Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 NAM is better for tomorrow, but not enough ridging out ahead of it to really get some good inflow into this. Perhaps the Cape could see a couple of inches out of it. Still with the vortmax south and a cold airmass..maybe we can squeeze an inch out of it. Maybe a little more in some areas..esp south. It looks like the type of feature where most of the lift is in the 700-500 layer. Probably one of those things where the precip shield it patchy, but there is a smaller, concentrated area of snow that gets a few people with an inch or more. NAM actually has decent lift and RH in the 850-500 layer which is a good start, but I wish we had more inflow from the south or even east. If it goes south of us I think we lock in a couple inches for everyone..if it rides right over the top..then it's more scattered 1-2 amts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If it goes south of us I think we lock in a couple inches for everyone..if it rides right over the top..then it's more scattered 1-2 amts The problem is the s/w ahead of it doesn't allow it to amplify much and it stays positively tilted before exiting the coast. Normally that would be a great track of us if it was neg tilted like most of them go before reaching here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If it goes south of us I think we lock in a couple inches for everyone..if it rides right over the top..then it's more scattered 1-2 amts i may have to skip tomorrow so i don't miss the good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i may have to skip tomorrow so i don't miss the good snows. LOL..even if you had to leave the kids home alone with an Asian babysitter who spoke no English..you are still coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 LOL..even if you had to leave the kids home alone with an Asian babysitter who spoke no English..you are still coming hopefully it doesn't snow all that much. i don't want to drive back 2 hours on snow-covered roads after being at FMs for 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 1-3" south coast of RI and SE MA/Cape Cod? Not sure about anywhere else didn't really look but if the NAM isn't smoking rope a classic little last minute deal with a single band (surrounded by snow showers) that puts out some decent snows. Nice jump in 12 hours towards a better solution. If the NAM isn't cooking it again it's hinting at a good 6 hour period of snow in a narrow line somewhere around the Cape. Last few hours are light stuff, but room for change. If we're going to turn this into a 95-96 deal this will turn into 1-3/2-4 tonight and a solid 2-4/3-6 tomorrow ...hot dogging it but that's the way it went that year around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 1-3" south coast of RI and SE MA/Cape Cod? Not sure about anywhere else didn't really look but if the NAM isn't smoking rope a classic little last minute deal with a single band (surrounded by snow showers) that puts out some decent snows. Nice jump in 12 hours towards a better solution. If the NAM isn't cooking it again it's hinting at a good 6 hour period of snow in a narrow line somewhere around the Cape. Last few hours are light stuff, but room for change. If we're going to turn this into a 95-96 deal this will turn into 1-3/2-4 tonight and a solid 2-4/3-6 tomorrow ...hot dogging it but that's the way it went that year around this time. i think 1-3 is reasonable right now. there's one lone sref member that smokes us...relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hopefully it doesn't snow all that much. i don't want to drive back 2 hours on snow-covered roads after being at FMs for 5 hours. I hear ya..and wouldn't want to either..but if we see 1-3 widespread over most of SNe which is looking likely..that shouldn'tbe enough to not drive in. If it was 3-6 or something..then we'd probably have to reschedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i think 1-3 is reasonable right now. there's one lone sref member that smokes us...relatively speaking. Seems fair, gun to head I'd go Dusting to 2" after just looking at the RGEM/GFS. We'll see still plenty of time to change. Then again it's 1.5 days away, and this doesn't look terrible for a light hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z GFS likes the Cape for 1-3" though BL could be a bit marginal so it would be wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Seems fair, gun to head I'd go Dusting to 2" after just looking at the RGEM/GFS. We'll see still plenty of time to change. Then again it's 1.5 days away, and this doesn't look terrible for a light hit. 1.5 days? It would be tomorrow afternoon and evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z GFS likes the Cape for 1-3" though BL could be a bit marginal so it would be wet. Thanks Will. It's a marginal situation. Most everything seems to overperform this year. Hoping we can keep the same s/w track but maybe back away from the slight weakening trend there and end up with a decent little quick hit. GFS has the same signal displaced a few miles south/east. The main "band" breaks out but there's a more signifcant band aligned NNW to SSE somewhere either over SE MA or just south that rotates to a west to east position at one point. GFS would have the nose of it just barely on the eastern cape, NAM has it over. Be an interesting watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 1.5 days? It would be tomorrow afternoon and evening That's 36 hours from the model run Best lift/precip on the NAM centers around h36. That's where I got the 1.5 from. That's about 1.4 days further out than the NAM and GFS have been reliable for as of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It seems like there is a lot of light snow all through NY and PA...none of that is gonna make it in here later today for everyone to see up to an inch or so??? The stuff is light but it looks like it is moving to the east pretty steadily.....there isnt much wind so its upper level stuff and not lake effect right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Dim sunshine and snizzle in Westboro at 2:28 pm Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 had not so dim sunhine and a few tiny weenie flurries in spfd off and on over the past few hours, feels balmy out with no wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z NAM says what snows. Maybe some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 had not so dim sunhine and a few tiny weenie flurries in spfd off and on over the past few hours, feels balmy out with no wind Thought the same thing went I went outside. I guess I'm to the point where 31F with some sun feels balmy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Bob very telling re state of modeling that a simple clipper cannot be placed within 100 miles at 24/36....pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Bob very telling re state of modeling that a simple clipper cannot be placed within 100 miles at 24/36....pathetic I liked it better when everyone obsessed over the Blizzard and missed the morning snowstorm we knew was coming, got big kudos from the big boss CEO for the heads up on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Thought the same thing went I went outside. I guess I'm to the point where 31F with some sun feels balmy now. I swear I had to turn on the AC for a little while in my car because my 4 year old daughter was claiming she was "sweating" Weenie flakes here... picked up a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I liked it better when everyone obsessed over the Blizzard and missed the morning snowstorm we knew was coming, got big kudos from the big boss CEO for the heads up on that one. So what's your call for Saturday? RGEM holds serve with a dusting to maybe 2" over a lot of SNE. Oh and the RUC would look great. Yeah yeah it's the RUC but even at 18hours the other night it had a better forecast than every global model at that point in time. The RUC doesn't bite on the south trend with the american 18z guidance. So I think we're still good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 So what's your call for Saturday? RGEM holds serve with a dusting to maybe 2" over a lot of SNE. Oh and the RUC would look great. Yeah yeah it's the RUC but even at 18hours the other night it had a better forecast than every global model at that point in time. I think we see widespread 1-3 tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I swear I had to turn on the AC for a little while in my car because my 4 year old daughter was claiming she was "sweating" Weenie flakes here... picked up a dusting Ah new england. lol..I walked out of school and thought "How is it snowing? It feels like it should be raining." I guess Im just used to the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 29 -sn radar looks pretty good especially for ri and se mass this evening, nice little coating to freshen things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Steady SN- the past hour w/ nothing showing on the radar. Lil' diamond like flakes. Cars and street coated. It just wants to be winter in NE this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Same stuff here for hours..... I guess I have 0.2" Steady SN- the past hour w/ nothing showing on the radar. Lil' diamond like flakes. Cars and street coated. It just wants to be winter in NE this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Very light snow here...just enough to dust the roads once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Very light snow here...just enough to dust the roads once again. Same. Hopefully will cover some yellow snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Be lucky to see flurries/dusting with the Saturday clipper. What looked kind of promising a few days ago has been uglier in stages. I guess the good news for SNE is that the trend was south...and probably will be with the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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