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Feb 1-2 Upstate NY / North Country Major Winter Storm


CNYWxGuy

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I think the nam is way over doing the overrunning precip, i hope im wrong though.. This is almost like when the nam wanted to give cny 1" of qpf from the inverted trough..

Yeah, I tend to agree as it is in fact the wettest model. I would give it the benefit of a doubt being a meso-scale model if not for the simple fact that there is a marked difference in performance between the short-range and long-range NAM.

That said, lets see what the 0z GFS has to offer...

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kalb warms up to -2c at hr 81 and then drops to -5 c by hr 84

http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kalb.txt

theres a sneaky warm layer around 800 mb on the 00z nam but i guess its way too far out to think about that now lol

the 00z gfs is south of the 18z run with the low going over northwest NJ to southeast MA.. it looks like 0 850 line never goes north of the thruway.

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NYC/Philly region storm thread imploded!! I guess the Accuwx boards must have crashed, lol! Our region has some pretty darn objective analysis that goes on here, from mets and non-mets alike....congrats to us!!

Not much to add, as it seems from a general standpoint ATT, the models have not gone too jumpy on us today, which at day 3+ is all we should want at this point, (as long as you're "gettin' some" ;) )

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The 5 day loop on there is cool.... I see the GGEM has a good .5"+ area over us on Tuesday with a precip. max of .75. Nice to see the NAM isn't alone on that because I was skeptical until I saw some other model support. Maybe we will get a nice early treat on Tuesday.

wow thats the absolute perfect track for this area it can't be right.

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The 5 day loop on there is cool.... I see the GGEM has a good .5"+ area over us on Tuesday with a precip. max of .75. Nice to see the NAM isn't alone on that because I was skeptical until I saw some other model support. Maybe we will get a nice early treat on Tuesday.

Yeah its a nice appetizer on both models but i'm afraid that its either going to be round 1 or round 2 depending on the exact track and PV interaction. Lets hope the CMC is right because we would probably be looking at around 20" lol.

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The 5 day loop on there is cool.... I see the GGEM has a good .5"+ area over us on Tuesday with a precip. max of .75. Nice to see the NAM isn't alone on that because I was skeptical until I saw some other model support. Maybe we will get a nice early treat on Tuesday.

Yeah I just had a look at the run on E-wall. Between the O-R and main event combined, it looks like everyone is over an inch of QPF and all snow, with highest amounts along / S of I-90. Biggest winner looks like the CD with over 1.50".

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Just going to toss this out there that beyond this event there is nothing but potential for the foreseeable future on the models. If any of us happened to get "screwed" on this upcoming event (relatively speaking), I think there is going to plenty of more opportunities for big ticket items to impact the region in the month of February...

Maybe my starting this thread tripped the trigger after all... :guitar:

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From the early vantage point, the S Tier is shaping up to be a tough forecast right down to the wire in terms of all-snow vs. potential mixing at some point or another. I can see this coming down to a game of mere miles, and my location being 12 miles northwest / 350ft higher than the city of Binghamton could end up paying dividends moreso than usual...

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