LakeEffectKing Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Old Eta would diminish fears of any mixing, verbatim, but would screw our S. Canadian brothers: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think the nam is way over doing the overrunning precip, i hope im wrong though.. This is almost like when the nam wanted to give cny 1" of qpf from the inverted trough.. Yeah, I tend to agree as it is in fact the wettest model. I would give it the benefit of a doubt being a meso-scale model if not for the simple fact that there is a marked difference in performance between the short-range and long-range NAM. That said, lets see what the 0z GFS has to offer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Old Eta would diminish fears of any mixing, verbatim, but would screw our S. Canadian brothers: i was gonna say AND NORTHERN NEW YORKERS but it does find a way to cutoff the snow right at the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Guys i live right on the PA/NY border, do you really believe the NAM? I would honestly go with a blend of the GFS and Euro. You think i have to worry more about freezing rain or heavy snow? Personally my area does really well for snow in these types of situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 kalb warms up to -2c at hr 81 and then drops to -5 c by hr 84 http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kalb.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nam P-type map at h84: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 kalb warms up to -2c at hr 81 and then drops to -5 c by hr 84 http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kalb.txt theres a sneaky warm layer around 800 mb on the 00z nam but i guess its way too far out to think about that now lol the 00z gfs is south of the 18z run with the low going over northwest NJ to southeast MA.. it looks like 0 850 line never goes north of the thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 yea the gfs and nam look pretty good for some..I want to be 25-50miles away from the sleet line Im not that far away lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 the 00z gfs shows that despite what happens to our SW, when the storm gets up here, its all about the PV interaction. i dont think anyone should be discounting snow in the southern part of NYS at all. just as i am not discounting a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I did notice the 18z gefs was more bullish with the OR precip..Its a little far south for ncny .. but southern tier would do good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NYC/Philly region storm thread imploded!! I guess the Accuwx boards must have crashed, lol! Our region has some pretty darn objective analysis that goes on here, from mets and non-mets alike....congrats to us!! Not much to add, as it seems from a general standpoint ATT, the models have not gone too jumpy on us today, which at day 3+ is all we should want at this point, (as long as you're "gettin' some" ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 LOL nogaps came in SE and gives nyc a snowstorm, and i already see hugging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ggem is still further SE, its hard to tell on black and white but look alright.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 ggem is still further SE, its hard to tell on black and white but look alright.. Yeah, I can't stand those inferior graphics, not to mention the values are based off the metric scale. Looked like a heavy hit for I-90 / S. E-wall should be out shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Potential storm? SYNOPTIC? Say what? 2 days later...."OMG screwed again **** **** ****...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, I can't stand those inferior graphics, not to mention the values are based off the metric scale. Looked like a moderate-to-heavy hit for I-90 / S. E-wall should be out shortly... to me it looked very close to what the GFS 00z run, but the graphics are horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 00z GEFS are further north than 18z and the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Use the big old black and white maps. They are very easy to read. I don't understad why they put out such small color maps. Yeah, I can't stand those inferior graphics, not to mention the values are based off the metric scale. Looked like a heavy hit for I-90 / S. E-wall should be out shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html wow thats the absolute perfect track for this area it can't be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 5 day loop on there is cool.... I see the GGEM has a good .5"+ area over us on Tuesday with a precip. max of .75. Nice to see the NAM isn't alone on that because I was skeptical until I saw some other model support. Maybe we will get a nice early treat on Tuesday. wow thats the absolute perfect track for this area it can't be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 5 day loop on there is cool.... I see the GGEM has a good .5"+ area over us on Tuesday with a precip. max of .75. Nice to see the NAM isn't alone on that because I was skeptical until I saw some other model support. Maybe we will get a nice early treat on Tuesday. Yeah its a nice appetizer on both models but i'm afraid that its either going to be round 1 or round 2 depending on the exact track and PV interaction. Lets hope the CMC is right because we would probably be looking at around 20" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 5 day loop on there is cool.... I see the GGEM has a good .5"+ area over us on Tuesday with a precip. max of .75. Nice to see the NAM isn't alone on that because I was skeptical until I saw some other model support. Maybe we will get a nice early treat on Tuesday. Yeah I just had a look at the run on E-wall. Between the O-R and main event combined, it looks like everyone is over an inch of QPF and all snow, with highest amounts along / S of I-90. Biggest winner looks like the CD with over 1.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just going to toss this out there that beyond this event there is nothing but potential for the foreseeable future on the models. If any of us happened to get "screwed" on this upcoming event (relatively speaking), I think there is going to plenty of more opportunities for big ticket items to impact the region in the month of February... Maybe my starting this thread tripped the trigger after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Spent the day skiing and snowshoeing in the ADK High Peaks and came home to some nice model runs. I'll take a closer look tomorrow. Shortwave makes landfall tonight. Let the data ingesting begin. Night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well, February would be a good time for our first Winter Storm Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=BGM From the early vantage point, the S Tier is shaping up to be a tough forecast right down to the wire in terms of all-snow vs. potential mixing at some point or another. I can see this coming down to a game of mere miles, and my location being 12 miles northwest / 350ft higher than the city of Binghamton could end up paying dividends moreso than usual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 U dont need one with 106" I have yet to have 1 also..Just a couple LES WARN/ADV for me so far this yr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 00z Euro is almost identical to 12z but it looks like the precip shield extends a bit further north... 0 C line still south of the thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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