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Feb 1-2 Upstate NY / North Country Major Winter Storm


CNYWxGuy

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for NNY/eastern ontario/SW quebec

latest 18z runs show the BZ type runner is transiitoning into a full fledged midwest blizzard

of course this potential has been on the table for some time given the BZ and if a wave was going to take full advantage...it all depended on how the energies interacted out west....

a BZ runner wont get it done this far north at this time of year, but a strong southern plains storm could.....note the 18z models are now hinting at rapid intensification possibiities for that storm, which has quite the potential to be historic for the midwest if its ceiling is attained. unfortunately it brings the risk of increased mixing in southern NYS.

regardless, its too early to say what the outcome of all this will be, but it showes the varying solutions possible depending on what happens out west.

i believe extra data will be ingested at 00z, and by tomorrows 12z runs the energies will be onshore and in the process of phasing, so that should be our first solid estimate of where this storm might end up.

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for NNY/eastern ontario/SW quebec

latest 18z runs show the BZ type runner is transiitoning into a full fledged midwest blizzard

of course this potential has been on the table for some time given the BZ and if a wave was going to take full advantage...it all depended on how the energies interacted out west....

a BZ runner wont get it done this far north at this time of year, but a strong southern plains storm could.....note the 18z models are now hinting at rapid intensification possibiities for that storm, which has quite the potential to be historic for the midwest if its ceiling is attained. unfortunately it brings the risk of increased mixing in southern NYS.

regardless, its too early to say what the outcome of all this will be, but it showes the varying solutions possible depending on what happens out west.

i believe extra data will be ingested at 00z, and by tomorrows 12z runs the energies will be onshore and in the process of phasing, so that should be our first solid estimate of where this storm might end up.

Look on the bright side though - it's looking much better for us than it did a few days ago. If we can pull this off, it's almost as if it's fate - 2 years to the day almost after the February 2009 mega bust.

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I'm ALWAYS hesitant of going big snows south of I-90 (at least) with the SWFE's.....in the last decade, I remember quite a few events that just seemed to indicate solid snows for Upstate region, only to go pretty quickly to IP....even at pretty low boundary temps. And I can't recall even one storm of this nature pumping 16" in the CNY area, via this type setup......I VERY leary, to say the least.....the upshot is that we have a pretty decent HP to the NE, and the PV looks to hold it in JUST long enough for us, ATT....but again, leariness prevails....and even moreso, with the very subtle trends in the models.

The consensus storm track is highly atypical, and subject to large variances in sensible wx with small shifts in track. Storms approaching as such very often tend to cut up the SLRV, or (JUST a bit further south), redevelop off the LI bight, snuffing out the vertical forcings back to the west rather quickly.

Things should become quite a bit more clearer (hopefull) once the interaction between the two s/w's resolves itself, and the system shows it's ejection heading and potential intensity....along with any potential subtleties in the configuration of the PV.....

I may have to take down the "NON-STORM" announcement!!! .......<fingers crossed>..... ;):snowman:

My excitement level dropped substantially after seeing the latest model runs. This looks more and more like another disappointment for the CNY area. No sour grapes from me in regards to those who get the big snows...a hearty congratulations to you folks. :thumbsup:

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My excitement level dropped substantially after seeing the latest model runs. This looks more and more like another disappointment for the CNY area. No sour grapes from me in regards to those who get the big snows...a hearty congratulations to you folks. :thumbsup:

I certainly don't want to dampen the anticipation TOO much, there certainly are some strong reasons to suspect a LP track as consensus depicts....and we are in a timeframe that ens. means really have their highest value (or near to), and here is the 18z GFS ens. mean at T+96:

18zgfsensemblep12096.gif

Not too shabby!

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I certainly don't want to dampen the anticipation TOO much, there certainly are some strong reasons to suspect a LP track as consensus depicts....and we are in a timeframe that ens. means really have their highest value (or near to), and here is the 18z GFS ens. mean at T+96:

18zgfsensemblep12096.gif

Not too shabby!

Methinks that after reviewing the 0z runs, the axesmileys will be in full force. Storms that track west of the Apps are snow to ice to rain in CNY.

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I don't think the PV position and depth of the cold air in place will allow this to take a classic BUF => SLV track. Yeah the primary could get to like northwest PA in an extreme scenario which would mean snow to PL and maybe FZRA I-90 south, but it would squeeze out underneath us then and not allow plain rain. Think front end dump. :) between the precurser on Tuesday and the first part of the main event it can be a fair amount of snow. If that gets capped with other frozen ptypes then so be it.....

Things could still trend a bit south and keep us mostly snow along I-90......

IMO these latest runs are the north-most scenario. I don't think we are looking at a low over ART or something.

Methinks that after reviewing the 0z runs, the axesmileys will be in full force. Storms that track west of the Apps are snow to ice to rain in CNY.

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looks like good snow growth on the gfs

One can't go by omega's alone for nice dendritic growth. This is where bufkit comes in handy. If ya don't have it... google it... it is a free program and fabulous!

For good snow growth i like to see it below 600mb, matching up with the good omegas, and max rh.

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And if the 12z EURO was right last week I and other Poconos/NE/CPA people would have been clearing out 2 feet of snow this week. :scooter:

Yeah.... i would not have minded that one bit... but NYC and BOS keep hogging it all..

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I don't think the PV position and depth of the cold air in place will allow this to take a classic BUF => SLV track. Yeah the primary could get to like northwest PA in an extreme scenario which would mean snow to PL and maybe FZRA I-90 south, but it would squeeze out underneath us then and not allow plain rain. Think front end dump. :) between the precurser on Tuesday and the first part of the main event it can be a fair amount of snow. If that gets capped with other frozen ptypes then so be it.....

Things could still trend a bit south and keep us mostly snow along I-90......

IMO these latest runs are the north-most scenario. I don't think we are looking at a low over ART or something.

Hey Logan, do you think I could see 4-6" here in Ottawa?

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any potential maps from anyone?? I honestly think the robust HP to the north keeps this thing from cutting to far into the lakes

I'll probably draw up a 1st-guess at snowfall amounts for atleast the over-running event by Sunday Evening.

And if the 12z EURO was right last week I and other Poconos/NE/CPA people would have been clearing out 2 feet of snow this week. :scooter:

Lol yeah, that was a buzzkill. A multiple-run ECM / CMC tag-team taking a Miller-A up the coastal plain in the T84-120 range and dumping 1.75-2.50 QPF over the Appalachians. O well...

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0z NAM 24-Hour QPF for the over-running still suggest a high-end Advisory / low-end Warning snowfall along / S of I-90, although not as much QPF as 18z run. 850 0c line is strattling the NY-PA line, so the S Tier is close to mixing / or mixes verbatim. FWIW... BGM pretty much tossed the NAM-temp profiles out as too warm, so who knows...

post-538-0-59842000-1296355510.gif

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I wonder if the nam cutting as far west as it does is a good thing..It kinda keeps the 850's in the same spot..

The PV is a tough bird on all these models....the energy is rotating down in such a fashion to lock higher pressures in pretty well, and really tighten the baroclinicity.

The h200 winds show a nice RRQ/LRQ couplet overhead as our system "digs" northeastward, aiding in uplift/overall ML cooling, which helps our thicknesses.

In this type of situation (verbatum, as many of the models show) we will have a modestly narrow stripe of "training/heavier snows", 25-50 miles north of the sleet line, and very often snow growth can be phenomenal. I'd look for some reports (where ever this zone sets up) to see half dollar type flake size....with traditional sizes to the north...

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