Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 for NNY/eastern ontario/SW quebec latest 18z runs show the BZ type runner is transiitoning into a full fledged midwest blizzard of course this potential has been on the table for some time given the BZ and if a wave was going to take full advantage...it all depended on how the energies interacted out west.... a BZ runner wont get it done this far north at this time of year, but a strong southern plains storm could.....note the 18z models are now hinting at rapid intensification possibiities for that storm, which has quite the potential to be historic for the midwest if its ceiling is attained. unfortunately it brings the risk of increased mixing in southern NYS. regardless, its too early to say what the outcome of all this will be, but it showes the varying solutions possible depending on what happens out west. i believe extra data will be ingested at 00z, and by tomorrows 12z runs the energies will be onshore and in the process of phasing, so that should be our first solid estimate of where this storm might end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 for NNY/eastern ontario/SW quebec latest 18z runs show the BZ type runner is transiitoning into a full fledged midwest blizzard of course this potential has been on the table for some time given the BZ and if a wave was going to take full advantage...it all depended on how the energies interacted out west.... a BZ runner wont get it done this far north at this time of year, but a strong southern plains storm could.....note the 18z models are now hinting at rapid intensification possibiities for that storm, which has quite the potential to be historic for the midwest if its ceiling is attained. unfortunately it brings the risk of increased mixing in southern NYS. regardless, its too early to say what the outcome of all this will be, but it showes the varying solutions possible depending on what happens out west. i believe extra data will be ingested at 00z, and by tomorrows 12z runs the energies will be onshore and in the process of phasing, so that should be our first solid estimate of where this storm might end up. Look on the bright side though - it's looking much better for us than it did a few days ago. If we can pull this off, it's almost as if it's fate - 2 years to the day almost after the February 2009 mega bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm ALWAYS hesitant of going big snows south of I-90 (at least) with the SWFE's.....in the last decade, I remember quite a few events that just seemed to indicate solid snows for Upstate region, only to go pretty quickly to IP....even at pretty low boundary temps. And I can't recall even one storm of this nature pumping 16" in the CNY area, via this type setup......I VERY leary, to say the least.....the upshot is that we have a pretty decent HP to the NE, and the PV looks to hold it in JUST long enough for us, ATT....but again, leariness prevails....and even moreso, with the very subtle trends in the models. The consensus storm track is highly atypical, and subject to large variances in sensible wx with small shifts in track. Storms approaching as such very often tend to cut up the SLRV, or (JUST a bit further south), redevelop off the LI bight, snuffing out the vertical forcings back to the west rather quickly. Things should become quite a bit more clearer (hopefull) once the interaction between the two s/w's resolves itself, and the system shows it's ejection heading and potential intensity....along with any potential subtleties in the configuration of the PV..... I may have to take down the "NON-STORM" announcement!!! .......<fingers crossed>..... My excitement level dropped substantially after seeing the latest model runs. This looks more and more like another disappointment for the CNY area. No sour grapes from me in regards to those who get the big snows...a hearty congratulations to you folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yea the 18z was ugly, i dont even wanna look at it..Takes away half my precip and turns it into ice..That i do not want lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GEFS is much colder then the OP.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 My excitement level dropped substantially after seeing the latest model runs. This looks more and more like another disappointment for the CNY area. No sour grapes from me in regards to those who get the big snows...a hearty congratulations to you folks. I certainly don't want to dampen the anticipation TOO much, there certainly are some strong reasons to suspect a LP track as consensus depicts....and we are in a timeframe that ens. means really have their highest value (or near to), and here is the 18z GFS ens. mean at T+96: Not too shabby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I certainly don't want to dampen the anticipation TOO much, there certainly are some strong reasons to suspect a LP track as consensus depicts....and we are in a timeframe that ens. means really have their highest value (or near to), and here is the 18z GFS ens. mean at T+96: Not too shabby! Methinks that after reviewing the 0z runs, the axesmileys will be in full force. Storms that track west of the Apps are snow to ice to rain in CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't think the PV position and depth of the cold air in place will allow this to take a classic BUF => SLV track. Yeah the primary could get to like northwest PA in an extreme scenario which would mean snow to PL and maybe FZRA I-90 south, but it would squeeze out underneath us then and not allow plain rain. Think front end dump. between the precurser on Tuesday and the first part of the main event it can be a fair amount of snow. If that gets capped with other frozen ptypes then so be it..... Things could still trend a bit south and keep us mostly snow along I-90...... IMO these latest runs are the north-most scenario. I don't think we are looking at a low over ART or something. Methinks that after reviewing the 0z runs, the axesmileys will be in full force. Storms that track west of the Apps are snow to ice to rain in CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It does go west of the apps but then it gets stoped in its track and heads east..The 12z gfs did that before reaching PA, the 18z does it in NW pa lol On the 12z the 0cline dosent get north of the LHV.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 looks like good snow growth on the gfs One can't go by omega's alone for nice dendritic growth. This is where bufkit comes in handy. If ya don't have it... google it... it is a free program and fabulous! For good snow growth i like to see it below 600mb, matching up with the good omegas, and max rh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The cold always holds much better from UCA eastward in any event.... It does go west of the apps but then it gets stoped in its track and heads east..The 12z gfs did that before reaching PA, the 18z does it in NW pa lol On the 12z the 0cline dosent get north of the LHV.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z euro brings the potential for mixing as far north as KALB to oneonta to elmira line... still think the 12z run tomorrow will put this thing to rest regarding track etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 through 240hrs if the 12z euro had its way... then we'd be up near 2.5" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 When possible i'll post what I see from the euro, as we have the Accuwx pro at work. Unfortunately, i'd end up in hot water if I posted any of the gfx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 any potential maps from anyone?? I honestly think the robust HP to the north keeps this thing from cutting to far into the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z euro brings the potential for mixing as far north as KALB to oneonta to elmira line... still think the 12z run tomorrow will put this thing to rest regarding track etc. And if the 12z EURO was right last week I and other Poconos/NE/CPA people would have been clearing out 2 feet of snow this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 And if the 12z EURO was right last week I and other Poconos/NE/CPA people would have been clearing out 2 feet of snow this week. Yeah.... i would not have minded that one bit... but NYC and BOS keep hogging it all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't think the PV position and depth of the cold air in place will allow this to take a classic BUF => SLV track. Yeah the primary could get to like northwest PA in an extreme scenario which would mean snow to PL and maybe FZRA I-90 south, but it would squeeze out underneath us then and not allow plain rain. Think front end dump. between the precurser on Tuesday and the first part of the main event it can be a fair amount of snow. If that gets capped with other frozen ptypes then so be it..... Things could still trend a bit south and keep us mostly snow along I-90...... IMO these latest runs are the north-most scenario. I don't think we are looking at a low over ART or something. Hey Logan, do you think I could see 4-6" here in Ottawa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 any potential maps from anyone?? I honestly think the robust HP to the north keeps this thing from cutting to far into the lakes I'll probably draw up a 1st-guess at snowfall amounts for atleast the over-running event by Sunday Evening. And if the 12z EURO was right last week I and other Poconos/NE/CPA people would have been clearing out 2 feet of snow this week. Lol yeah, that was a buzzkill. A multiple-run ECM / CMC tag-team taking a Miller-A up the coastal plain in the T84-120 range and dumping 1.75-2.50 QPF over the Appalachians. O well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM still bullish on the overrunning precip, has a nice little bullseye over the area with .5-.75 in a 6 hr period .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 over running precip on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z NAM 24-Hour QPF for the over-running still suggest a high-end Advisory / low-end Warning snowfall along / S of I-90, although not as much QPF as 18z run. 850 0c line is strattling the NY-PA line, so the S Tier is close to mixing / or mixes verbatim. FWIW... BGM pretty much tossed the NAM-temp profiles out as too warm, so who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It seems like a good shot to me....old primary pushes a good moisture surge up even if it dies and gives way ultimately. Hey Logan, do you think I could see 4-6" here in Ottawa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I wonder if the nam cutting as far west as it does is a good thing..It kinda keeps the 850's in the same spot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hr 84 nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 heres the nam at 84 hours. that quite the temperature gradient at 850 hPa. it's definitely warm for round 2 but round 1 provides warning snow over most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I wonder if the nam cutting as far west as it does is a good thing..It kinda keeps the 850's in the same spot.. The PV is a tough bird on all these models....the energy is rotating down in such a fashion to lock higher pressures in pretty well, and really tighten the baroclinicity. The h200 winds show a nice RRQ/LRQ couplet overhead as our system "digs" northeastward, aiding in uplift/overall ML cooling, which helps our thicknesses. In this type of situation (verbatum, as many of the models show) we will have a modestly narrow stripe of "training/heavier snows", 25-50 miles north of the sleet line, and very often snow growth can be phenomenal. I'd look for some reports (where ever this zone sets up) to see half dollar type flake size....with traditional sizes to the north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 In looking at the 0z NAM text-soundings for the Over-running event... Its all snow and here is exact QPF... ALB... .75 BGM... .75 UCA... .63 SYR... .56 ROC... .39 BUF... .38 ART... .17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think the nam is way over doing the overrunning precip, i hope im wrong though.. This is almost like when the nam wanted to give cny 1" of qpf from the inverted trough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 cobb data table shows all snow with the 1st and start of the 2nd system for kuca. 8" with the 1st and almost 3" with the 2nd.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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