CNYWxGuy Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 129 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 VALID 12Z TUE FEB 01 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 05 2011 ..WIDESPREAD MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK... LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN A STRONG MEAN RIDGE FROM THE ERN PAC NWD THRU THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME CHANGES IN SHAPE OCCUR AS SHRTWVS ROUND THE RIDGE. ASSOC POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES ARE FCST TO BE STRONGEST OFF THE PAC NW COAST BY D+8. FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THIS FEATURE... GUIDANCE DISPLAYS AN ELONGATED MEAN TROF FROM ERN CANADA SWWD. ONE OR MORE INSTANCES OF FLOW SEPARATION WITHIN THIS MEAN TROF WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO TYPICAL DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES. WITH THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FCST TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE PLAINS TUE ONWARD... MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAD BEEN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AND CONTINUITY CHANGES RECENTLY BUT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE TOWARD A COMMON SOLN THOUGH SOME TRACK/TIMING DIFFS REMAIN. GFS RUNS HAVE STABILIZED OVER THE PAST DAY WHILE THE 12Z AND NEW 00Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE ADJUSTED STEADILY EWD FROM THE 00Z/28 RUN THAT HAD DEFINED THE WRN SIDE OF THE SOLN ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE SPREAD OVER THE ERN STATES AND BY EARLY THU THE CANADIAN BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AVERAGE OFF THE NERN COAST. THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS PROVIDE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR TRACK/TIMING AND ALSO FOLLOW PREVIOUS CONTINUITY EXTREMELY WELL... SO THEIR SOLNS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THIS SYSTEM. ...AFTERNOON UPDATE... NEW 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AFTER DAY 4 WED THAN PRIOR RUNS AND OTHER MODELS AND ITS ENS MEAN. 12Z CMC/UKMET AND ENS MEANS REMAIN PREFERRED. NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON FINALS FROM PRIOR HPC PRELIM PROGS. EXPECT A BROAD HEAVY SNOW SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING. HEAVY RAINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAUSCH / ROSENSTEIN http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z nogaps http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml Its pretty warm but it is the nogaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 JMA Total qpf is pretty much 1-1.5 for most of the state.. Total accumulated precip from now until Thurs. 12z, with very little before the 2 day event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Buffalo: ...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW TUES AND WED...THIS PERIOD BEGINS ON THE QUIET SIDE AS SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT WINDS DOWN SUN NT AND MON AS A STRONG EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS FROM NW SUN EVE TO NE MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREV THOUGHTS FOR CHC POPS SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO...GRADUALLY PUSHING WEST TOWARD NIAG FRONTIER MON MORNING WITH NE FLOW...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMS. COULD SEE A BIT OF SUN ON MONDAY AS WELL. THEN...AFTER TWO MONTHS OF NOTHING BUT NEAR CONSTANT NICKEL AND DIME LAKE SNOWS...WE HAVE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS WE START THE NEW MONTH...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TWO THREATS FOR APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL. THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN ONE FOR WED...BUT WE ALSO HAVE A MORE SUBTLE THREAT FOR TUES MORNING NOW AS WELL. BAROCLINICITY WILL STRENGTHEN AS 850 MB TEMP ISOTHERMS TIGHTEN UP MON NT INTO WED...AND A STRONG JET WILL STREAK ACROSS PA ON TUESDAY... PLACING OUR AREA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A QUICK BURST OF SNOW LATE MON NT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUES. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH A GOOD 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE BULK OF OUR CWA...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF MAX IT OUT ALONG NY-PA BORDER. IN ANY CASE...WILL INCREASE POPS DRASTICALLY FROM 10 TO 60 FROM ABOUT 10Z-18Z TUES AND WE COULD SEE A SOLID 1-3/2-4 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...LESSER CHC AND LOWER AMTS E OF LK ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE RACES OFF TO NEW ENG TUES AFTERNOON AND WE GET INTO A LULL LATER TUES AND MUCH OF TUES NT BEFORE THE REAL ACTION BEGINS... MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A MAJOR STORM LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUES TO NEAR CINCI BY EARLY WED. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM TRANSFERS TO THE COAST...BUT BOTH GFS AND EC DELAY THIS PROCESS AND KEEP THE "PRIMARY" LOW THE MAIN PLAYER UP INTO EASTERN OHIO...WITH ITS POTENT JET STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A SLUG OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH QPF UP ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NY FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 18Z WED. EC HAS BEEN ON THE HEAVIER SIDE WITH A STRIP OVER VERY HEAVY QPF...1-1.5 INCH...FROM CHI TO DET TO YYZ AND BUF...BUT GFS LOOK MORE REALISTIC WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAVY WARM ADVECTION SNOW WED MORNING...THEN SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT AS A DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS INTO ONTARIO WHILE COASTAL GETS GOING LATER WED AND WED EVE...THEN SOME WRAPAROUND SWINGS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA WED NT. THIS IS STILL NOT ETCHED IN STONE AS 12Z GEM KEEP BULK OF SNOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MAX PRECIP NEAR NY-PA BORDER (AN INCH) BUT A SOLID 0.5 TO SOUTH SHORE OF LK ONTARIO. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WARMER MODEL...BUT EVEN THIS IS A BIT COLDER THAN LAST RUN...WITH 850 MB ZERO ISOTHERM JUST TOUCHING OUR SRN TIER FOR AWHILE WED SO A LITTLE SLEET COULDNT BE RULED OUT. ALL OF THIS IS STILL A GOOD 84-96 HOURS OUT...SO CERTAINLY CANNOT GET TOO SPECIFIC. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR LATE TUES NT AND WED AND THERE IS AT LEAST AN EVEN CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW AREAWIDE FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER SEASON.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 looks like most models are picking up the overrunning precip better today.. Nam still gets us good with it. .About .35-.75 so far through hr 72.. Nice little "bonus" snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Im guessing this is a high way for the moisture lol I no nothing about this at all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z NAM continues to be rather robust with the precursor over-running on Tuesday... Right or wrong, here is the 24 Hr QPF thru H84 before the main event even arrives... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This is just from the over running precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM sim radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 BGM update... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 346 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRIER AIR FOR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVE AS A COLD ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH REMAINS OVER CANADA KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS COLD FOR THE OVERRUNNING SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER NOW WITH QPF AROUND HALF AN INCH RIGHT THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH ADVISORY AMOUNTS IF THESE LIQUID AMOUNTS VERIFY. STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR A WATCH. FOR TIMING AND AMOUNTS LEANED TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE EURO. NAM IS FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. IN ADDITION IT IS ALSO MUCH WARMER. EVEN THE COLDER MODELS MIGHT HAVE SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. WITH THE NAM THIS MIX WOULD MAKE IT INTO THE SRN TIER WHICH DOES NOT LOOK RIGHT WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE START OF THIS EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z NAM BUFKIT has 9.7" of WAA snow here! Holy crap! 11.8" for KBUF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I hope my 2 miles north of i-90 helps You're pretty much due east of me then. 2 miles here also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Let's hope the models run cooler in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 SIGH,KEEP ME UPDATED IM AT WORK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This is the most excited I have been about a storm since last February near the end of the month. I may even do a side by side model analysis tomorrow evening if we don't have the sudden 200 mile jump one way or the other that we have been accustomed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I just hope that warm air aloft doesn't interfere as much as I think it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS qpf http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p36_102l.gif The 0cline gets right up to i-90 then retreats, maybe a little mixing on the run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Albany looks like there gaining some confidence Tuesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%.Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 7. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 60% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES MORE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAYTUESDAY...WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MEASURABLE QPF THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM AROUND 0.15-0.25...AND COUPLED WITH ABOVE NORMAL SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS MAY RESULT IN SOME MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5 OR 3-6 INCHES. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR MODERATE SNOW IN THE HWO. QUITE A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE SNOW AS PTYPE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY SECOND AND STRONGER PART OF THE ONE-TWO WINTER WEATHER PUNCH FORNEXT WEEK WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL START OFF WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT... THEN LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES BY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ALL SNOW ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A HIGH LIQUID CONTENT EVENT WITH MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECASTING AN INCH OR MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I don't think it would be a problem at your latitude. I just hope that warm air aloft doesn't interfere as much as I think it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yea i think the furtherst north the mxing will get to is i-90.. KALB seems to be buying into the colder temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I don't think it would be a problem at your latitude. Most likely it will be south of I- 90...But the way this Winter has gone so far...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 how much snow did you get overnight-today? parents said they had a few inches in south ottawa. looks like a wicked band crossed the city a short while ago. I'd say we got about 2", maybe more. Deffinately more than any weather outlet was predicting. The snow came down pretty steadily between 8am-1:30pm. It looks like a winter wonderland out there, more like Narnia than Ottawa, lol. It looks like we'll surpass 50cm for the month. As for the mean temperature, hopefully Monday's forecasted cold high in the teens will hold it in the minus double digets celcius. Things are deffinately looking up for us aren't they? Imagine if we got hit by the storm this week, and next weekend? February 1993 redux! Interestingly, our snowpack is almost equal to what it was at the end of January 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS looks great for the southern dacks, that would make all the sled trails very good and open up Gore to 100 percent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z DGEX pretty far n / w in addition to being a moisture-loaded bomb... 24-Hour QPF.... and this doesn't even include the over-running Pre-Hour 84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z DGEX pretty far n / w in addition to being a moisture-loaded bomb... 24-Hour QPF.... and this doesn't even include the over-running Pre-Hour 84... That looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 looks like good snow growth on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Newly released HPC Snow Accumulation probabilities for the Over-running event 7PM Monday - 7PM Tuesday... 4+ Inches... 8+ Inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm ALWAYS hesitant of going big snows south of I-90 (at least) with the SWFE's.....in the last decade, I remember quite a few events that just seemed to indicate solid snows for Upstate region, only to go pretty quickly to IP....even at pretty low boundary temps. And I can't recall even one storm of this nature pumping 16" in the CNY area, via this type setup......I VERY leary, to say the least.....the upshot is that we have a pretty decent HP to the NE, and the PV looks to hold it in JUST long enough for us, ATT....but again, leariness prevails....and even moreso, with the very subtle trends in the models. The consensus storm track is highly atypical, and subject to large variances in sensible wx with small shifts in track. Storms approaching as such very often tend to cut up the SLRV, or (JUST a bit further south), redevelop off the LI bight, snuffing out the vertical forcings back to the west rather quickly. Things should become quite a bit more clearer (hopefull) once the interaction between the two s/w's resolves itself, and the system shows it's ejection heading and potential intensity....along with any potential subtleties in the configuration of the PV..... I may have to take down the "NON-STORM" announcement!!! .......<fingers crossed>..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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