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Feb 1-2 Upstate NY / North Country Major Winter Storm


CNYWxGuy

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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

129 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 01 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 05 2011

..WIDESPREAD MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK...

LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN A STRONG MEAN RIDGE FROM THE ERN PAC NWD THRU THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME CHANGES IN SHAPE OCCUR AS SHRTWVS ROUND THE RIDGE. ASSOC POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES ARE FCST TO BE STRONGEST OFF THE PAC NW COAST BY D+8. FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THIS FEATURE... GUIDANCE DISPLAYS AN ELONGATED MEAN TROF FROM ERN CANADA SWWD. ONE OR MORE INSTANCES OF FLOW SEPARATION WITHIN THIS MEAN TROF WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO TYPICAL DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES.

WITH THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FCST TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE PLAINS TUE ONWARD... MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAD BEEN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AND CONTINUITY CHANGES RECENTLY BUT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS APPEAR TO

BE STARTING TO CONVERGE TOWARD A COMMON SOLN THOUGH SOME TRACK/TIMING DIFFS REMAIN. GFS RUNS HAVE STABILIZED OVER THE PAST DAY WHILE THE 12Z AND NEW 00Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE ADJUSTED STEADILY EWD FROM THE 00Z/28 RUN THAT HAD DEFINED THE WRN SIDE OF THE SOLN ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE SPREAD OVER THE ERN STATES AND BY EARLY THU THE CANADIAN BECOMES SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AVERAGE OFF THE NERN COAST. THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS PROVIDE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR TRACK/TIMING AND ALSO FOLLOW PREVIOUS CONTINUITY EXTREMELY WELL... SO THEIR SOLNS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

...AFTERNOON UPDATE...

NEW 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AFTER DAY 4 WED THAN PRIOR RUNS AND OTHER MODELS AND ITS ENS MEAN. 12Z CMC/UKMET AND ENS MEANS REMAIN PREFERRED. NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON FINALS FROM PRIOR HPC PRELIM PROGS.

EXPECT A BROAD HEAVY SNOW SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING. HEAVY RAINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

RAUSCH / ROSENSTEIN

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

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Buffalo:

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW TUES AND WED...

THIS PERIOD BEGINS ON THE QUIET SIDE AS SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT

WINDS DOWN SUN NT AND MON AS A STRONG EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH

PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...RESULTING IN VEERING

WINDS FROM NW SUN EVE TO NE MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREV

THOUGHTS FOR CHC POPS SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO...GRADUALLY PUSHING WEST

TOWARD NIAG FRONTIER MON MORNING WITH NE FLOW...BUT LITTLE IF ANY

ACCUMS. COULD SEE A BIT OF SUN ON MONDAY AS WELL.

THEN...AFTER TWO MONTHS OF NOTHING BUT NEAR CONSTANT NICKEL AND DIME

LAKE SNOWS...WE HAVE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS WE START THE NEW

MONTH...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TWO THREATS FOR APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC

SNOWFALL. THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN ONE FOR WED...BUT WE ALSO HAVE A

MORE SUBTLE THREAT FOR TUES MORNING NOW AS WELL.

BAROCLINICITY WILL STRENGTHEN AS 850 MB TEMP ISOTHERMS TIGHTEN UP MON

NT INTO WED...AND A STRONG JET WILL STREAK ACROSS PA ON TUESDAY...

PLACING OUR AREA IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A QUICK BURST OF SNOW

LATE MON NT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUES. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST NORTH

WITH A GOOD 0.25 INCH ACROSS THE BULK OF OUR CWA...WHILE GFS AND

ECMWF MAX IT OUT ALONG NY-PA BORDER. IN ANY CASE...WILL INCREASE

POPS DRASTICALLY FROM 10 TO 60 FROM ABOUT 10Z-18Z TUES AND WE

COULD SEE A SOLID 1-3/2-4 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...LESSER CHC AND

LOWER AMTS E OF LK ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE RACES OFF TO NEW ENG TUES

AFTERNOON AND WE GET INTO A LULL LATER TUES AND MUCH OF TUES NT

BEFORE THE REAL ACTION BEGINS...

MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A MAJOR STORM LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUES TO NEAR CINCI BY EARLY WED. EVENTUALLY

THIS SYSTEM TRANSFERS TO THE COAST...BUT BOTH GFS AND EC DELAY THIS

PROCESS AND KEEP THE "PRIMARY" LOW THE MAIN PLAYER UP INTO EASTERN

OHIO...WITH ITS POTENT JET STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A SLUG OF 0.5 TO 1

INCH QPF UP ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NY FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 18Z WED. EC

HAS BEEN ON THE HEAVIER SIDE WITH A STRIP OVER VERY HEAVY

QPF...1-1.5 INCH...FROM CHI TO DET TO YYZ AND BUF...BUT GFS LOOK

MORE REALISTIC WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAVY WARM ADVECTION SNOW WED

MORNING...THEN SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT AS A DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS

INTO ONTARIO WHILE COASTAL GETS GOING LATER WED AND WED EVE...THEN

SOME WRAPAROUND SWINGS BACK ACROSS OUR AREA WED NT.

THIS IS STILL NOT ETCHED IN STONE AS 12Z GEM KEEP BULK OF SNOW SOUTH

OF OUR AREA...BUT IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. 12Z

GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MAX PRECIP NEAR NY-PA BORDER (AN INCH) BUT A

SOLID 0.5 TO SOUTH SHORE OF LK ONTARIO. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE

WARMER MODEL...BUT EVEN THIS IS A BIT COLDER THAN LAST RUN...WITH

850 MB ZERO ISOTHERM JUST TOUCHING OUR SRN TIER FOR AWHILE WED SO A

LITTLE SLEET COULDNT BE RULED OUT.

ALL OF THIS IS STILL A GOOD 84-96 HOURS OUT...SO CERTAINLY CANNOT

GET TOO SPECIFIC. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR LATE TUES

NT AND WED AND THERE IS AT LEAST AN EVEN CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 6

INCHES OF SNOW AREAWIDE FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER SEASON.-- End Changed Discussion --

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BGM update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

346 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...

DRIER AIR FOR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVE AS A COLD ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS HIGH REMAINS OVER CANADA KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS COLD FOR THE OVERRUNNING SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE MUCH WETTER NOW WITH QPF AROUND HALF AN INCH RIGHT THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH ADVISORY AMOUNTS IF THESE LIQUID AMOUNTS VERIFY. STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR A WATCH. FOR TIMING AND AMOUNTS LEANED TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE EURO. NAM IS FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS. IN ADDITION IT IS ALSO MUCH WARMER. EVEN THE COLDER MODELS MIGHT HAVE SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. WITH THE NAM THIS MIX WOULD MAKE IT INTO THE SRN TIER WHICH DOES NOT LOOK RIGHT WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE START OF THIS EVENT.

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Albany looks like there gaining some confidence

Tuesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 7. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 60%

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THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES MORE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY

TUESDAY...WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR MEASURABLE QPF THROUGH MUCH

OF THE DAY. AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM AROUND 0.15-0.25...AND COUPLED

WITH ABOVE NORMAL SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS MAY RESULT IN SOME MARGINAL

ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5 OR 3-6 INCHES. WILL MENTION THE

POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR MODERATE

SNOW IN THE HWO. QUITE A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER OR JUST

SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES

INDICATE SNOW AS PTYPE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY

SECOND AND STRONGER PART OF THE ONE-TWO WINTER WEATHER PUNCH FOR

NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN

CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL START OFF WITH LIKELY

POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...

THEN LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL

PROFILES SUGGEST MIXED PCPN WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN

PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES

BY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ALL

SNOW ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM...AND WEDNESDAY

NIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A HIGH

LIQUID CONTENT EVENT WITH MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS FORECASTING AN INCH OR MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR THE ENTIRE

FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE

POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT.

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how much snow did you get overnight-today?

parents said they had a few inches in south ottawa.

looks like a wicked band crossed the city a short while ago.

I'd say we got about 2", maybe more. Deffinately more than any weather outlet was predicting. The snow came down pretty steadily between 8am-1:30pm. It looks like a winter wonderland out there, more like Narnia than Ottawa, lol. It looks like we'll surpass 50cm for the month. As for the mean temperature, hopefully Monday's forecasted cold high in the teens will hold it in the minus double digets celcius.

Things are deffinately looking up for us aren't they? Imagine if we got hit by the storm this week, and next weekend? February 1993 redux! Interestingly, our snowpack is almost equal to what it was at the end of January 1993.

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I'm ALWAYS hesitant of going big snows south of I-90 (at least) with the SWFE's.....in the last decade, I remember quite a few events that just seemed to indicate solid snows for Upstate region, only to go pretty quickly to IP....even at pretty low boundary temps. And I can't recall even one storm of this nature pumping 16" in the CNY area, via this type setup......I VERY leary, to say the least.....the upshot is that we have a pretty decent HP to the NE, and the PV looks to hold it in JUST long enough for us, ATT....but again, leariness prevails....and even moreso, with the very subtle trends in the models.

The consensus storm track is highly atypical, and subject to large variances in sensible wx with small shifts in track. Storms approaching as such very often tend to cut up the SLRV, or (JUST a bit further south), redevelop off the LI bight, snuffing out the vertical forcings back to the west rather quickly.

Things should become quite a bit more clearer (hopefull) once the interaction between the two s/w's resolves itself, and the system shows it's ejection heading and potential intensity....along with any potential subtleties in the configuration of the PV.....

I may have to take down the "NON-STORM" announcement!!! .......<fingers crossed>..... ;):snowman:

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