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Feb 1-2 Upstate NY / North Country Major Winter Storm


CNYWxGuy

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I agree but no storm this yr has had this much model agreement.. Not 1..So confidence is a little higher then usual..

Its nice to see some consensus especially when its gives all of us a decent snowstorm. We all need a nice old fashion SWFE to freshen up the snowpack. Lets see if the EC holds it previous solution.

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It sounds like the ecm is a torch for the coast, temps in the mid 40s for nyc..Im not really sure what it shows here ...

The track cuts like right across the heart of PA and right over top of AVP. Definately would be considerable mixing South of I-90, but it sounds like QPF is still in the .8+ range for much of Upstate. FWIW, the 0z NOGAPS is almost a spitting image of the 0z ECM in terms of track, although temp profiles look a little colder.

The 0z GEFS members have come out, and I couldn't really find fault with any one member. It was like a genuine buffet... and here was my favorite showing .75-1.00 QPF over a 6-hour span...

post-538-0-95340400-1296284452.gif

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WOW thanks logan :thumbsup: 1st time i have seen KUCA used lol

Yeah, I specifically asked for a bunch of Upstate local's and I included UCA in the list just for you lol

The euro usually has a warm bias, i think kbgm is gonna do better then that lol

Yeah, the ECM / CMC temp profiles aren't the greatest to use of the models, and the ECM is also the furthest N / W of the models from what I have noticed looking over the current guidance.

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KALB

THAT AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT QUICKLY MAXIMIZES DURING

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. AGAIN...THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS

IDEA WITH "DRIER" CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW

DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS ITS NORTHEAST TRACK

TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE

THICKNESS AND PLUMES...ONSET OF PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW. IF THE

INTERNATIONAL MODELS ARE CORRECT...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT MAKE IT AS FAR

NORTH TOWARD I90 ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX. IN FACT...A FEW

OF THOSE MEMBERS SEEN IN THE GEFS PLUMES ALSO SUGGEST THIS

POTENTIAL. SO...WE WILL INTRODUCE THIS R/S MIX AT THIS TIME FOR THE

SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. QPF/S FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE RATHER

HIGH. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 285K SURFACE SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...WE

ADVECT 4 TO 6 G/KG FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A

SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT FOR THE REGION. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS

AFD...WE ARE REMINDED OF MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS FAR OUT AS A COUPLE

OF THOSE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST LITTLE QPF. UNTIL THIS STORM OVER

THE PACIFIC BECOMES SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK...WE WILL CONTINUE

WITH THE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND MENTIONS WITHIN THE HWO.

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Buffalo and Binghamton... party0012.gif

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

315 AM EST SAT JAN 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM NEAR CHICAGO THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TO PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE SHIELD OF STEADY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE PROCESS WHILE LAKE SNOWS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING TO A CLOSER SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH FROM THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE MAIN CENTER OF THE LOW A LITTLE FASTER THAN GFS...BUT THE END RESULT IS THE SAME WITH A BROAD COVERAGE OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF BOTH EC AND GFS ARE RIGHT...THIS WILL BE QUITE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HIKE THE POPS TO MID LIKELY RANGE FOR WESTERN NY...TRENDING DOWN TO LOWER LIKELY TO UPPER CHANCE FOR JEFF/LEWIS COUNTIES AND THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WE CAN EXPECT THESE POPS TO BE HIGHER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

************************************************************************

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

426 AM EST SAT JAN 29 2011

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LONG TERM SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PD AS MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON WINTER STORM FOR THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. VERY WELL- DEFINED H5 LOW IS MAKING HEADWAY TWD THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA COAST EARLY THIS MRNG. BY EARLY WEEK, THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIVE INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WITH A SFC LOW DVLPNG ACRS TX EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PD. THO DETAILS DIFFER FM MODEL TO MODEL, IT APPEARS AS THO 1050MB HIGH WL BUILD INTO THE WRN U.S. MID-WEEK WITH SFC LOW TRACKING FM THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY TUE NGT INTO WED. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT AMONG 00Z GFS/EC AND GEFS. AFT 12Z WED, MODELS TRANSFER ENERGY TO THE COAST FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT QPF BEING INDICATED FOR CWA.

UNCERTAINTY RMNS IN HOW QUICKLY ENERGY TRANSFERS AND WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THERMAL PROFILES, ESPECIALLY OVR SRN AND ERN SXNS. 00Z EC IS MUCH WARMER ALOFT THAN GFS, WITH 0C H8 LINE UP INTO NEPA PER GFS WHILE EC BRINGS IT WELL INTO SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

THO P-TYPE IS CERTAINLY IN QUESTION, DYNAMICS LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT AS COUPLED H3 JET BCMS ALIGNED OVR CWA AS ADVERTISED BY MED RANGE GUIDANCE. OVERALL QPF VALUES FOR THIS SYSTEM AVERAGING BTWN 0.75-1.00 INCHES, SLIGHTLY HEAVIER FM GFS.

WL CONTINUE TO REFINE FCST IN COMING DAYS. IT RMNS UNCLEAR WHAT ROLE SFC HIGH OVR NEW ENGLAND WL PLAY IN POSSIBLY KEEPING CLD AIR TRAPPED NR SFC. AS IT STANDS NOW, SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FOR CNTRL NY / NEPA AND HV HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL IN HWO ALONG WITH INCRSG POPS TO LKLY FOR THIS PD.

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Gfs seems to keep getting wetter, the last 4 runs have increased qpf..Now its inline with the ecm and jma with anywhere between 1-1.5" of precip..

I think it is a combination of slightly wetter and also slightly further north. This 6z solution looks somewhat similar to the 0z NOGAPS / ECM solution of taking a LP across PA although not as far north and appears to keep the S Tier mainly snow... barely. 6z DGEX is also further north and probably would present mixing issues S of I-90. But... too early to worry about precip-type.

The 6z DGEX also has another surprise toward the end of run between 174-192, although I tend to think this is just the DGEX being the DGEX model...

post-538-0-99876400-1296299063.gif

post-538-0-10993200-1296299093.gif

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