CNYWxGuy Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z GFS 24-Hour QPF is very consistent with the previous 18z run. Bulk of Upstate would be looking at warning-level snows verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z GFS 24-Hour QPF is very consistent with the previous 18z run. Bulk of Upstate would be looking at warning-level snows verbatim... Yea looks good, i just miss out on .5-.75 in a 6hr period twice lol Once to the south and once to the east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 as cold as it can get lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 as cold as it can get lol :lmao: Man, if we get this storm to crank up here and then we get cold like this it would be the February of my dreams. February 1993 redux! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ggem looks like a pretty nice hit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ggem looks like a pretty nice hit.. unless I'm reading it wrong though, it seems to just clip me. Hopefully we get it to move north just a tiny bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 cmc http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I agree but no storm this yr has had this much model agreement.. Not 1..So confidence is a little higher then usual.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 cmc http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Based on E-wall, looks like all of Upstate gets atleast a moderate size snowfall, with the biggest winners being W NY. Looks like around 1.25-1.5 QPF out that way with a bit less for everyone else. The colored maps should provide a better explanation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 looks like a prolonged snowfall, about 3/4-1.5 for the area http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I agree but no storm this yr has had this much model agreement.. Not 1..So confidence is a little higher then usual.. Its nice to see some consensus especially when its gives all of us a decent snowstorm. We all need a nice old fashion SWFE to freshen up the snowpack. Lets see if the EC holds it previous solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 uk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 00z GFS ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 uk UKMET looks like it would be warmer definitely more wound up and west. actually its just a little faster with the system than the GFS/CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It sounds like the ecm is a torch for the coast, temps in the mid 40s for nyc..Im not really sure what it shows here ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 It sounds like the ecm is a torch for the coast, temps in the mid 40s for nyc..Im not really sure what it shows here ... The track cuts like right across the heart of PA and right over top of AVP. Definately would be considerable mixing South of I-90, but it sounds like QPF is still in the .8+ range for much of Upstate. FWIW, the 0z NOGAPS is almost a spitting image of the 0z ECM in terms of track, although temp profiles look a little colder. The 0z GEFS members have come out, and I couldn't really find fault with any one member. It was like a genuine buffet... and here was my favorite showing .75-1.00 QPF over a 6-hour span... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yea i just seen the nogaps, looks good..I would think a track that goes over NE PA and SE NY would be good for this area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Per a friend with MOS info on Euro... Buffalo / Rochester / Syracuse / Watertown / Utica... 1.00-1.30 QPF / All Snow Binghamton... .80-.90 QPF / .2-.3 as Snow Albany... 1.40 QPF / .85-.95 as Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Per a friend with MOS info on Euro... Buffalo / Rochester / Syracuse / Watertown / Utica... 1.00-1.30 QPF / All Snow Binghamton... .80-.90 QPF / .2-.3 as Snow Albany... 1.40 QPF / .85-.95 as Snow WOW thanks logan 1st time i have seen KUCA used lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The euro usually has a warm bias, i think kbgm is gonna do better then that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 WOW thanks logan 1st time i have seen KUCA used lol Yeah, I specifically asked for a bunch of Upstate local's and I included UCA in the list just for you lol The euro usually has a warm bias, i think kbgm is gonna do better then that lol Yeah, the ECM / CMC temp profiles aren't the greatest to use of the models, and the ECM is also the furthest N / W of the models from what I have noticed looking over the current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 KALB THAT AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT QUICKLY MAXIMIZES DURINGTUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. AGAIN...THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THIS IDEA WITH "DRIER" CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS ITS NORTHEAST TRACK TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THE THICKNESS AND PLUMES...ONSET OF PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW. IF THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS ARE CORRECT...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH TOWARD I90 ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX. IN FACT...A FEW OF THOSE MEMBERS SEEN IN THE GEFS PLUMES ALSO SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL. SO...WE WILL INTRODUCE THIS R/S MIX AT THIS TIME FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. QPF/S FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE RATHER HIGH. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE 285K SURFACE SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...WE ADVECT 4 TO 6 G/KG FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT FOR THE REGION. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD...WE ARE REMINDED OF MODEL PERFORMANCE THIS FAR OUT AS A COUPLE OF THOSE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST LITTLE QPF. UNTIL THIS STORM OVER THE PACIFIC BECOMES SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND MENTIONS WITHIN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Buffalo and Binghamton... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 315 AM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A POTENT STORM SYSTEM NEAR CHICAGO THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TO PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE SHIELD OF STEADY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE PROCESS WHILE LAKE SNOWS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING TO A CLOSER SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH FROM THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE MAIN CENTER OF THE LOW A LITTLE FASTER THAN GFS...BUT THE END RESULT IS THE SAME WITH A BROAD COVERAGE OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF BOTH EC AND GFS ARE RIGHT...THIS WILL BE QUITE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL HIKE THE POPS TO MID LIKELY RANGE FOR WESTERN NY...TRENDING DOWN TO LOWER LIKELY TO UPPER CHANCE FOR JEFF/LEWIS COUNTIES AND THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WE CAN EXPECT THESE POPS TO BE HIGHER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. ************************************************************************ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 426 AM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LONG TERM SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PD AS MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON WINTER STORM FOR THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. VERY WELL- DEFINED H5 LOW IS MAKING HEADWAY TWD THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA COAST EARLY THIS MRNG. BY EARLY WEEK, THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIVE INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WITH A SFC LOW DVLPNG ACRS TX EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PD. THO DETAILS DIFFER FM MODEL TO MODEL, IT APPEARS AS THO 1050MB HIGH WL BUILD INTO THE WRN U.S. MID-WEEK WITH SFC LOW TRACKING FM THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY TUE NGT INTO WED. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT AMONG 00Z GFS/EC AND GEFS. AFT 12Z WED, MODELS TRANSFER ENERGY TO THE COAST FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT QPF BEING INDICATED FOR CWA. UNCERTAINTY RMNS IN HOW QUICKLY ENERGY TRANSFERS AND WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THERMAL PROFILES, ESPECIALLY OVR SRN AND ERN SXNS. 00Z EC IS MUCH WARMER ALOFT THAN GFS, WITH 0C H8 LINE UP INTO NEPA PER GFS WHILE EC BRINGS IT WELL INTO SUSQUEHANNA REGION. THO P-TYPE IS CERTAINLY IN QUESTION, DYNAMICS LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT AS COUPLED H3 JET BCMS ALIGNED OVR CWA AS ADVERTISED BY MED RANGE GUIDANCE. OVERALL QPF VALUES FOR THIS SYSTEM AVERAGING BTWN 0.75-1.00 INCHES, SLIGHTLY HEAVIER FM GFS. WL CONTINUE TO REFINE FCST IN COMING DAYS. IT RMNS UNCLEAR WHAT ROLE SFC HIGH OVR NEW ENGLAND WL PLAY IN POSSIBLY KEEPING CLD AIR TRAPPED NR SFC. AS IT STANDS NOW, SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FOR CNTRL NY / NEPA AND HV HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL IN HWO ALONG WITH INCRSG POPS TO LKLY FOR THIS PD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think im in love with the 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 For the 1st time in many runs, the GFS does not form a secondary LP, and instead tracks a primary LP across southern PA off the northern NJ coast. However, the outcome remains the same with Upstate NY in the cross-hairs of a heavy snow event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Gfs seems to keep getting wetter, the last 4 runs have increased qpf..Now its inline with the ecm and jma with anywhere between 1-1.5" of precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Gfs seems to keep getting wetter, the last 4 runs have increased qpf..Now its inline with the ecm and jma with anywhere between 1-1.5" of precip.. I think it is a combination of slightly wetter and also slightly further north. This 6z solution looks somewhat similar to the 0z NOGAPS / ECM solution of taking a LP across PA although not as far north and appears to keep the S Tier mainly snow... barely. 6z DGEX is also further north and probably would present mixing issues S of I-90. But... too early to worry about precip-type. The 6z DGEX also has another surprise toward the end of run between 174-192, although I tend to think this is just the DGEX being the DGEX model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 On a side note the 6z gfs brings lows on thur night down to -27 for kuca..Last time it showed temps that cold i hit -20.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Pretty incredible how Toronto could get an epic storm while Ottawa and Montreal completely miss out. Almost like early February 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GOOD LORD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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