Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I am convinced that any LP's coming in from the E. TX, LA area, moving NNE ward, occlude faster than any models ever anticipate, which allows for the midlevel baroclinicity to scream NE'ward. The CAD signature was actually a detriment to (and is very often the case) channeling the tongue of WAA to the west, punching well northward into the OV and eastern GL's. For whatever reason(s) the models consistently underestimate many parameters in these similar synoptic setups that lead to such a horrible, horrible error for our region. The under modeled convection to the south didn't help matters either, wrt the qpf up this way...... Bad day for mets for many parts of the OV and Upstate regions. And a potential for a follow up "bust" this weekend....maybe in reverse!! LOL! thanks for the learning moment how much have you gotten in total? i think this widespread 1-2.5 foot amounts being tossed around by other mets and NWS offices was a big byproduct of the FEMA hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 WOW, I pretty much woke up laughing to see a whopping 4" in Northern ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Ice pellets mixing in ?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I am convinced that any LP's coming in from the E. TX, LA area, moving NNE ward, occlude faster than any models ever anticipate, which allows for the midlevel baroclinicity to scream NE'ward. The CAD signature was actually a detriment to (and is very often the case) channeling the tongue of WAA to the west, punching well northward into the OV and eastern GL's. For whatever reason(s) the models consistently underestimate many parameters in these similar synoptic setups that lead to such a horrible, horrible error for our region. The under modeled convection to the south didn't help matters either, wrt the qpf up this way...... Bad day for mets for many parts of the OV and Upstate regions. And a potential for a follow up "bust" this weekend....maybe in reverse!! LOL! We've been talking about SAT event for a while now...next Tuesday (Mon Night) looks potent too. I was also looking at the gridded data from Earl barker's Page and in WINGRIDDS and again the winds above 850 were stacked SW with speed increasing in height..also the RH forcasts were juiced 850 down by the time you got to H7 they were below 70 percent bh H5 the RH was in the 30s.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Aaah finally....lovely lovely snow I'll take what we get....given that we here were on the fence until recently, I am just grateful it is happening! Road and sidewalk plows are out on full force! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Snow grains...heavy snow grains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 wdf it's raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Back to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Snow grains...heavy snow grains you are probably in the lull snow and wind band incoming that dryslot is menacing though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 wdf it's raining your obs are 20F......FRZRA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I went to sleep--- was all ready to stay up and watch the snow until 6 am when it mixed. Looks like some snow did mix it, but its 2-3 inches of sleet and snow mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Aaah finally....lovely lovely snow I'll take what we get....given that we here were on the fence until recently, I am just grateful it is happening! Road and sidewalk plows are out on full force! defintely endorse this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 if the dryslot makes it all the way up here, it will be an epic fail by the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 steady snow being blown about by the wind here. Incredible that we might get more than Toronto given what people were thinking a couple of days go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 your obs are 20F......FRZRA? yeh it' s freezing on contact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 steady snow being blown about by the wind here. Incredible that we might get more than Toronto given what people were thinking a couple of days go! i went to bed last night and it was just getting started there....woke up early this morning and they were already dryslotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 yeh it' s freezing on contact well thats not too bad....i was worried you had gone above freezing lol. sounds like you got the kitchen sink treatment. better than high cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Bigger flakes now. Really strong winds. Almost looks a bit like December 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 well thats not too bad....i was worried you had gone above freezing lol. sounds like you got the kitchen sink treatment. better than high cirrus. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Bigger flakes now. Really strong winds. Almost looks a bit like December 2007 in some ways it does....recall how cold it was in the leadup to that storm as well. got to love when WAA mixes with this kind of deep cold if you look at radar, the intensity of snow and wind in patches is definitely as strong as dec 07....difference being that dec 07 had the epic superband of sustained intensity for 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 hope you guys get hammered up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 As of 9pm last night in Queensbury - approx. .5 (I didn't measure, they said 3, I think that's optimistic) From 9pm last night to 8 am this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 in some ways it does....recall how cold it was in the leadup to that storm as well. got to love when WAA mixes with this kind of deep cold if you look at radar, the intensity of snow and wind in patches is definitely as strong as dec 07....difference being that dec 07 had the epic superband of sustained intensity for 5 hours. well, hopefully we get snow like this for at least a couple of hours more. Still can't believe we're getting more than Toronto. Schools closed across Toronto, as is York University. Better safe than sorry I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 hope you guys get hammered up there thanks. Really sorry to hear about your bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 well, hopefully we get snow like this for at least a couple of hours more. Still can't believe we're getting more than Toronto. Schools closed across Toronto, as is York University. Better safe than sorry I guess. it should snow quite well until around noon and then lighten up but as long as we dont get slotted, it should keep snowing. i dont even know, how much did they get in toronto? gotta check on Canucks reports when i get a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 RUC for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 RUC for the win! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 it should snow quite well until around noon and then lighten up but as long as we dont get slotted, it should keep snowing. i dont even know, how much did they get in toronto? gotta check on Canucks reports when i get a moment. Who knows, maybe it'll be like February 13th, 1993 and it'll just keep snowing. Interestingly, i lived in Toronto for that storm and we got only 12 cm (5") while Ottawa got 37cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 it should snow quite well until around noon and then lighten up but as long as we dont get slotted, it should keep snowing. i dont even know, how much did they get in toronto? gotta check on Canucks reports when i get a moment. Did the blizzard warnings verify for London? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 thanks. Really sorry to hear about your bust. we managed to get about 7" somehow which is better than nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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