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Feb 1-2 Upstate NY / North Country Major Winter Storm


CNYWxGuy

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PARTS OF THE

SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SEEING MULTIPLE INCHES

PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING.

ACTUALLY..PARTS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY

AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS SHOULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY

THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...PERHAPS IN THE 5 TO 12

INCH RANGE.

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16* 4" of snow no sleet so far but the back edge is upon us.

The cars were 5 deep at the gas stations the other day and the store shelves looked like they had been looted.

When wiil the next round of super hype begin?

The media has now managed to comsume and pursude the weather part of our lives what is next?

633611424113169671-EpicFail.jpg633611424113169671-EpicFail.jpg

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most closed due to pre-event hype...we don't normally close down for 6" of snow that is over by the time buses are rolling.

This is the worst bust by the media, many meteorologists (practically all) and the models in several decades for the CNY area....total embarrassment, no other way to put it. This lesson should be pounded home once and for all, pertaining to a storm track such as this....IGNORE THE MODELS for our area....

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Major pinging going on right now..It only snowed heavy for about 4 hrs but we prob recieved 4-6" during that time frame..Very intense snowfall at times,maybe more then 2" a hr..What killed me was the flakes size, it got better for 20 min and then that was that lol Total snowfall for the 1st event was 4"..

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This is the worst bust by the media, many meteorologists (practically all) and the models in several decades for the CNY area....total embarrassment, no other way to put it. This lesson should be pounded home once and for all, pertaining to a storm track such as this....IGNORE THE MODELS for our area....

SW flow above 850 fuked us..and the 1-2 inchQPF forecast. EC had it right (QP)...we had spirited debate here in the offcie i wanted to low end snowfall chief was ramped up for a lot ofsnow...

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Nice underperforming event around here. Overall I'm not nearly as disappointed as I would have been earlier in the season. Our snowpack is better right now than it has been for the past 3 years, and the forecast for the future looks snowy and cold. The models are already in pretty good agreement about events here on 2/5 and 2/8. We're just having a hard time getting a major snowfall....it seems like 4-8" is our range for each event.

Currently: 14.1F, moderate sleet, haven't measured accumulation yet but I'd guess 4-6" new.

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When do you expect the snow to start in Ottawa?

It's February 12-13,1993 again. I'm telling you man, you've got to believe.

i went to bed early. i wanted to wake up early.....its pretty bad out there.

the occlusion has occcurred and the storm is soooo wrapped up over the midwest......its moving quickly and im concerned we get dryslotted which would be just unbelievable considering where we sat a few days ago with a potential miss...

if we dont get dryslotted

i agree with Don S

6-10 for ottawa and montreal

8-12 south of the cities towards the border

3-6 north of the cities including the upper ottawa valley

with the winds, it will be difficult to measure.

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SW flow above 850 fuked us..and the 1-2 inchQPF forecast. EC had it right (QP)...we had spirited debate here in the offcie i wanted to low end snowfall chief was ramped up for a lot ofsnow...

I am convinced that any LP's coming in from the E. TX, LA area, moving NNE ward, occlude faster than any models ever anticipate, which allows for the midlevel baroclinicity to scream NE'ward. The CAD signature was actually a detriment to (and is very often the case) channeling the tongue of WAA to the west, punching well northward into the OV and eastern GL's. For whatever reason(s) the models consistently underestimate many parameters in these similar synoptic setups that lead to such a horrible, horrible error for our region.

The under modeled convection to the south didn't help matters either, wrt the qpf up this way......

Bad day for mets for many parts of the OV and Upstate regions.

And a potential for a follow up "bust" this weekend....maybe in reverse!! LOL!

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