wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just updated im pretty sure this will not happen lol Overnight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. East wind between 7 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow before noon, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. East wind between 10 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 8. Wind chill values as low as -4. Calm wind becoming west between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 lowest pressure fall in PITTsurgh. Much further south than expected. this will hopefully allow alot of Nys to stay snow. especially north of the thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You mean just north? 850 holding just south, sleet just north of the border! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 rochester getting heavy snow now!! rochesterdave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yea it looks like the storm is moving east, this might save us 4 the most part..Lets hope..Nothing but snow here so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 some 1 on another forum from the town of schoharie is reporting sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 some 1 on another forum from the town of schoharie is reporting sleet.. Thats definitely not good... if thats true i'll be flipping over soon as well. If logan11 or gorizer flips over then i'm headed to bed. Currently light snow with weak echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Been light snow with small dendrites since about 12am.. flake size and intensity picking up over the last 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 some 1 on another forum from the town of schoharie is reporting sleet.. Well, that's only 10 miles away from me... still light snow here, but I think I'll call it a night before the pinging begins. I don't want to give the little bastards the satisfaction of keeping me awake. Good luck all. And enjoy your snow up in Ottawa... you guys certainly deserve some snow love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Snow is pure here ...no sleet. 11F. Thats definitely not good... if thats true i'll be flipping over soon as well. If logan11 or gorizer flips over then i'm headed to bed. Currently light snow with weak echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just remember this 5"-9" = about 10"-18" of the fake effect snow. SN- in Oswego attm. Pretty windy also. Snow has a rice-like consistency walking in it. Looks like Bustolysis in progress? 5-9" isn't exactly much to get excited about in the end. Who'da thought today's round 1 accumulation of 2" would be a significant part of the storm around SYR? We get that by accident from the lake. Lake Ontario is the Master - Bring the Fake Effect! Another "rule" that bothered me about this system...which is that almost invariably, if Chicago is getting bombed we're on the warm side of the storm and best we'll get is some WAA out in front w/ mixing or changeover likely. Granted, it can be intense for short periods but not Blockbuster totals and limited duration. Which is what we're going to end up with, a few hrs of snow and then mix then dryslot. Yawn. As far as the weekend - people have to be kidding about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Snow is pure here ...no sleet. 11F. BGM just went back to snow... good sign the dynamics are kicking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Wouldn't expect sleet in Schoharie...but not surprising about BGM. The models have had them near and or a little over the 0C line for the last several runs. Once again I wish we had an asos in Oneonta for events like this.... Edit: we do have Huff down there if he is awake... BGM just went back to snow... good sign the dynamics are kicking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Been pure Sleet here in Buffalo last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Coming down very hard , very cold..windy..just nasty...Flakes are much better now..Hope this continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Coming down very hard , very cold..windy..just nasty...Flakes are much better now..Hope this continues The flake size is horrible here very fine like pixie dust even under decent echoes. ratios have to be around 10:1 or lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I can't sleep with the constant Bink Bink Bink Bink of sleet the last 3 hours! Ahh!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 SLeet at BGM ... some snow mixing but a lot of ping ping city level, ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February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http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 heavy snow for the last 3 hours at rochester. 3.5" on my stoop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Really coming down right now, adding up pretty quick even tho the flakes have become dry again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Moderate snow and 10.8F here. It looks like about 2.5" more since round #2 began. That would bring the event total to almost 8 inches. It is not great dendrite snow, but seems ok......not appearing close to any change over to sleet. The 6Z NAM continues the slow qpf cut back so (going by that) 8" would be about the max we could get from this second round. Well i'm only up because I'm at work. Moderate snow in Oswego area, moderate flake size. Maybe 1"/hr rate attm. Probably 2 or 3" down now but hard to tell as what fell earlier blew around so much right on the lakeshore and there's already a considerable snowcover. Dryslot should be here by mid morning. We'll probably scrounge 6" or so out of this by the looks of things. Would be nice to see some fake snow on the tail end, doesn't sound all that promising but OTOH this was supposed to be a significant storm up until a few hours ago. I haven't had a chance to look at the LES prospects due to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 well the dreaded mix line reached buffalo,just went out and measured additional 4 inches on top of the 2 inches since 12am,storm total IMBY so far 6 inches,heavy heavy sleet outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL SEVERELY HAMPER TRAVEL THIS MORNING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE NORTHEAST CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...THROUGH 6 AM. SNOWFALL RATES WILL APPROACH AND EVENTUALLY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR...WITH RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY BY 6 AM. THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE SEVERELY IMPACTED...WITH VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 DRY SLOT!!! Can this fink of a storm get any worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 the snow is like concrete when you walk on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You're just not used to real snow. the snow is like concrete when you walk on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You're just not used to real snow. i wouldn't be surprised if that 4 inch was sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I think the ruc is finally catching on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.THE 08Z OBSERVATIONS AND THE ONE HOUR SNOW DEPTH ALGORITHM SHOW THAT MIXED PCPN HAS ALREADY REACHED THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...IMPLYING THAT THE WARMER AIR ALOFT HAS SURGED EVEN FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THE 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE PLOT SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACH WESTERN NEW YORK BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PATH OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND STEADIER SNOW MAINLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WORKING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...THE SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE DECIDED TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL STAY ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE MAIN STORM CENTER. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE UP THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...BUT WILL LOWER TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL GENERATE MORE SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED. BECAUSE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS OUR CWA...THE WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING DIRECTION AND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THIS SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE IMPACT FROM BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. wow talk about fking bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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