wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just measured a solid inch outside with the snow coming down at pretty good clip,storm total now up to 2 inches IMBY couldn't fell asleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Bust bust bust bust bust can you say bust? Lol I don't even care. Call me a poor sport or spoiled or whatever. This winter has been ridiculous. Don't even go down the road of I should be happy with 4-8" or whatever is forecasted now, I shouldn't, and I'm obviously not LOL. That truly is nothing, especially when you get 40" of LES in 4 days. It will have to suffice though. Was going to stay up and watch this baby, but going to catch up on some sleep now. Hope I wake up with 5" of ICE. Yes I'm pretty mad, but I will get over it. Spring is almost here. March Madness : Good luck to everyone else, hope everyone cashes in on a solid foot +. :snowman: dude, I soooo feel yur pain. The models were in cement for 4 days, and screw us in the last 18 hrs. But maybe there is still hope. But everything on the ground suggests sleet. The models still show snow. I don't understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 - then why is there ice in dansville being reported? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yeah I'm at -12.2C near St. paul University St. Pauls? Why hello neighbour haha! I wouldn't pay too much attention to the local media outlets regarding this storm. FWIW, I was just checking the Canadian blog at Accuweather, and Brett Anderson (a meteorologist there whom I really respect) suggested the storm is tracking further north and this could imply higher totals for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Light snow, enough to lightly dust the windshield currently. Thermometer's out but guessing in the low-mid teens. Hopefully the mix down near BGM can hold off a little bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Im not sure how accurate the SPC Mesoscale Analysis is but i see it being used alot..It's usually pretty close to what is going on imo..Updated 1 pretty much looks the same atm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Sbow has started imby, dry flakes again though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Light snow, enough to lightly dust the windshield currently. Thermometer's out but guessing in the low-mid teens. Hopefully the mix down near BGM can hold off a little bit! Yeah, it's a snow / sleet mix here attm. At the very least, I was expecting a period of several hours of all snow before sleet would begin to 'rue' the day, and even that isn't going to happen. The mix / changeover line seems hell-bent on driving deep into C NY, something I didn't think was a realistic possibility over the past day or two. When some of the biggest hits were on the models for this event, LEK made the point about err'ing on the side of caution when it comes to significant snows for the I-90 / S region in SWFE's. O well, lessons learned... hopefully our E / N NY and Canadian brother's reel in some good snows Tonight-Wednesday. We'll survey the damage reports when the dust settles in the morning, but right now it's shaping up to be bag-over-the-head for the I-90 / S region in W / C NY compared to what was on some the models in the T18-48 timeframe. If there is ever a good time to use a hatchet-to-the-head emoticon, its right now... Sidenote, the 0z GFS continues to increase the potential with the weekend event. Maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'd estimate 1-2" so far but very hard to tell because its just drifting all over the place. Coming down at a decent clip here in Eggertsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 St. Pauls? Why hello neighbour haha! I wouldn't pay too much attention to the local media outlets regarding this storm. FWIW, I was just checking the Canadian blog at Accuweather, and Brett Anderson (a meteorologist there whom I really respect) suggested the storm is tracking further north and this could imply higher totals for us. No kidding, they have been an absolute joke for this storm. Thank God for the internet! JJ on Ottawa CTV saying 15cm, but I watched the Montreal CTV and the weather lady there is calling for 20-30cm in both Ottawa and Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'd estimate 1-2" so far but very hard to tell because its just drifting all over the place. Coming down at a decent clip here in Eggertsville. Same here, solid uptick in the last 30 minutes with better flake size. Pretty sweet outside right now with the moderate snow and gusty NE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Absolutely incredile conditions in Chicago the past several hours. Genuine blizzard... http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMDW.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Wow, started here as snow/sleet and freezing rain. This is BADDD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Same here, solid uptick in the last 30 minutes with better flake size. Pretty sweet outside right now with the moderate snow and gusty NE winds. For sure bro , just keep an eye on that MONSTER dry slot already over the W. side of lake Erie, aalthough it seems to be filling in a bit... http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 right now, id defintiely bump up ottawa and montreal to 5-9 it could be higher in a few hours lol snow is defintely going to come in earlier by several hours the issue will be dryslot....its actually could get quite close to us.....but if we dont, we could end up with a great storm. the clincher for me was watching the MW and then checking our thermometers.....we are cold...and the h7 track, plus the storm is just bulling the PV out of the way which is epic really.....no analogs for this one. this kind of cold + WAA = + no dryslot hopefully = When do you expect the snow to start in Ottawa? It's February 12-13,1993 again. I'm telling you man, you've got to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Wow, started here as snow/sleet and freezing rain. This is BADDD... Oh man - you're in Oneonta and you're mixing with sleet and freezing rain already??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Also watch the sleet/snow line, on this radar which seems to be almost perfectly accurate (kudos to intellicast), because the line is steadily creeping northward... The only saving grace to keep us from going over to sleet/staying at sleet for too long , is once the sleet were to arrive the heaviest precip will be falling and may cause just enough dynamic cooling to keep the predominant precip type snow for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Really? I'm not sure anyone is safe. I think high bust potential all the way around. What is your temp? Could be pretty nasty if the ice persists. Wow, started here as snow/sleet and freezing rain. This is BADDD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 i'm starting to believe some of the colder models as the precip type radar is holding just south of the NY border. Could we have a miracle here? plus, the Low pressure is def moving east now, and the 500 never went as far west as the ruc said. I'm hopefull right now. But I feel Bad that Scott Hetsko thru in the towel at the last minute. lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 We have our first flakes flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 i'm starting to believe some of the colder models as the precip type radar is holding just south of the NY border. Could we have a miracle here? plus, the Low pressure is def moving east now, and the 500 never went as far west as the ruc said. I'm hopefull right now. But I feel Bad that Scott Hetsko thru in the towel at the last minute. lets see what happens. You mean just north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Really? I'm not sure anyone is safe. I think high bust potential all the way around. What is your temp? Could be pretty nasty if the ice persists. Temp is 18--- and its all sleet and freezing rain. Instant glaze on all cars. I imagine once the intensity pics up, its more sleet-- but kiss my 12 inches goodbye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Definitely a good start here in wny,so far 2 inches since 10pm with snow coming down at a pretty good clip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Light snow and 14.6 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Temp is 18--- and its all sleet and freezing rain. Instant glaze on all cars. I imagine once the intensity pics up, its more sleet-- but kiss my 12 inches goodbye the nam actually has you cooling in the mid levels for a bit so who knows it may flip back to snow when the good lift arrives and the column cools . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 the nam actually has you cooling in the mid levels for a bit so who knows it may flip back to snow when the good lift arrives and the column cools . I hope so-- I was already to pull an all nighter--not staying up for an ice storm. That's a check in event-- not lose sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Snow/wind/flake size have picked up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Welp, it's been real guys. Even though this won't play out the way many of us thought it would, it was certainly an interesting system to track the past few days. I think it definately serves as a good learning experience nonetheless, for Met's and non-mets alike. It's a shame it had to end like this... BGM... NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1225 AM EST...QUICK UPDATE TO LWR SNOW AMNTS FURTHER. MOSTLY SLEET MIXING WITH SOME SNOW NOW OCCURRING AT KBGM, WITH FZRA AND SLEET BEING REPORTED ACRS THE TWIN TIERS AND INTO NEPA. ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW FELL BTWN 00Z-05Z AT THE AIRPORT WHICH DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR FURTHER ACCUMS THIS MRNG. THINK THAT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WL BE SLIM TO NONE THE REST OF THE EVENT AND HV LOWERED TO JUST AN INCH OR TWO ACRS THE SRN TIER (WHICH MAY BE TOO GENEROUS). DRY SLOT HAS MADE IT TO ERN OH AND APPEARS AS THO PCPN WL BE COMING TO AN END BFR NOON TDA SO WL REVISIT HEADLINES LATER THIS MRNG. STILL APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT ICING WL OCCUR OVR NEPA WHILE SOME SNOW WL ACCUMULATE OVR THE FAR NORTH. EXPECT SLEET TO MIX IN EVEN ACRS THE FAR NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 2-4 HRS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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