snowgeek Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Thanks! You're our Euro guy. Getting cautiously more optimistic. There are still a lot of GFS Ensemble members that our too suppressed for my liking. I guess we'll know more Sunday morning after the sw makes landfall in California. BTW, I wonder where Andy is. Haven't heard from him in a while. He's probably super busy. euro is the furthest north its still predominantly snow with mixing along the southern tier roughly precip is very uniform and all of NYS gets between 1.00-1.50 except for the the area north of ART along the international boder which is 0.75-1.00, including MSS. highest amounts in western new york ROC BUF, and also down along the WNE/NYS border regions ottawa and montreal are about 0.5-0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z Canadian in color... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z ECM good bit west, safe to say we are still a ways away from any sort of consensus amongst the global models. That said, based on what I've been able to decipher from the early / inferior graphics, the 12z CMC / UKmet tend to resemble a GFS-like solution... Reminds me of Jan 28, 2009 (2 years ago today). Almost turned into a disaster as it mixed in the morning, but changed back with 13" of snow falling here and 16" in Jamestown (last synoptic system of note here). I'm not sure I want to try my luck with the 0C so close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 They have not updated this since yesterday's 12z model runs. Rest assured this tone will be changing given the recent model trends from 0z / 12z... OOPS, you're right. I saw this at the top AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 109 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 But see that the long term was from yesterday. I was always a skimmer not a reader Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Might as well post 1 of my fav models lol JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 136 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 VALID 12Z MON JAN 31 2011 - 12Z FRI FEB 04 2011 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM SETTING UP NEXT WEEK FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTHEAST... UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS USE A MULTIMODEL BLEND OF 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/GFS ENS MEAN. THE RESULT IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE EARLIER USED SOLUTION. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND A COMPOSITE OF THE RUNS WOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD THE BLENDED SOLUTION OF HPC. NO CHANGES FOR AFTERNOON FINALS. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUESDAY AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGES DEEP INTO THE PLAINS WITH GREATER THAN 20 DEGREE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. THIS WILL BRING STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CO ROCKIES FRONT RANGE WITH MDT/HVY SNOWFALL TO THE SRN ROCKIES SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL ENERGY SHEARS OUT EWD AND A MDT SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN TX BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW MOVES NEWD INTO KY/TN WED AND REFORMS OFF THE MID ATLC CAPES AND RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD OFF NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY. MDT TO HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE INTO NEW ENG. HEAVY SNOW THREAT INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS QPF OUTPUT/ANALOGS AND FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH ICING THREAT ALONG THE CHANGE OVER AND THEN THE DAMMED IN AREA IN THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT. PACIFIC RECON FLIGHTS REQUESTED INTO THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTY AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC. IF A FLIGHT IS AVAILABLE THIS DATA COULD GET INTO THE MODEL SYSTEMS BY THE RUNS OF SUNDAY 00Z/12Z 30 JAN. RAUSCH / ROSENSTEIN http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdepd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 cpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ecm ens mean http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!North%20America!120!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2011012812!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 CNWYX you bring us luck my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Nice run by the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 CNWYX you bring us luck my friend We aim to please. 18z GFS is a big hit for I-90 South... Total 24-Hour QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z gfs looks a little further north, maybe trending close to the euro QPF also went up from .5 (12z)to around .75(18z) imby.. We need that 2ndry to go more N-NNE instead of ENE-NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z DGEX continues to be a modest hit for many... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 KALB BETTER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM INTHE EASTERN U.S. SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TIME WINDOW OF LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE TIMES THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL NORTHEASTERN U.S. IMPACT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT GETS CLOSER. INTERESTING THAT 2 YEARS AGO A BIG STORM WAS BEING ADVERTISED FORTHE TIME PERIOD AROUND GROUND HOG DAY...THAT EVENTUALLY WAS ONLY A MERE "SHADOW" OF WHAT SOME WERE SUGGESTING 4-5 DAYS IN ADVANCE. WITH THOSE LESSONS IN MIND...SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH SUCH A CONSENSUS ON THE SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM...THAT IDENTIFYING THE POTENTIAL OVER A VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA IS O.K....BUT FINER DETAILS OF WHAT IMPACT IF ANY AND WHERE WILL BECOME CLEARER AS THE IMPACT GETS NEARER. SOME SIGNALS IN CURRENT GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT A RELATIVELY PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS RELATED PRECIPITATION COULD PRECEDE THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS AND UPPER DEFORMATION BY 1 OR MORE DAYS. THIS COULD CHANGE AS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT GETS CLOSER...AND ELEMENTS OF THE STORM GET RESOLVED BETTER BY GUIDANCE. WE MAY GET SOMETHING IN OUR FORECAST AREA...OR NOT...BUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD SEE MODERATE OR GREATER SNOW...SLEET AND/OR ICE NEXT WEEK...NEVER ANY GUARANTEES THIS FAR OUT...THOUGH...SO STAY TUNED LIKED THE HPC CONCOCTION OF SPRINKLING RATIOS OF GEFS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF MEAN INTO THE BLENDER. THE MIX SEEMS TO MAKE A GOOD FLAVOR FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE CONSIDERING ALL THE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. SO MOST OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST DURING THE POTENTIAL STORMY PERIOD AND AFTER USES HPC GUIDANCE AS A FOUNDATION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 KALB They have also taken this to the HWO... HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 426 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 about 1.00" QPF WITH 30:1 ratio for BUF? THIS IS HUGE FOR UPSTATE! WRONG PANEL FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 about 1.00" QPF WITH 30:1 ratio for BUF? THIS IS HUGE FOR UPSTATE! WRONG PANEL FTL This is what the cobb output shows for kbuf(18zgfs) http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kbuf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is what the cobb output shows for kbuf(18zgfs) http://www.meteor.ia...=gfsm&site=kbuf yeh good storm for upstate =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If only we could get it to shift a little more NW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the trends on the 12z euro and the latest 18z NCEP is for the energy out west to come out a little less elongated.....as a result we are seeing a shift north as heights amplify moreseo out ahead of the storm. these are positive trends. lets see what the 00z models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the trends on the 12z euro and the latest 18z NCEP is for the energy out west to come out a little less elongated.....as a result we are seeing a shift north as heights amplify moreseo out ahead of the storm. these are positive trends. lets see what the 00z models show. What IF its ots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just for a little fun since nothing is going on atm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just for a little fun since nothing is going on atm.. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What IF its ots? by tomorrows 00z runs, we will know. i think its fairly doubtful this misses those at least S of I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I forget.........what does DT say.......?............WOOF???????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It looks like the 18z dgex was well NW with the primary from earlier runs..Goes into C OH 18z nogaps http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 by tomorrows 00z runs, we will know. i think its fairly doubtful this misses those at least S of I-90. It's looking slightly better though. Maybe Ottawa will get 2-4" white Toronto gets 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Best run of the gfs so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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