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Feb 1-2 Upstate NY / North Country Major Winter Storm


CNYWxGuy

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Ahh..got you.. Well Oneonta is nothing too special....get 15-20 miles up to Cooperstown if you can. That is my favorite village in Upstate NY on the lake there and the Hall of Fame etc. :)

Yeah, I almost moved up--- but I'm already 500 miles from home. Need to get back Thursday. Should have had a couple other options. If I get break 10, its been a decent trip. Knew going in it was about a 15 inch max if everything was perfect. Now, 10 looks reasonable between the two--

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This storm is going to be an 8 hour event for SYR, snow wise....rapidly developing dry slot over N. Indiana is progged to propagate ENE by 13-15z the heaviest precip will be over....SYR and points SW look to get half of the advertised snowfall, IMO....points north and north east will fair much better....and I wouldn't be surprised if IP doesn't become the dominant p-type for a good chunk of the C and S tier of NY....also I think the convection along the front to the south may be robbing some of the moisture feed. Very typicall in these OV events for up this way.

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Yeah it gets the 0C 850 mb line within shouting distance of here also. I'm hoping the main burst intensity-wise will favor snow for the most part and maybe sleet is at the tail end as it lightens. Only time will tell. 13F here now.

The NAM doesn't suck--

Its still a fast mover-- but up here infers a snow sleet mix at the peak, but its not horrible. A tad wetter too..Looks like .75 QPF or so. Maybe 6 more inches??

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Dave longley from wsyr is dropping snow totals to 5-10" in the Syracuse area with sleet and freezing mixed in. Keeps going down hill with snow totals grrrrrr.

I've seen these setups way too many times...no matter what the models show, a strong LP moving ENE from the N. OV is a HUGE bust potential when calling for the accumulations that have been being put out......now with all of this....I truly hope I am wrong......

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I have never posted before and have been a long time member(eastern board). This is turning into a 3 to 6 inch snowfall for Onondaga County with snow quickly changing to sleet and freezing rain, The writing is on the wall. Not our big snowstorm. Hope I am wrong. Here is to many more posts. These almost always transition sooner than expected.

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I have never posted before and have been a long time member(eastern board). This is turning into a 3 to 6 inch snowfall for Onondaga County with snow quickly changing to sleet and freezing rain, The writing is on the wall. Not our big snowstorm. Hope I am wrong. Here is to many more posts. These almost always transition sooner than expected.

You're in a good spot. 12+ tomorrow.

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Ahh..got you.. Well Oneonta is nothing too special....get 15-20 miles up to Cooperstown if you can. That is my favorite village in Upstate NY on the lake there and the Hall of Fame etc. :)

Been there a few times, definately agree. Cooperstown and Skaneateles are both at the top of my list as far as Upstate NY is concerned.

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I have never posted before and have been a long time member(eastern board). This is turning into a 3 to 6 inch snowfall for Onondaga County with snow quickly changing to sleet and freezing rain, The writing is on the wall. Not our big snowstorm. Hope I am wrong. Here is to many more posts. These almost always transition sooner than expected.

Good to see you again phoenixny!

I went with 4-8" before the changeover, but we are in general agreement nonetheless on this. :facepalm:

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I seen this posted on another forum, promet Quincy(american wx)

meso-analysis shows a low near the GA/SC border - also shows up on 00z NAM. greatest pressure falls away from the primary are also seen here. this is the feature to track and see where it shoots out over/off New Jersey
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Ahh..got you.. Well Oneonta is nothing too special....get 15-20 miles up to Cooperstown if you can. That is my favorite village in Upstate NY on the lake there and the Hall of Fame etc. :)

I looked at Cooperstown. DIdn't think it make a huge difference. A tad more elevation-- my friend hooked me up with the room here cheap. Cooperstown was another 150 bucks for a decent hotel.

I've got three kids, every penny matters to me. ( Says as I just eat my last bite of desert with my dinner)

6.5 or bust-- would make for an even 13 2 day total.

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I looked at Cooperstown. DIdn't think it make a huge difference. A tad more elevation-- my friend hooked me up with the room here cheap. Cooperstown was another 150 bucks for a decent hotel.

I've got three kids, every penny matters to me. ( Says as I just eat my last bite of desert with my dinner)

6.5 or bust-- would make for an even 13 2 day total.

:lol:

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Yah I know that retail, fast food, motels etc. strip in Oneonta well. I'm sure there are much better deals than Cooperstown. That area had one dinky mall, a McDonalds, a HoJO's and not much else years ago and route 7 was the only road down to BGM.... Now they built it out with every chain place it seems. It's a good stop off spot when I head to southwest NY to visit relatives.

Also...as far as lodging, Cooperstown doesn't let the chains in...keeps it nice so it doesn't look like every other strip in the US.

.

I looked at Cooperstown. DIdn't think it make a huge difference. A tad more elevation-- my friend hooked me up with the room here cheap. Cooperstown was another 150 bucks for a decent hotel.

I've got three kids, every penny matters to me. ( Says as I just eat my last bite of desert with my dinner)

6.5 or bust-- would make for an even 13 2 day total.

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timing......basically a classic cold storm. not sure if youve been around ottawa for one of those yet. :)

There is quite the temp difference across the Ottawa area right now.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?brand=wxmap&query=45.333302,-75.900002&theprefset=00000171063WS&theprefvalue=IONOTTAW15

I was in the north end of Barrhaven at 19h45 and the car temp thing said -13 c...by the time I got to Fallowfield/Eagelson it was at -18 c (20h00) and then at home in Bridlewood the home thermometer said -17.6 c....the 20h00 reading from CYOW was something like -13 c...typically CYOW often reads at or below my home set.....although now @ 21h50, the home set is reading -16.4 c. I assume clouds are moving in.

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I dunno how much sleet will ever reach I-90.... But I did think these forecasts were a little extreme on the snowfall. I always figured if I get a foot I'm good out of this kind of event. Here in ENY the really epic ones are usually coastal storms. As Andy said, better to err a bit low and have to raise your snowfall.

WROC 8 IN rochester lowered his totals from 10-14 I-90 north to 4-7" with ice!!!!!!!!

I really hope that guy is wrong

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There is quite the temp difference across the Ottawa area right now.

http://www.wundergro...alue=IONOTTAW15

I was in the north end of Barrhaven at 19h45 and the car temp thing said -13 c...by the time I got to Fallowfield/Eagelson it was at -18 c (20h00) and then at home in Bridlewood the home thermometer said -17.6 c....the 20h00 reading from CYOW was something like -13 c...typically CYOW often reads at or below my home set.....although now @ 21h50, the home set is reading -16.4 c. I assume clouds are moving in.

Yeah I'm at -12.2C near St. paul University

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There is quite the temp difference across the Ottawa area right now.

http://www.wundergro...alue=IONOTTAW15

I was in the north end of Barrhaven at 19h45 and the car temp thing said -13 c...by the time I got to Fallowfield/Eagelson it was at -18 c (20h00) and then at home in Bridlewood the home thermometer said -17.6 c....the 20h00 reading from CYOW was something like -13 c...typically CYOW often reads at or below my home set.....although now @ 21h50, the home set is reading -16.4 c. I assume clouds are moving in.

most likely it is due to cloudiness i imagine

defintely will be adjusting my forecast

its wild out in the midwest!

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WROC 8 IN rochester lowered his totals from 10-14 I-90 north to 4-7" with ice!!!!!!!!

I really hope that guy is wrong

I saw that...its a little ridiculous. To go against the general gloominess setting in around here, I thought the radar presentation has been looking fantastic. There certainly is a dry slot from hell, but precip is blossoming quickly in WNY with very strong returns out of the gate, and I don't think they are sleet either. The low level jet is cranking up some strong low lever convergence along this steep warm front. I expect some intense snowfall rates before some rogue pings mix in and the dry slot works through. Still thinking 10 inches is a good bet in the Roch.

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I dunno how much sleet will ever reach I-90.... But I did think these forecasts were a little extreme on the snowfall. I always figured if I get a foot I'm good out of this kind of event. Here in ENY the really epic ones are usually coastal storms. As Andy said, better to err a bit low and have to raise your snowfall.

personally i think the 'thump' of snow is going to be intense

you guys had the nice appetizer snow today also, that doesn hurt

the 30 inches albany was throwing around the other day was pretty silly i thought.

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