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Feb 1-2 Upstate NY / North Country Major Winter Storm


CNYWxGuy

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Well, as I've said before, I'm hoping for 6-8", although 10" or a foot be fantastic. Time to start building this snowpack. With another storm possible next week and a bitter cold shot around the 10th we could seriously start building it!:snowman:

hints of a SE ridge in the long range :arrowhead:

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You guys are all humping the RUC. It really stunk in a couple of those fringe coastal storms. It teased me with good banding and a more westerly track, etc. only to totally capitulate to the NAM, etc. hour by hour.

New ruc was horrible, even places to my north only get 5"-7.5"...No 1 gets 10" , I hope its to warm.. new england and parts of eny get 7-10

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You guys are all humping the RUC. It really stunk in a couple of those fringe coastal storms. It teased me with good banding and a more westerly track, etc. only to totally capitulate to the NAM, etc. hour by hour.

the RUC is awful once it gets outside 3 hours ive heard

believe it or not, ive never looked at the RUC, not once in my life. dont even know where to find it.

just look at the radar and nowcasting, obs.

thats an absolute beast to our west.

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It can be good for Upstate NY also... It depends upon the degree of it. I suppose we probably have a southeast ridge today.

i agree

it means no more OTS and boring weather.....it means synoptic chances every few days.

mix in some cold highs in quebec and an EPO/PNA, recipe for great storms i dont care if it mixes with sleet

gimme snow snow snow build that pack.

:lol:

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New ruc was horrible, even places to my north only get 5"-7.5"...No 1 gets 10" , I hope its to warm.. new england and parts of eny get 7-10

My only purpose for viewing tonight's 0z runs is to check out the 0 line at 850. Other than that, I am in storm mode from here on out, and the radars show a HUGE swath of precipitation heading our way. P-type will be the biggest issue for us vs QPF IMO. :popcorn:

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its not so much the 850mb temp thats are the problem..Its 1000-500mb thickness(aka 540 line)..Im just hoping the heavy precip offsets that, this will be nowcasting no matter what..

the nam has a warm layer >0 between 750-850 mb at ALB I dunno about UCA though.. it looks like sleet should mix in here at some point the question is when.

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Albany dosent seem concerned

TOMORROW...AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS MICHIGAN

AND LAKE ERIE...WITH A NEW SFC CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE MID

ATLANTIC REGION. A DUAL JET STREAK COUPLING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER

THE NORTHEAST. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ONGOING WITH HVY

SNOWFALL. THE H850-700 2D FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NAM/GFS IS VERY

STRONG. THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS

WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MOVING INTO THE MID HUDSON

VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT. WE LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO

THE COLDER GFS THERMAL PROFILES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT

MAINLY SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST.

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Head north a bit more. :) You could be in the Adirondacks in 2 hours time..... 88 to 30 north ...into the heart of the central Dacks. :snowman:

Yeah, I almost moved up--- but I'm already 500 miles from home. Need to get back Thursday. Should have had a couple other options. If I get break 10, its been a decent trip. Knew going in it was about a 15 inch max if everything was perfect. Now, 10 looks reasonable between the two--

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look at the trend though, the ruc was a blow torch earlier this afternoon w/ 0 850 line to the s. shore of Lake Ont.. now it keeps it south of the thruway. a shift of 25 miles in just a few hrs. Let me grasp at my straws please!!

:thumbsup: i noted that on the wivb's blog

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