ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Well, as I've said before, I'm hoping for 6-8", although 10" or a foot be fantastic. Time to start building this snowpack. With another storm possible next week and a bitter cold shot around the 10th we could seriously start building it! hints of a SE ridge in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 New ruc was horrible, even places to my north only get 5"-7.5"...No 1 gets 10" , I hope its to warm.. new england and parts of eny get 7-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Head north a bit more. You could be in the Adirondacks in 2 hours time..... 88 to 30 north ...into the heart of the central Dacks. I've become resigned to only another 2-4 inches down here. With that, 3.5 inches is needed for 10 on this trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You guys are all humping the RUC. It really stunk in a couple of those fringe coastal storms. It teased me with good banding and a more westerly track, etc. only to totally capitulate to the NAM, etc. hour by hour. New ruc was horrible, even places to my north only get 5"-7.5"...No 1 gets 10" , I hope its to warm.. new england and parts of eny get 7-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 hints of a SE ridge in the long range SE ridge means nothing to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You guys are all humping the RUC. It really stunk in a couple of those fringe coastal storms. It teased me with good banding and a more westerly track, etc. only to totally capitulate to the NAM, etc. hour by hour. the RUC is awful once it gets outside 3 hours ive heard believe it or not, ive never looked at the RUC, not once in my life. dont even know where to find it. just look at the radar and nowcasting, obs. thats an absolute beast to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Well the hrrr has been pretty darn good this yr and this morning ..According to kbgm it was the best with temps..It shows my area around 2" by 8-9 in the morn when the heaviest stuff should be well under way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It can be good for Upstate NY also... It depends upon the degree of it. I suppose we probably have a southeast ridge today. SE ridge means nothing to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 the midwest mets are indeed touting the HRRR as doing very well i dont know where to find it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 im defintely considering tweaking the accums based on the radar presentation places in the midwest are gusting to near 70mph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Nothing on radar, but light snow has started here SE of Syracuse, before 8 pm. temp dropped a couple degrees, to about 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 so logan should we ignore this RUC? it goes hard with the warm temps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It can be good for Upstate NY also... It depends upon the degree of it. I suppose we probably have a southeast ridge today. i agree it means no more OTS and boring weather.....it means synoptic chances every few days. mix in some cold highs in quebec and an EPO/PNA, recipe for great storms i dont care if it mixes with sleet gimme snow snow snow build that pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 See if it is matching up with reality in areas west of you such as southern Ontario I guess.... so logan should we ignore this RUC? it goes hard with the warm temps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 so logan should we ignore this RUC? it goes hard with the warm temps lol i would use it for the first few hours apparently its doing well with the leading edge of precip well in advance of where the NAM/GFS had it ive just heard dont use it past a few hours. take it run by run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 the midwest mets are indeed touting the HRRR as doing very well i dont know where to find it though http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 New ruc was horrible, even places to my north only get 5"-7.5"...No 1 gets 10" , I hope its to warm.. new england and parts of eny get 7-10 My only purpose for viewing tonight's 0z runs is to check out the 0 line at 850. Other than that, I am in storm mode from here on out, and the radars show a HUGE swath of precipitation heading our way. P-type will be the biggest issue for us vs QPF IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 http://rapidrefresh.....gov/hrrrconus/ Thank you for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 its not so much the 850mb temp thats are the problem..Its 1000-500mb thickness(aka 540 line)..Im just hoping the heavy precip offsets that, this will be nowcasting no matter what.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 so logan should we ignore this RUC? it goes hard with the warm temps lol look at the trend though, the ruc was a blow torch earlier this afternoon w/ 0 850 line to the s. shore of Lake Ont.. now it keeps it south of the thruway. a shift of 25 miles in just a few hrs. Let me grasp at my straws please!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 its not so much the 850mb temp thats are the problem..Its 1000-500mb thickness(aka 540 line)..Im just hoping the heavy precip offsets that, this will be nowcasting no matter what.. the nam has a warm layer >0 between 750-850 mb at ALB I dunno about UCA though.. it looks like sleet should mix in here at some point the question is when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Albany dosent seem concerned TOMORROW...AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS MICHIGANAND LAKE ERIE...WITH A NEW SFC CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A DUAL JET STREAK COUPLING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ONGOING WITH HVY SNOWFALL. THE H850-700 2D FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NAM/GFS IS VERY STRONG. THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MOVING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT. WE LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COLDER GFS THERMAL PROFILES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Head north a bit more. You could be in the Adirondacks in 2 hours time..... 88 to 30 north ...into the heart of the central Dacks. Yeah, I almost moved up--- but I'm already 500 miles from home. Need to get back Thursday. Should have had a couple other options. If I get break 10, its been a decent trip. Knew going in it was about a 15 inch max if everything was perfect. Now, 10 looks reasonable between the two-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 http://rapidrefresh.....gov/hrrrconus/ thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 OT: this is the 3rd time seeing Google reading this topic today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 damn Chicago is getting rocked pieces of Wrigley Field flying off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 updated at 641 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 look at the trend though, the ruc was a blow torch earlier this afternoon w/ 0 850 line to the s. shore of Lake Ont.. now it keeps it south of the thruway. a shift of 25 miles in just a few hrs. Let me grasp at my straws please!! i noted that on the wivb's blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 here is kbgm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The NAM doesn't suck-- Its still a fast mover-- but up here infers a snow sleet mix at the peak, but its not horrible. A tad wetter too..Looks like .75 QPF or so. Maybe 6 more inches?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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