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Feb 1-2 Upstate NY / North Country Major Winter Storm


CNYWxGuy

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Great write up OL. Here's a link to a forecast for our region which someone posted on the acuweather forum. What do you think?

http://forums.accuwe...dpost&p=1286822

wow thats incredibly specific

not sure if that person is running some sort of supercomputer out of his basement to be so detailed locally :lol:

kudos to him for putting a lot of work on that, that would take forever i imagine.

having said that, i dont know what data he could possibly be using to be so specific. he is obviosly hedging high. good luck to him.

i did forget to add that this wont be a pleasant storm at all.....very cold and windy.....because of that, motorists and pedestrians wont be having any fun thats for sure, and the roads wont be pretty, the impact will be high end moderate given the daytime and weekday timing......basically a classic cold storm. not sure if youve been around ottawa for one of those yet. :)

i dont expect snowgrowth to be great given the wind but itll stack up given the temps.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

326 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-020030-

NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...

BATAVIA...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE

326 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...INITIAL TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF SNOW FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...

A WINTER STORM IS POISED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY TONIGHT. FOR THE

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED

SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

THEN...AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO

THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BEGINNING AROUND 10 TO 11PM...POSSIBLY A BIT

EARLIER WELL SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND IN WYOMING COUNTY. BY

MIDNIGHT...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. AFTER

MIDNIGHT...SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET SOUTH OF

ABOUT ROUTE 20A...WITH HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE BUFFALO

METRO AREA.

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Blizzard warnings issued for Hamilton, Ontario as well as London, Niagara regions!! First widespread blizzard warning in Ontario since the March 1993 superstorm.

OL, I think it'll be interesting to see how deep we can get our snowpack this year. Remember that we haven't had a thaw in a month.

:scooter:

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR:

=NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON

=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX

=NEW= OXFORD - BRANT

=NEW= ST. CATHARINES - GRIMSBY - NORTHERN NIAGARA REGION

=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE MAJOR STORM WHICH WAS BORN IN TEXAS LATE MONDAY IS

APPROACHING SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXPANSIVE SWATH

OF WINTERY PRECIPITATION. HEAVY SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN

SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEAST

TO THE GOLDEN HORSESHOE AROUND MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD TOTAL

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 30 CM ARE LIKELY BEFORE THE SNOW

BEGINS TO LIGHTEN UP WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS

ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HAMILTON TO ST. CATHARINES CORRIDOR.

IN ADDITION, STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 40 GUSTING TO 60 OR 70

KM/H WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOW, CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

NOTE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA FOR ONTARIO WAS

CHANGED JUNE 2010 TO REMOVE COLD WIND CHILL REQUIREMENTS. THE

NEW CRITERIA REQUIRES A VISIBILITY OF 400 METRES OR LESS IN

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF

40 KM/H FOR AT LEAST FOUR HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN MORE

BLIZZARD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED IN THE FUTURE.

THIS IS THE FIRST WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN

ONTARIO SINCE MARCH 1993, DURING THE 'STORM OF THE CENTURY'.

THIS IS A WARNING THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR

OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER

CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.

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i posted this at the end of a MW threead re: the blizzard warning for Ontario and Draxinars comment about march 08 HOVS

march 08 was a doozy for ottawa and montreal (i was in ottawa), easily the heaviest snowfall i have ever seen around these parts....in terms of widespread heavy snowfall.....i recall police on snowmobiles taking place.

but in terms of ferocity, the december 16/07 storm was defintely the most fierce storm i have seen around our area since the Superstorm.

and that dec 15/07 was a crippler, from Windsor straight through to Quebec City. multipe reports of TSSN. i believe it was the worst storm to impact that *entire* heavily populated corridor since a storm in the late 60s, i read..........if any storm deserved a blizzard nomination, that was it....BUt of course it occurred on a Sunday. that may be a factor.

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Blizzard warnings issued for Hamilton, Ontario as well as London, Niagara regions!! First widespread blizzard warning in Ontario since the March 1993 superstorm.

OL, I think it'll be interesting to see how deep we can get our snowpack this year. Remember that we haven't had a thaw in a month.

It will certainly feel like a blizzard here with the forecast temperatures for us. Personally, I feel a blizzard warning should have a cold factor...could be because when I think blizzard, I think of old fashioned prairie blizzards or arctic blizzards which have biting cold as well. The cold then becomes as dangerous, if not more, a factor as compared to reduced visibilities. But oh well...that's just my view!

but in terms of ferocity, the december 16/07 storm was defintely the most fierce storm i have seen around our area since the Superstorm.

and that dec 15/07 was a crippler, from Windsor straight through to Quebec City. multipe reports of TSSN. i believe it was the worst storm to impact that *entire* heavily populated corridor since a storm in the late 60s, i read..........if any storm deserved a blizzard nomination, that was it....BUt of course it occurred on a Sunday. that may be a factor.

I pretty much missed all the December 07 storms as I was in Australia for some conferences. I followed the action from there, softly weeping as I wasn't here haha!

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3 things that are a positive for us

1. the precursor snow today, often portends something much bigger

2. the historic nature of the storm in the MW, these type of storms often surprise

3. h7 track is excellent up here

i certainly wouldnt be shocked by an overperformer.

The greatest overperformer I can recall is December 2008. We got over a foot when they'd been calling for it to change to rain.

Do you remember the February 12-13,1993 storm? 37cm for Ottawa! I checked the Citizen for the time on microfilm and it had originally been forecast to be a 20cm event (8")

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Any snow reports from the GFL / LG region, Andy and co?

Around 3" but there are some funky bands over LG NOW (another one over Albany West too). We're trying to figure WTF they. They drift south then stop, drift back north then they dissipate. TBH we're at a loss as to why they form and what's causing them...

Still looks good for round two here..we're thinking a burst of convective snow plus mius 2hours either side of 12z tomorrow with snowfall rates easily 2-3/hour. In house program favors Saratoga to GFL for this to happen. Thinking the bulk of the snowfall tomorrow will be during this time period.

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Around 3" but there are some funky bands over LG NOW (another one over Albany West too). We're trying to figure WTF they. They drift south then stop, drift back north then they dissipate. TBH we're at a loss as to why they form and what's causing them...

Still looks good for round two here..we're thinking a burst of convective snow plus mius 2hours either side of 12z tomorrow with snowfall rates easily 2-3/hour. In house program favors Saratoga to GFL for this to happen. Thinking the bulk of the snowfall tomorrow will be during this time period.

yea the webcam at my house just north of bolton landing was showing good snow a few mins ago.

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The greatest overperformer I can recall is December 2008. We got over a foot when they'd been calling for it to change to rain.

Do you remember the February 12-13,1993 storm? 37cm for Ottawa! I checked the Citizen for the time on microfilm and it had originally been forecast to be a 20cm event (8")

i absolutely remember it.......one of my favorite storms ever!

why because t was such an overformer. the call as you said for 20cm but we got stuck under a persistent deformation band that just pivoted and hung around......the storm was coming from the west, colorado low i recall and across the southern plains and chicago and the lower lakes....redeveloped on the coast and went inland

i remember the snow just wouldnt quit and kept piling up several hours after it was supposed to stop, the flake size was fantastic during this time. it really stacked up. it wasnt very windy i recall.

i dont recall a lot of storms, but that one i defintiely do.

EDITed

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anybody have a good site for hrly pressure falls. I don't like the Ruc pushing the low to detroit. But I do like the current pressure isos on the current map showing a direction more south for the storm. Any info or opinions welcome. I'm in rochester so a track across Pa/ ny border is best, NOT detroit! LOL

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You could try this...

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=16&parm=pchg

anybody have a good site for hrly pressure falls. I don't like the Ruc pushing the low to detroit. But I do like the current pressure isos on the current map showing a direction more south for the storm. Any info or opinions welcome. I'm in rochester so a track across Pa/ ny border is best, NOT detroit! LOL

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Still a nice midwest-based storm... but quite a let down after the alarms were sounded yesterday by the models. :gun_bandana:

I never felt comfortable with the amts that were hurled around yesterday..I was the lowest here in Albany. Too much SW flow aloft above 850. I don't like SW flow (very strong too) If flow was more S'ly or SSE I would have felt good going higher....

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