wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If im not mistaken u can get snow with high thickness, im not sure what it would take but heavy precip should help.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Cobb output has only 0.03"of sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 based on the model data at 12z and the fact that the storm is intensifying more rapidly than modeled......with the impact on occlusion/dryslot TBD. i dont think i can reasonably go higher than 1. ottawa-montreal.....generally 4-8 inches (10-20cm) gradient will be N-S with highest amounts will be recorded south of town vs northern section, ie N of ottawa river, N shore of island 2. along the international border and within about 15 miles, 6-10 inches (15-25cm) including KMSS-cornwall, kingston 3. north of the cities 2-4 inches (5-10cm) including ottawa valley, ski areas snow should begin around dawn in lake ontario communities and overspread rest of the region by mid morning. snow should last between 14-18 hours. issues 1. intensity of storm and effect on occlusion.....wildcard here. a stronger storm means we get more snow, but a stronger storm could mean an earlier occlusion and weakening of precip field, yielding less snow. 2. like the track of the h7 low....part of the reason i hedged the higher amounts.....if the storm doesnt weaken as quickly, then this could help linger accumulating snowfall and bump up amounts. we wont be affected by the dryslot. 3. track of low itself on latest RGEM/euro to now brings it to SW tip of lake erie, thats a prime spot for us 4. need to watch storm in midwest, keep an eye on intensity and surface analysis. in addition, feels like we have been tracking forever, but in fact another round of model cycles still to come before snow even hits the door..... will adjust if necessary later today. looking at the surface and upper levels on the latest models, was expecting a bump up in qpf but in fact euro/gfs and RGEM bumped qpf down. NAM was up. i think all the models are having an issue with #1, which really is what it boils down to. past experience says primary low and h7 with this track deliver in our area, but i am hesitant due to the PV positioning and very much could see an earlier collpase in precip shield due to occlusion. thus ill play it in the middle. as far as max potential goes....if everything breaks right, i could see a foot along the border and around 10 inches in the cities....but dont be disappointed if only 3 or 4 inches falls either due to the storm bombing out too far SW. enjoy the snow everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Round 1 did great down here in Oneonta. 6.5 inches... I'd bet 20 to 1 ratios . I took a nap after my longer walk and we got that last inch. Impressed. 8 tomorrow is my goal. very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 atleast for 1 run the ruc has improved lol Southern tier goes from an inch or 2, to 4-5or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Rough estimate of 7" here. S+ for several hours with visibilities of 1/8-1/4 mile. Small flakes. Ratio looks to be about 12 or 13 to 1. Nice 1st batch here in the CD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The hrrr nailed this 1st batch..It had about 4" here which im right around..And south and east of me it had 5-7.5. .Also had utica area in the 2-3" and they picked up 2.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Shocked you say 12 to 1...it was pure fluff here. I had to shovel behind my car where the plow threw the snow and even that was light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm kinda surprised if you had those kind of ratios. I was thinking my snow was the pin like dense stuff and probably not much more than 10-1...maybe 12-1. Edit: sounds like I had the same snow quality as you snowgeek, but huffwx is 50 miles southwest..... 5 inches down here and probably about it for part 1. BTW...I'm only about 50 miles up I-88 from Oneonta. In good weather a 50 minute scenic ride southwes through the northwest corner of the Catskills. You should get to Cooperstown ...it will be beautiful in the snow along frozen Otsego Lake. Round 1 did great down here in Oneonta. 6.5 inches... I'd bet 20 to 1 ratios . I took a nap after my longer walk and we got that last inch. Impressed. 8 tomorrow is my goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hmm somehow that went on twice.... Anyway re: the snow versus sleet. The heaviest period can overcome the warm wedge and favor snow. Theory being the sleet would be as it is winding down anyway so not too worried about wasting much qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 cmc fwiw http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Shocked you say 12 to 1...it was pure fluff here. I had to shovel behind my car where the plow threw the snow and even that was light. The stuff I had this morning was very grainy and hurt when it hit you in the face. Think it was around a 10:1 ratio if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Same here cny, very crunchy snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I was suspicious of snowfall estimates that expected 15-1 type snow. After all we are very narrowly dodging an ice storm and a primary low tracking to around nw PA. We should be very happy to pull out a nice snowstorm here in an imperfect situation. Same here cny, very crunchy snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 nmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I approve. nmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm kinda surprised if you had those kind of ratios. I was thinking my snow was the pin like dense stuff and probably not much more than 10-1...maybe 12-1. This is the type of snow I've observed here at work in Latham today. Last I measured we were above 4 inches, but that was a few hours ago. The snow is dry, but very dense (pin like). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just about right on forecast and in-step with the models... a general 3-6 across C NY with Round 1. I still think this 2nd wave is going to pack a punch (i.e 'thump snow') across many areas S of I-90 before any changeover or mixing has a chance to reel its ugly head and cut in to snowfall totals. JMO... **********************12 HOUR SNOWFALL********************** LOCATION 12 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...BROOME COUNTY... 1 NW VESTAL CENTER 5.0 1236 PM 2/01 2 SSE WHITNEY POINT 4.2 106 PM 2/01 ENDICOTT 3.6 921 AM 2/01 3.6 INCHES AT 10 AM ...CHENANGO COUNTY... COVENTRY 5.1 113 PM 2/01 SHERBURNE 4.2 119 PM 2/01 ...CORTLAND COUNTY... 1 N FREETOWN CORNERS 5.3 1229 PM 2/01 MARATHON 4.5 1046 AM 2/01 1 NNE MARATHON 3.5 919 AM 2/01 ...ONEIDA COUNTY... WHITESBORO 2.4 1226 PM 2/01 ...OTSEGO COUNTY... COOPERSTOWN 6.0 1136 AM 2/01 LAURENS 5.0 114 PM 2/01 2 WNW LAURENS 4.4 915 AM 2/01 ...STEUBEN COUNTY... 1 NW HORNELL 3.0 808 AM 2/01 ...SULLIVAN COUNTY... GLEN WILD 4.3 1131 AM 2/01 SULLIVAN CO REG ARPT 3.6 920 AM 2/01 ...TIOGA COUNTY... 2 SE RICHFORD 3.2 845 AM 2/01 ...TOMPKINS COUNTY... 2 SSE DANBY 4.3 815 AM 2/01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 based on the model data at 12z and the fact that the storm is intensifying more rapidly than modeled......with the impact on occlusion/dryslot TBD. i dont think i can reasonably go higher than 1. ottawa-montreal.....generally 4-8 inches (10-20cm) gradient will be N-S with highest amounts will be recorded south of town vs northern section, ie N of ottawa river, N shore of island 2. along the international border and within about 15 miles, 6-10 inches (15-25cm) including KMSS-cornwall, kingston 3. north of the cities 2-4 inches (5-10cm) including ottawa valley, ski areas snow should begin around dawn in lake ontario communities and overspread rest of the region by mid morning. snow should last between 14-18 hours. issues 1. intensity of storm and effect on occlusion.....wildcard here. a stronger storm means we get more snow, but a stronger storm could mean an earlier occlusion and weakening of precip field, yielding less snow. 2. like the track of the h7 low....part of the reason i hedged the higher amounts.....if the storm doesnt weaken as quickly, then this could help linger accumulating snowfall and bump up amounts. we wont be affected by the dryslot. 3. track of low itself on latest RGEM/euro to now brings it to SW tip of lake erie, thats a prime spot for us 4. need to watch storm in midwest, keep an eye on intensity and surface analysis. in addition, feels like we have been tracking forever, but in fact another round of model cycles still to come before snow even hits the door..... will adjust if necessary later today. looking at the surface and upper levels on the latest models, was expecting a bump up in qpf but in fact euro/gfs and RGEM bumped qpf down. NAM was up. i think all the models are having an issue with #1, which really is what it boils down to. past experience says primary low and h7 with this track deliver in our area, but i am hesitant due to the PV positioning and very much could see an earlier collpase in precip shield due to occlusion. thus ill play it in the middle. as far as max potential goes....if everything breaks right, i could see a foot along the border and around 10 inches in the cities....but dont be disappointed if only 3 or 4 inches falls either due to the storm bombing out too far SW. enjoy the snow everyone! Great write up OL. Here's a link to a forecast for our region which someone posted on the acuweather forum. What do you think? http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=25054&view=findpost&p=1286822 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hmm somehow that went on twice.... Anyway re: the snow versus sleet. The heaviest period can overcome the warm wedge and favor snow. Theory being the sleet would be as it is winding down anyway so not too worried about wasting much qpf. True, There is nothing worse than warm air aloft busting up thickness levels and turning a nice snow event into an icy mix. If the precipitation is heavy enough for some dynamic cooling to occur It will make a lot of people happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The flakes here were tiny. Albany NWSFO measure .16" from 9-10am with about 2" of snow. I just shoveled and it wasn't light. Now I'm thinking closer to10 to 1 overall (flakes were very small at times) but that's just a guess at this point. I just measured 19" on the ground in my backyard. 8" under and including the icy layer and 11" on top. I wish that I cleaned off a board before this round, but I'm estimating around 7.5" of snow today. This is awesome!!!!!!!!!!! Shocked you say 12 to 1...it was pure fluff here. I had to shovel behind my car where the plow threw the snow and even that was light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Reporting from Redfield.. had some minor issues with the water pump but all is well now. about 27" of snowpack right now. Fire is blazing, groceries are in, and now to shovel the front porch roof before the main event. Reading through where I left off and looking at some of these latest QPF outputs. I think things look good for Redfield. I'm thinking 16"+. Huff I will PM you back in just a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Great write up OL. Here's a link to a forecast for our region which someone posted on the acuweather forum. What do you think? http://forums.accuwe...dpost&p=1286822 Great links....without any scientific/meteorology backup to all of this I find the accuweather forum posting to be very specific in terms of actual places..some of which are only a few km apart. I have found that OL has a great handle on the models and the local geography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 10-1 snow is fine by me because it has some durability to it and we need that going deeper into February. BTW...guess you got off today? Duanesburg did a full day of school. Maybe they actually look at radar trends there because after getting the kids in (with 1-2" acccum. early), they now had time to get the roads cleaned for normal dismissal. They didn't need to waste a snow day. The flakes here were tiny. Albany NWSFO measure .16" from 9-10am with about 2" of snow. I just shoveled and it wasn't light. Now I'm thinking closer to10 to 1 overall (flakes were very small at times) but that's just a guess at this point. I just measured 19" on the ground in my backyard. 8" under and including the icy layer and 11" on top. I wish that I cleaned off a board before this round, but I'm estimating around 7.5" of snow today. This is awesome!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well, I'm hoping for 4-6". It'll likely be something in between. This just isn't our winter. I am excited, but think that this storm has been way overhyped, especially on the accuweather forums, where they seem to think Toronto could get 18-20" or something. It could happen but if it did, it would be almost unprecedented. I remember the December 2005 storm, which was really hyped up, but which turned into a huge bust for Toronto and, in some respects, Ottawa. Ideally, I'd like 8-10", but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think the primary bombing out increased your chances as the deformation from that lifts more north..... I have been saying 3-6" there, but IMO 6 inches is getting more likely. Well, I'm hoping for 4-6". It'll likely be something in between. This just isn't our winter. I am excited, but think that this storm has been way overhyped, especially on the accuweather forums, where they seem to think Toronto could get 18-20" or something. It could happen but if it did, it would be almost unprecedented. I remember the December 2005 storm, which was really hyped up, but which turned into a huge bust for Toronto and, in some respects, Ottawa. Ideally, I'd like 8-10", but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I told my school to not have an early dismissal. They usually listen to me. They didn't today. 2:30 would have been much better for the kids to drive home than 12:10. Silly schools!!!! 10-1 snow is fine by me because it has some durability to it and we need that going deeper into February. BTW...guess you got off today? Duanesburg did a full day of school. Maybe they actually look at radar trends there because after getting the kids in (with 1-2" acccum. early), they now had time to get the roads cleaned for normal dismissal. They didn't need to waste a snow day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18Z NAM really cut back on precip for round 2. Hmmmmmm????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Great links....without any scientific/meteorology backup to all of this I find the accuweather forum posting to be very specific in terms of actual places..some of which are only a few km apart. I have found that OL has a great handle on the models and the local geography. I agree. I really hope the person who's forecast I posted the link to turns out to be right, but fear it is overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Our infant's daycare closes if Schalmont closes...which is more than usual this year. I would think they would coordinate more with what Duanesburg does as Schalmont covers very hilly territory from Mariaville, through northern Princetown and the Rotterdam hills. The early dismissals were silly as conditions were much worse around noon than they are now. As for the storm, I would guess about the same, 5 inches or so...keeping fingers crossed for good dynamics in the morning... 10-1 snow is fine by me because it has some durability to it and we need that going deeper into February. BTW...guess you got off today? Duanesburg did a full day of school. Maybe they actually look at radar trends there because after getting the kids in (with 1-2" acccum. early), they now had time to get the roads cleaned for normal dismissal. They didn't need to waste a snow day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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