StotaRattler Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest 12z runs indicate the 0 line at 850 at or just north of I-90 for CNY. Lots of pinging tomorrow morning I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yea this storm has huge bust potential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I've not checked western NY--- But looking at the NAM, BGM will be lucky to break 6 in round 2--- warms darn fast. Even up here in Oneonta--- 6 before a mix may be realistic. Fast speed is an issue too--North of SYR to the TUG look to be slammed longer tomorrow. Still--I'll see a foot, maybe 14 inches total. close to 6 here now, 6 before change, 1 inch crap, I inch after?? Hi Keith. Good luck with the new job. Round 1 up here has been a dud. Only about an inch, but I like your comments quoted above. Any lake enhancement here as this storm is moving more W to E, rather than more S to N? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yea this storm has huge bust potential.. I think if one takes the city of Oswego and draws a straight line east and west, areas north of that line will stay all snow. Other areas will be pinging in earnest tomorrow and I wouldn't even be surprised if a doozy of an ice storm hits the Southern Tier. I hope that 18z and 0z have better news for us along the I-90 corridor, but that is the way I see it at this point. 4-8" and about 3/4" of sleet is what I see right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Good luck guys! Long drought for you about to end... :snowman: :snowman: :snowman: Thanks..George Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 12z surface analysis on the NAM is 4mb too weak MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AR...SRN/ERN MO...SWRN IL CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 011254Z - 011730Z A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST BETWEEN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE NW /REF MCD 0064/ AND RAIN TO THE SE. LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES AOA 0.10 IN/HR WILL REMAIN LIKELY. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 999 MB CYCLONE IN FAR NERN TX WITH QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AR TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH 18Z...LOW-LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE TO THE N/NE OF THE CYCLONE FROM S-CNTRL MO INTO SWRN IL SHOULD SLOWLY COOL AS SWATHS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO SPREAD N/NEWD. 12Z SGF RAOB SAMPLED A SMALL ABOVE-FREEZING WARM NOSE /AROUND 1 DEG C AT 825 MB/...SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND A 50 MILE CORRIDOR OF SLEET FROM SWRN INTO E-CNTRL MO. THIS SLEET CORRIDOR SHOULD PIVOT INTO NWRN AR /PER 03Z SREF LIKELY PTYPE/...RELEGATING PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN TO S-CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I forgot about eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hi Keith. Good luck with the new job. Round 1 up here has been a dud. Only about an inch, but I like your comments quoted above. Any lake enhancement here as this storm is moving more W to E, rather than more S to N? Hey Dave-- We did well. 5.5 inches, maybe 6-- still some snow falling. 6-8 is our best tomorrow. I'm betting you get 12-18-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 this is defintely worrisome not sure how this would play out with the occlsion/dryslot......maybe a met can comment for our area AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL704 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011.UPDATE... VERIFICATION AT 12Z INDICATES STORM SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AT A RATE AS FAST OR FASTER THAN PROJECTIONS. COMPARING DATA...PLUS USING NUMEROUS TECHNIQUES SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY NOT ONLY BE STRONGER...BUT COULD OCCLUDE OR WRAP UP MORE THAN PLANNED BACK TOWARD OUR AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD RESULT IN EVEN HIGHERSNOW TOTALS...SNOW-FALL RATES AND POSSIBLE THUNDER-SNOW OVER ATLEAST THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT ALSO MAY RESULT INSLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS FOR MORE SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.THIS RISK SHOULD BE CONFIRMED IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED...BUT INDICATIONS CLEARLY SUPPORT THIS WILLNOT ONLY BE A MAJOR STORM OF NEAR HISTORIC PROPORTIONS...BUT MAYBE A BIT STRONGER FOR AT LEAST OUR SE 1/2 LOCATIONS THAN IS CURRENTLYFORECASTED.INDIVIDUALS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES ONTHIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. definitely makes the forecast trickier for us i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Fwiw that is 6hr ACC precip and the 0 c isotherm line is just making it to i-90..But yea not a good feeling about this..6z gfs also gave me sleet but only 0.05" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 this is defintely worrisome not sure how this would play out with the occlsion/dryslot......maybe a met can comment for our area AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL704 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011.UPDATE... VERIFICATION AT 12Z INDICATES STORM SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AT A RATE AS FAST OR FASTER THAN PROJECTIONS. COMPARING DATA...PLUS USING NUMEROUS TECHNIQUES SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY NOT ONLY BE STRONGER...BUT COULD OCCLUDE OR WRAP UP MORE THAN PLANNED BACK TOWARD OUR AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD RESULT IN EVEN HIGHERSNOW TOTALS...SNOW-FALL RATES AND POSSIBLE THUNDER-SNOW OVER ATLEAST THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT ALSO MAY RESULT INSLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS FOR MORE SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.THIS RISK SHOULD BE CONFIRMED IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED...BUT INDICATIONS CLEARLY SUPPORT THIS WILLNOT ONLY BE A MAJOR STORM OF NEAR HISTORIC PROPORTIONS...BUT MAYBE A BIT STRONGER FOR AT LEAST OUR SE 1/2 LOCATIONS THAN IS CURRENTLYFORECASTED.INDIVIDUALS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES ONTHIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. definitely makes the forecast trickier for us i think. Looks like Eastern Iowa and Western Illinois is going to get smacked hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 this is defintely worrisome not sure how this would play out with the occlsion/dryslot......maybe a met can comment for our area AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL704 AM CST TUE FEB 1 2011.UPDATE... VERIFICATION AT 12Z INDICATES STORM SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AT A RATE AS FAST OR FASTER THAN PROJECTIONS. COMPARING DATA...PLUS USING NUMEROUS TECHNIQUES SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY NOT ONLY BE STRONGER...BUT COULD OCCLUDE OR WRAP UP MORE THAN PLANNED BACK TOWARD OUR AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...THIS COULD RESULT IN EVEN HIGHERSNOW TOTALS...SNOW-FALL RATES AND POSSIBLE THUNDER-SNOW OVER ATLEAST THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT ALSO MAY RESULT INSLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS FOR MORE SEVERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.THIS RISK SHOULD BE CONFIRMED IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS.NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED...BUT INDICATIONS CLEARLY SUPPORT THIS WILLNOT ONLY BE A MAJOR STORM OF NEAR HISTORIC PROPORTIONS...BUT MAYBE A BIT STRONGER FOR AT LEAST OUR SE 1/2 LOCATIONS THAN IS CURRENTLYFORECASTED.INDIVIDUALS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES ONTHIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. definitely makes the forecast trickier for us i think. I still think you're on track to get 6-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My call for WNY. Take it for what its worth. Thinking lots of sleet will mix in from BUF south even possibly getting up to the Erie/ Niagara county border. Also rochester isnt included in this map but I'm going with 14.5" for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sleet is going to be a issue for the Mohawk Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If this happens i guess its just not are yr.. New information about the upcoming storm. How to break the news lightly…the sleet line is going to advance all the way into the Mohawk Valley tomorrow morning during the peak of this event. What does that mean? Well, we still anticipate accumulating snow on the onset, but we’ll lose out on accumulation with the transition. This lowers the overall amount of snow we’ll see for this event. Snowfall map coming soon The 540mb thickness line comes in between 5AM-9AM in the Mohawk Valley, where an estimated 0.5-7” of liquid occurs. This is essentially ‘lost snow’. Several inches of snow are still expected, but the foot plus totals look to be in the Adirondacks./quote] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 WOW I think my heart just failed. If this happens this will be the bust of the year for sure , if not the bust of the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Is WNY going to get an ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think my heart just failed. If this happens this will be the bust of the year for sure , if not the bust of the past few years. lets hope RUC is on drugs or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Is WNY going to get an ice storm? microcast showed some rain on the afternoon forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NWS BUF may want to change their Winter Storm Warnings to Flood Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That RUC model is 23 hours out..the best snows are going to be from 4 AM to 10 AM--- that warming comes after. I do think near the NY state line--3-5 is more likely with 4-8 the next level and 12+ north of ROC to SYR. RUC tends to be more NW as well...and sucks at 24 hours. But, its likely valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I don't think sleet here will be much of a factor in terms of accumulations. The heavy intensity during the main WAA burst will lead to snow - and sleet if it occurs will be as it lightens in intensity late morning/early afternoon. We are essentially looking at about a 10 hour fast event where the bulk accumulates... I think some people were thinking epic amounts would occur, but this is not a Noreaster..its Midwest storm where we get a nice warm advection snowfall. I still feel on target to get 12"+ total. Almost 5" fell today so I need 7" tomorrow. I'm thinking about 10" here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Temperatures at the surface throughout this storm never make it even close to above freezing. So I am almost 100% sure little if any of the precip will be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 RUC suggests freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Round 1 did great down here in Oneonta. 6.5 inches... I'd bet 20 to 1 ratios . I took a nap after my longer walk and we got that last inch. Impressed. 8 tomorrow is my goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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