Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I actually measured and its very close to 3 inches already. I noted the hills outside town are 1500 feet and did some scouting last night. I'm somewhat beat from the drive and their computer system had issues last night when I showed up. Took them 45 minutes to get my room squared away. ( I got here at 1 AM and for some reason it cancelled my room) Heavy snow now-- great crystal growth, I imagine 15-20 ratio stuff. Going for a walk. dont you mean Jebwalk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 well i think this will be the first storm since i joined Eastern that will deliver snow to the entire region. not as much snow up here, but still freezing cold and windy ....... anyways its great to finally have a storm deliver to everyone in upstate and southern Canada still looking forward to the big coastal later this season that clubs everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 KBUF's discussion of dry slots and sleet are a bit disconcerting. They're calling for 8-15 along the south shore of LO. Anyone have any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 KBUF's discussion of dry slots and sleet are a bit worrisome. They're calling for 8-15 along the south shore of LO. Anyone have any thoughts? i havent looked specifically at your area, but i think its a valid concern. one thing ive noted is that for several model cycles in a row, intitialization has been too low with heights in the east coast and since cyclogenesis, too weak with the low. this suggests a more intense storm than modeled with dryslot being a but further north........but the other side is it could occlude further south which would be better for you guys. but dont hold me to it....im going to catchup with whats been going on in the midwest overnight, i believe met Baro Instability has prob been doing a play by play and that will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 wow the 12z NAM is causing an NWS server meltdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 signs were there yesterday imo, not suprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Pretty much tapered off here. Maybe they can plow the roads now. Was only 0.6 @ 7am but I'd say there was maybe 2" when I left home. Very fine grainy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 nice Huffwx! not sure if it will reach the MA snowgasm last year, but perhaps you can stick around for some lake effect and a couple more chances at snow in the next few days after this storm. We only had 22 inches from the SNOWGASM-- I'm sw towards Roanoke, VA-- 12 + 8+1+1/ dont you mean Jebwalk? Took a shorted walk-- once this clears I'm going to look for some trails or something. I have some cheaper snowpants--- they have the dual pant legs, one that is supposed to lock on your leg. It still rides up a little and I totally left on my ankle socks from driving. Was COLD in those drifts when the snow hits those 2 inch bare spots. Getting much lighter snow now-- close to 5.5 inches. NAM looks to be a little faster and warmer-- maybe 8 inches with a crusty inch on top of sleet and snow, with maybe another inch backside. Hoping to get 10 tomorrow. This stuff will compact like cotton-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just updated Tonight...Snow likely with patchy freezing drizzle in the evening... Then snow after midnight. Additional snow accumulation of 3 to 6 inches. Near steady temperature around 17. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Wednesday...Snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Additional snow accumulation of 6 to 12 inches. Brisk and cold with highs in the mid 20s. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Wednesday Night...Snow likely in the evening...then scattered snow showers after midnight. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Lows around 11. East winds 10 to 15 mph...becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of snow 60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Buffalos gonna get screwed again. 4-8 inches with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 signs were there yesterday imo, not suprised still gonna get rocked by a period of very heavy snow if you are along and north of I-90. probably highest accums just north of SYR and towards TG and into the dacks and higher elevations of the HV....would be my best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Winter storm watch issued for ottawa. I'm hoping for 6-10", although 8" would satisfy me given the setup. Looks like there will be some fairly strong winds to blow all the snow around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 based on overnight guidance, im bumping up the accums for eastern ontario/Sw quebec to 4-8 inches (10-20cm) final forecast this afternoon with full details and further tweaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Winter storm watch issued for ottawa. I'm hoping for 6-10", although 8" would satisfy me given the setup. Looks like there will be some fairly strong winds to blow all the snow around. based on overnight guidance, im bumping up the accums for eastern ontario/Sw quebec to 4-8 inches (10-20cm) final forecast this afternoon with full details and further tweaks. Good luck guys! Long drought for you about to end... :snowman: :snowman: :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Good luck guys! Long drought for you about to end... :snowman: :snowman: :snowman: Thanks LEK! Hope you guys can cash in too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We only had 22 inches from the SNOWGASM-- I'm sw towards Roanoke, VA-- 12 + 8+1+1/ Took a shorted walk-- once this clears I'm going to look for some trails or something. I have some cheaper snowpants--- they have the dual pant legs, one that is supposed to lock on your leg. It still rides up a little and I totally left on my ankle socks from driving. Was COLD in those drifts when the snow hits those 2 inch bare spots. Getting much lighter snow now-- close to 5.5 inches. NAM looks to be a little faster and warmer-- maybe 8 inches with a crusty inch on top of sleet and snow, with maybe another inch backside. Hoping to get 10 tomorrow. This stuff will compact like cotton-- Hey Keith!! Enjoying Upstate NY again I see! Welcome back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hey Keith!! Enjoying Upstate NY again I see! Welcome back. Thanks King-- I debated heading just north of SYR-- got a cheaper hotel down this way. Great morning so far,. Going to try and nap at some point because It looks like my heavy band tomorrow is between 5 and 10 am. You look to get blitzed up there in Liverpool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hey Keith!! Enjoying Upstate NY again I see! Welcome back. Waitin for a map from ya LEK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ruc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ruc how come mines different? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ruc link please man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Good luck guys! Long drought for you about to end... :snowman: :snowman: :snowman: thanks George! i dont think anyone can argue that all of us don't deserve this, and then some lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Alright, this is my 2nd / final thoughts for accumulations. See post #555 for Initial / 1st forecast from Yesterday Early Afternoon. Just a couple tweaks... 1) Expecting higher QPF now across extreme NNY, so widespread 10-12" amounts look good all the way to the Int'l border with the 2nd wave. 2) Highlighted the area just north of the C.D where I think the best chance for a cumulitive total of >18" is in play, especially across the high terrain in this area. I think the combination of No Mixing / Terrain / and an additional ~1.25 QPF... perhaps a bit higher (Pssbl Banding and addt'l wrap-around) will lead to a widespread 12-18" across this area with the 2nd wave thru Wednesday Night. Overall, still think everyone is game for an additional 6-18" with the main event Tonight thru late Wednesday Night (lowest amounts in the valleys along the NY-PA border and highest amounts in E NY), thus no real changes to the 13+ line, though some areas within could end up with slightly less. Slightly up't overall spot forecast amounts for a few places... GFL- +1.5 ALB- +1 UCA- +1 SYR- +1 BGM (Airport, not city)- No change ROC- No change BUF- No change ART- +2.5 ELM- No change PLB- +2.5 Hope everyone gets plastered Tonight and Wednesday!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 U couldn't move the localize 18" just a little west lol Jk good forecast and GL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/ thx man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 thx man Not a problem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I've not checked western NY--- But looking at the NAM, BGM will be lucky to break 6 in round 2--- warms darn fast. Even up here in Oneonta--- 6 before a mix may be realistic. Fast speed is an issue too--North of SYR to the TUG look to be slammed longer tomorrow. Still--I'll see a foot, maybe 14 inches total. close to 6 here now, 6 before change, 1 inch crap, I inch after?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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