lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM QPF OUTPUT http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p60_078l.gif BUF to ROC to SYR cooridor looks to be hardest hit. A solid 10-15" is a good bet for this area and wouldnt be surprised to see a few 18-20" lollipops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SREF is a lot more impressive looking than the NAM...I'm not sure what's up with the NAM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SREF is a lot more impressive looking than the NAM...I'm not sure what's up with the NAM . Maps? Links? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i hope they're not ignoring it SE of Lake Ontario should see some LES Thursday.....I'm just not sure how much. I've been watching this storm to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Maps? Links? P-Type MSLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SE of Lake Ontario should see some LES Thursday.....I'm just not sure how much. I've been watching this storm to much. Same here, this storm is a thing of beauty. The Upper level wind pattern is phenomenal, you can't beat a textbook coupled jet like that! As for Lake Effect, I've been curious about that myself. The V-day storm had quite a bit of Lake Enhancement under somewhat similar circumstances. Low level shear looks intense, so it will be nothing overly organized...just additional heat and moisture flux. Overall I see this storm as a highlight of this winter for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Same here, this storm is a thing of beauty. The Upper level wind pattern is phenomenal, you can't beat a textbook coupled jet like that! As for Lake Effect, I've been curious about that myself. The V-day storm had quite a bit of Lake Enhancement under somewhat similar circumstances. Low level shear looks intense, so it will be nothing overly organized...just additional heat and moisture flux. Overall I see this storm as a highlight of this winter for sure! Yes sir, our region is exactly where we want to be: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Same here, this storm is a thing of beauty. The Upper level wind pattern is phenomenal, you can't beat a textbook coupled jet like that! As for Lake Effect, I've been curious about that myself. The V-day storm had quite a bit of Lake Enhancement under somewhat similar circumstances. Low level shear looks intense, so it will be nothing overly organized...just additional heat and moisture flux. Overall I see this storm as a highlight of this winter for sure! I completely agree..it is very beautiful.... it's going to be the biggest storm we've seen in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NCEP is slower than ever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 gfs pre game snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM backs off a little with QPF, but the GFS holds steady with 1.5"+ in the CD!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 ALBis 13F / -1F......bit of dry air to saturate. Should be some good virga tonight for a while. Can you say dry layer. Those off the chart dewpoints are in the -50C's!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM gives kuca 1.48" of precip, 850 mb temps between -3.2 and -11.. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kuca.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Dave Longley - WSYR Syracuse 11:00 forecast just threw down 20"+ for large area down the thruway corridor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm more worried about the 750-800mb level for the warm tongue.....still looks OK though just a little less wiggle room. NAM gives kuca 1.48" of precip, 850 mb temps between -3.2 and -11.. http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kuca.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 From Environment Canada; their updated Special Weather Statement: A significant snowfall is quite possible in the Ottawa Valley including the national Capital region and over Extreme Eastern Ontario including Cornwall on Wednesday as the storm gets Closer. The winter storm watch may be expanded northwards and eastwards as conditions warrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z Nam is looking like an even more powerful storm. The Lake Ontario plain is riding the hairy edge of being in an absolute golden spot for this storm... The sfc low seems a little more robust on this run too, perhaps increasing our winds more than in previous forecasts. I'm liking this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 every single piece of guidance since the 12z runs has improved for my area......h7 low looking better and better as it crosses the region, as it as at h5. await RGEM/GFS 00z, hopefully the trends continue. You have to believe OL. You have to believe. I'm starting to have increased hope for 8-10" Man, what a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I have a feeling were not gonna get to much rest after this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I will tell you this storm has very impressive upper level support from the jet.....I think the primary low will hold on to its energy for awhile...I will be interesting to watch the transfer to the secondary on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 wow KSYR has a real shot at beating their all time snowfall record this year 92-93 I'm telling you. February 1993 redux OL. February 93 redux! High -17C in Ottawa today. Similar to end of January 1993, although our mean will finish two degrees celcius colder than that year. We have a similar snowpack to what we had at the end of February 93. Oh, the mean temperature in December 1992 was almost identical to December 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 there is nothing better than a foot plus storm followed by frigid temps below zero Are we still expecting that? Models seem to have backed off the late week cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Are we still expecting that? Models seem to have backed off the late week cold. It won't last long, but Thursday will be pretty freaking cold, especially with that fresh snowpack and clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It won't last long, but Thursday will be pretty freaking cold, especially with that fresh snowpack and clear skies. sounds good. Hopefully we get more vodka cold the week after, as well as more snow. February 1967, 1979 and 1993 are the ones to beat. 1934 is untouchable in my opinion. Record will stand forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Current radar http://www.accuweath...r.asp?play=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Brett Anderson of accuweather thinks only 2-4" in Ottawa, which sounds low to me given the recent model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hrrr 15hr snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 latest GFS gives me 8-10". I would be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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