ayuud Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 wktv in house model by 7 pm wed http://www.wktv.com/weather/blogs cant see buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NWS kalb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 And kbgm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z WRF was a cold / wet run... over 2.00" at ALB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WOCN10 CWUL 312036 Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada Montréal at 03:36 PM EST Monday 31 January 2011. ...Snow Wednesday over Southwestern Québec... A low pressure system developing over Texas will head up toward New England mid-week. Snow should begin Tuesday afternoon or evening and intensify Wednesday. Regions south of a line stretching from Montréal to Sherbrooke could receive more than 10 centimetres of snow Wednesday. This snow could be accompanied by blowing snow. Uncertainty regarding this weather system's track will have an impact on the amount of snow to be received. This bulletin is only an advisory notice and the public is advised to follow present and future warnings issued by Environment Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 wow KSYR has a real shot at beating their all time snowfall record this year 92-93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not cojones....... snowjones Bob has balls after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Check out my snowfall forecasts here... at WBNG.COM Went with a blend of the euro and gfs for the most part. Seems to be the going trend this winter... I think we will see some sleet along/south of the HWY 17 corridor and that will cut down on snow totals. The threat for icing has gone down thankfully... gfs is a little wetter than the euro for the entire event. With some pacific (see H2O vapor loop) and gulf moisture getting into this thing I couldn't go completely with the euro #'s regarding the qpf, but did not want to go on the high end either. I figure snow ratios will be 12:1 tonight with part 1, and 10:1-12:1 for round two... although the further south one goes that will change as sleet mixes in. By the time all is said and done some spots will have a new foot to foot and a half on the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The cold wet runs sure beats the warm wet runs. 18z WRF was a cold / wet run... over 2.00" at ALB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Check out my snowfall forecasts here... at WBNG.COM Went with a blend of the euro and gfs for the most part. Seems to be the going trend this winter... I think we will see some sleet along/south of the HWY 17 corridor and that will cut down on snow totals. The threat for icing has gone down thankfully... gfs is a little wetter than the euro for the entire event. With some pacific (see H2O vapor loop) and gulf moisture getting into this thing I couldn't go completely with the euro #'s regarding the qpf, but did not want to go on the high end either. I figure snow ratios will be 12:1 tonight with part 1, and 10:1-12:1 for round two... although the further south one goes that will change as sleet mixes in. By the time all is said and done some spots will have a new foot to foot and a half on the ground! This looks like a solid forecast. I posted my initial thoughts for NYS earlier this Afternoon and ran the 13+ line thru the northern half of the S Tier. I can see the Sus River Valley receiving a little less (10-12?) due to lower elevation / mixing, but those amounts could be higher if the NAM / WRF end up being closest to actual temp's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Stole this from the New England thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Things look to be right on track...The GFS and NAM are in Very good agreement on the track. These kind of warm air advection storms deepen very quickly and can dump a huge amount of snow...This one will feed off the moisture down south with a WACB. From what I see in the models right now I see no reason to change my earlier thoughts on snow amounts in post 539. I know this is not part of this sub forum. But something to keep and eye on will be the Severe weather outbreak tomorrow in Texas and Mississippi. I'm more interested in that than I am the snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgottmann Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Bob has balls after all. He must have been looking at this map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 There is gonna be a little nowcasting with this over running precip..The models seem to go North and south from run to run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM 0C line is definitely 100 miles north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 This incoming slug of moisture... aka "Over-running Event" looks pretty impressive on the midwest radars ATTM. SPC noted in their recent MCD that convective banding could lead to enhanced snowfall rates above 1" / Hr. 00z NAM 24-Hour Over-running QPF targets the Srn Catskills with >.50"... Based on the above, would not be surprised to see 7-9" reports out of the Srn Catskills region with this 1st event, just a thought as the wheels turn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nam is further south yet 850s are warmer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM is slowly coming in line with the other guidance but its taking its sweet time getitng there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That sure does look beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 every single piece of guidance since the 12z runs has improved for my area......h7 low looking better and better as it crosses the region, as it as at h5. await RGEM/GFS 00z, hopefully the trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM QPF OUTPUT http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p60_078l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 HRRR A bit further north with the initial impulse.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM QPF OUTPUT http://www.nco.ncep....am_p60_078l.gif That is esentially all qpf (for our region) for the second storm...first storm is before this...sweet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 With NE winds and cold temps for the event, anyone know why KBUF hasn't mentioned any lake enhancement for the southern LO shoreline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 With NE winds and cold temps for the event, anyone know why KBUF hasn't mentioned any lake enhancement for the southern LO shoreline? i hope they're not ignoring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.