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Feb 1-2 Upstate NY / North Country Major Winter Storm


CNYWxGuy

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WOCN10 CWUL 312036

Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada Montréal at

03:36 PM EST Monday 31 January 2011.

...Snow Wednesday over Southwestern Québec...

A low pressure system developing over Texas will head up toward New

England mid-week. Snow should begin Tuesday afternoon or evening and

intensify Wednesday. Regions south of a line stretching from Montréal

to Sherbrooke could receive more than 10 centimetres of snow

Wednesday. This snow could be accompanied by blowing snow.

Uncertainty regarding this weather system's track will have an impact

on the amount of snow to be received.

This bulletin is only an advisory notice and the public is advised to

follow present and future warnings issued by Environment Canada.

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Check out my snowfall forecasts here... at WBNG.COM

Went with a blend of the euro and gfs for the most part. Seems to be the going trend this winter... I think we will see some sleet along/south of the HWY 17 corridor and that will cut down on snow totals. The threat for icing has gone down thankfully... gfs is a little wetter than the euro for the entire event. With some pacific (see H2O vapor loop) and gulf moisture getting into this thing I couldn't go completely with the euro #'s regarding the qpf, but did not want to go on the high end either. I figure snow ratios will be 12:1 tonight with part 1, and 10:1-12:1 for round two... although the further south one goes that will change as sleet mixes in.

By the time all is said and done some spots will have a new foot to foot and a half on the ground!

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Check out my snowfall forecasts here... at WBNG.COM

Went with a blend of the euro and gfs for the most part. Seems to be the going trend this winter... I think we will see some sleet along/south of the HWY 17 corridor and that will cut down on snow totals. The threat for icing has gone down thankfully... gfs is a little wetter than the euro for the entire event. With some pacific (see H2O vapor loop) and gulf moisture getting into this thing I couldn't go completely with the euro #'s regarding the qpf, but did not want to go on the high end either. I figure snow ratios will be 12:1 tonight with part 1, and 10:1-12:1 for round two... although the further south one goes that will change as sleet mixes in.

By the time all is said and done some spots will have a new foot to foot and a half on the ground!

This looks like a solid forecast.

I posted my initial thoughts for NYS earlier this Afternoon and ran the 13+ line thru the northern half of the S Tier. I can see the Sus River Valley receiving a little less (10-12?) due to lower elevation / mixing, but those amounts could be higher if the NAM / WRF end up being closest to actual temp's.

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ECW1.JPG

Things look to be right on track...The GFS and NAM are in Very good agreement on the track. These kind of warm air advection storms deepen very quickly and can dump a huge amount of snow...This one will feed off the moisture down south with a WACB. From what I see in the models right now I see no reason to change my earlier thoughts on snow amounts in post 539. I know this is not part of this sub forum. But something to keep and eye on will be the Severe weather outbreak tomorrow in Texas and Mississippi. I'm more interested in that than I am the snowstorm.

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This incoming slug of moisture... aka "Over-running Event" looks pretty impressive on the midwest radars ATTM. SPC noted in their recent MCD that convective banding could lead to enhanced snowfall rates above 1" / Hr.

post-538-0-81083200-1296526234.gif

00z NAM 24-Hour Over-running QPF targets the Srn Catskills with >.50"...

post-538-0-47680800-1296526209.gif

Based on the above, would not be surprised to see 7-9" reports out of the Srn Catskills region with this 1st event, just a thought as the wheels turn...

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