Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i defintely wouldnt bet against the seasonal patttern either OB. BUT the pattern itself changed significantly 3 weeks ago.....i guess thats the disturbing part as it still doesnt snow here. You have to wonder if there has been a subtle shift in the region's climate. I mean, with the notable exceptions of 2000/2001, 2007/2008 and the first half of 2008/2009, snowfall has been WAY down in Ottawa/Montreal for the past 11 years. Since 2002, the MA and Southern New England have been pounded by storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 By the way, EC is predicting light snow in Ottawa tomorrow. What's that from? I thought the clippers were missing us? they're not really missing us, they are just sheared out pieces of junk by the time they get to us....so that arent really going to be a big deal like the models were showing several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 suppose though the second clipper could deliver a decent light snowfall to MI/SW ontario and NYS if it can keep its act together long enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 suppose though the second clipper could deliver a decent light snowfall to MI/SW ontario and NYS if it can keep its act together long enough Well, my fingers are crossed for next week. Kind of glad the Sunday clipper won't hit us in a big way as i have a social gathering to attend. Interestingly, February 3-4th is the 39th anniversery of one of Ottawa' biggest storms - 42cm over two days. You never know.... By the way, it's looking really cold for the opening ceremonies of Winterlude on Friday, February 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Just to be positive...wouldn't it be something if this were February 2009 in reverse? That year models were showing a massive storm for us which turned into nothing two days before the event. Imagine if this time, it was the other way around, on almost the 2nd anniversery of that debacle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Just to be positive...wouldn't it be something if this were February 2009 in reverse? That year models were showing a massive storm for us which turned into nothing two days before the event. Imagine if this time, it was the other way around, on almost the 2nd anniversery of that debacle? its very interesting that you post that......because that feb 2009 debacle was the storm that sunk us into this pattern. it would be very ironic that a big storm, almost to the day 2 years later.....got us out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 its very interesting that you post that......because that feb 2009 debacle was the storm that sunk us into this pattern. it would be very ironic that a big storm, almost to the day 2 years later.....got us out of it. My thoughts exactly. Perhaps this time, models will swing in our favour two days before the event and give our MA friends a soaking rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the NAM extrapolated ( ) looks like it would be a hit, at least in terms of getting the storm up here. a nice trend out west there with the energy. kinda looks GEM like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I agree. Nice phasing about to happen out west.....heights a bit higher in east....bit of ridging in MW. We need the GFS and Euro too.......the JMA? the NAM extrapolated ( ) looks like it would be a hit, at least in terms of getting the storm up here. a nice trend out west there with the energy. kinda looks GEM like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the NAM extrapolated ( ) looks like it would be a hit, at least in terms of getting the storm up here. a nice trend out west there with the energy. kinda looks GEM like OL, if, and that's a big if, this storm hit us, could it be the classic scenario both you and I want? A Big storm followed by frigid Siberian air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 OL, if, and that's a big if, this storm hit us, could it be the classic scenario both you and I want? A Big storm followed by frigid Siberian air? yeah its defintely possible a big storm would certainly lend itself to pulling down some very cold air with that vortex lurking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I gather the latest GFS is looking a lot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the latest GFS took a significant trend towards handling the energy out west and partially phasing it. all we can do is look at trends at this time frame. defintely encouraging. as per current modeling.... but for places like YOW ART YUL MSS to be more impacted, we need an even stronger phase. places along I-90 dont need that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 0z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Here's my take on next weeks coastal. The models should get into some kind of agreement on how this storm will behave by Sunday. The odd man out is the CMC. But I think that will come into line tomorrow or Saturday. Right now, it looks like this will form along the gulf coast. But that will depend on what I think will be the key. That being the arctic cold front. I think the low will form in Louisiana or Mississippi near of just off the coast. This will happen when and if the Cold front moves into the Mid-Atlantic. If the front can push into Virginia someone in the NE will be in business. The EURO and GFS are looking good for potential big storm. But we have a long way to go. So if I was everybody I would just relax. We have to look at the overall pattern first; then worry about the Models. The models have not had a solution until 48-24 hours before any event this year; I don't think that is going to change. Just so you know, this is not a forecast; it's just my initial thought on what I think will happen....I'm sure my thoughts will change over the next few days. The Canadian is stll playing with the idea for a Mid-West storm...But, in my experience the ridge out west won't support this kind of set-up.The Euro had this solution yesterday; but it has since backed off from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 0z nogaps.. Also the euro went way NW, brings the low into the gl's..But it seems temps never get above freezing for the interior.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 looking at overnight modeling, the PV is just ridiculous and is gonna be a real problem for us up here. we are going to need something special from the models.........yes, we are still along ways out, but trends for the past 2 yrs argue that we will see very little from this storm....and with the PV in that position and so oppressive, there is definitely a good enough reason to see that continuing, at least right now. i think those along and south of I-90 would be fine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Here was the 0z ECM Ensemble Mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 HPC this Morning... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 656 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 VALID 12Z TUE FEB 01 2011 - 12Z FRI FEB 04 2011 THE MOST PROMINENT SFC SYSTEM FOR WHICH SHRTWV UNCERTAINTIES COME INTO PLAY IS FCST TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TUE ONWARD. TO VARYING DEGREES THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE MADE MEANINGFUL NWWD ADJUSTMENTS FROM FAIRLY SUPPRESSED TRACKS IN MULTIPLE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF TREND IS MORE EXTREME AS ITS PREVIOUS TWO RUNS WERE ON THE SERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE NEW 00Z RUN IS NOW ON THE NWRN SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE CANADIAN IS A FAST EXTREME TO BRING SWRN CONUS ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS AND IS ALSO IN THE NWRN PART OF THE SPREAD... WHILE THE UKMET TRACK IS NOT QUITE AS FAR NWWD AS ITS PREVIOUS RUN. OVERALL PREFER A GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN THAT FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF LATEST AND RECENT GUIDANCE GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY OF SHRTWV DETAILS AND SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CHANGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Now if we could just get that 2ndary to cut inland into Wrn NE... 12z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Southern Tier might get something decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 That's strange some of my Images don't show up in #46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 That's strange some of my Images don't show up in #46 There's a reason for that. When you posted the images, you directly 'hot-linked' the web URL to the image in your post, so the link remains active and will automatically update with each model run. The image that isn't showing up is the 12z Canadian image because the current run hasn't finished loading yet on E-wall. When I post model images, I usually save the model image as a .Png, then upload them into a post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 BGM: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPDATED AT 3 PM... IN THE BIG PICTURE...A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WILL PERSIST...WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGING OVER THE ERN PACIFIC/ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR CNTRL NY/NE PA...WITH FREQUENT NRN STREAM WAVE PASSAGES...AND BOUTS OF SHSN/FLURRIES. FROM SUN NIGHT-TUE...NO MAJOR STORMS ARE FORESEEN...WITH A CYCLONIC N/NW FLOW IN PLACE...AND A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHSN/FLURRIES. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF SRN STREAM ENERGY TRACKING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION FROM THE SERN CONUS...TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW. GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME RANGE...PLUS THE PROPENSITY FOR PCPN WITH COASTAL SYSTEMS TO STAY LARGELY S/E OF THE CWA SO FAR THIS WINTER...WE`LL SIMPLY SIDE WITH HPC AND INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 There's a reason for that. When you posted the images, you directly 'hot-linked' the web URL to the image in your post, so the link remains active and will automatically update with each model run. The image that isn't showing up is the 12z Canadian image because the current run hasn't finished loading yet on E-wall. When I post model images, I usually save the model image as a .Png, then upload them into a post. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 They have not updated this since yesterday's 12z model runs. Rest assured this tone will be changing given the recent model trends from 0z / 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z ECM good bit west, safe to say we are still a ways away from any sort of consensus amongst the global models. That said, based on what I've been able to decipher from the early / inferior graphics, the 12z CMC / UKmet tend to resemble a GFS-like solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 euro is the furthest north its still predominantly snow with mixing along the southern tier roughly precip is very uniform and all of NYS gets between 1.00-1.50 except for the the area north of ART along the international boder which is 0.75-1.00, including MSS. highest amounts in western new york ROC BUF, and also down along the WNE/NYS border regions ottawa and montreal are about 0.5-0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 euro is the furthest north its still predominantly snow with mixing along the southern tier roughly precip is very uniform and all of NYS gets between 1.00-1.50 except for the the area north of ART along the international boder which is 0.75-1.00, including MSS. highest amounts in western new york ROC BUF, and also down along the WNE/NYS border regions ottawa and montreal are about 0.5-0.6 Awesome, thanks for the inside info. Here is the 12z NOGAPS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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