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Feb 1-2 Upstate NY / North Country Major Winter Storm


CNYWxGuy

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You are such a tease :gun_bandana: I'll go out on a limb (2 storm total)..................17 GFL......18.5 IMBY.......................11 ALB (Due to pinger

I will see your 17 @ GFL and raise you 4 I will call it 22( I know know it's 21 but I like even numbers...easier to divide LOL).I am wondering if there is more to the cold trend on the models,and plus with the current snowpack,raising the snow ratio.I know I am wrong----- Hopeful------ but wrong--, nontheless but when Rick finds our GTG spot,I will buy you a beverage!

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Subzero i was trying to find your message, i saw it mixed in with my post :lol:

based on temp profiles, 6-10 inches would be a good range for ottawa

euro has been consistently the most agressive for our area.

Hi OL,

What would be your best guesstimate for snow totals in Montreal?

Cheers,

Scratch

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City of Toronto

10:47 AM EST Monday 31 January 2011

Winter storm watch for

City of Toronto issued

..Major winter snowstorm Tuesday night and Wednesday..

This is an alert to the potential development of dangerous winter weather conditions in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A major winter storm is developing over Texas and will track towards Southern Ontario Tuesday. The low is expected to track just south of the lower lakes Wednesday.

Light snow will begin in advance of this system tonight and Tuesday. However the heavier snow is forecast to begin Tuesday night and continue Wednesday morning. Potential widespread snowfall amounts of 20 to 30 cm are likely before the snow tapers off Wednesday afternoon.

In addition strong and gusty east winds will develop with the snow. This will cause local whiteout conditions in blowing snow. The east winds will also generate local snow squalls off Lake Ontario in advance of the main snow area which will give enhanced snow amounts to regions near the west end of Lake Ontario.

This will be the first Major winter storm of the season for the Toronto area, and the most significant storm of the season for many regions outside the traditional snow belts. The heavy snowfall and blowing snow will cause whiteout conditions making for extremely hazardous driving conditions. The public should be prepared to change plans accordingly to avoid travel during the storm. This storm has the potential to create near-paralyzing conditions.

Environment Canada continues to monitor this dangerous winter storm and will issue further watches and warnings as necessary.

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Alright, after careful consideration of the guidance, here is my 1st take on this upcoming event wrt accumulations. This is a comprehensive forecast that includes "both" events of this storm, and will be subject to 1 final re-vision later on if I deem it necessary. I gave more weight to the NAM wrt overall temp profiles and took a blend of QPF from a variety of models not limited to the GFS-NAM-ECM-GEFS. The spot forecasted snowfall amounts could be a few inches over-under in certain spots depending on which model does the best with QPF-Temp's, but regardless, I think a widespread 12-16" is in store for a large chunk of the region.

Still on the fence for the Southern Tier, but I think the northern fringe stands a good shot to break a foot with this event. While I do think some sleet will mix in and ratios could be slightly less than 10:1 at times, I'm going with 13.5" for BGM (NWS-Airport, not the city) as it lies in the northern half of the county at 1600+ feet ASL. Not to mention, I think the "first" event will kick-start us with a solid 5-7", so that would already achieve nearly 50% of the expected overall total.

If the NAM is correct, all bets are off, and considerable revision may be needed later on.

Any rate, this is my take for now...

post-538-0-86126800-1296503094.png

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WWUS43 KIND 311838

WSWIND

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

138 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINTER STORM TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL

PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A

VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE

SURFACE...HOWEVER VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE

SYSTEM ON SOUTHERLY WINDS...RESULTING IN WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL

RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA

THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR EAST

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE

OVER TO SNOW.

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This is not a forecast for say. But it is my initial thoughts on snowfall amounts. Anyway, the models always have problems with warm air advection. So the features aloft will be important. In round one overrunning looks very good so 3-8 inches is a good bet higher end of that will be south of the I-90 where banding is possible . the main event will beTuesday night and Wed. Round two looks to drop 10-16 inches across western, northern and eastern NY..with a few places getting as much as 24 inches...The Ice/sleet will be very close to the CD. But right now I think Albany will stay all or mostly snow. The models more or less support my idea that mixing will stay south of the Thruway. Therefore, I think the ice will be in the southern tier into New England in spots. The only problem I can see is the Shortwave that might try to move this more to the South and East. These amounts could change. so I might tweak them a bit later today. We will see.

I don't disagree in principle with much of this post. My Only concern is dry slotting behind the weakening primary on #2. I am also concerned that with flow aloft tending to go SW (and stacked). Whenever I see this develop the QP is a bit overdone. This flow will develop across CNY westward so I would tend to lean on the lower end of the snow amounts for these locations for now. Just my personal observations based on past storms where this occured. I'd rather add then subtract thus my conservatism. This same flow aloft will likely enhance snowfall across your neck of the woods east to the 'Dacks. Mixing issues aside you may also see some shadowing off the the S'rn Tier to south of I90 lessening QP too.

You are such a tease :gun_bandana: I'll go out on a limb (2 storm total)..................17 GFL......18.5 IMBY.......................11 ALB (Due to pingers)

I think along a and north of a MV-S VT line is going to get plastered on Wednesday. 10-15, 12-16 is what we're thinking at work but again considering it is the 3rd-4th period we'll probably hold off on amounts for Wednesday until 11pm tonight or I'll pull the trigger on them in the AM Tuesday. We do have a pretty good consensus amongst ourselves (at work) at the moment.

The ECM seems to consistently lie on the "dry" side of the guidance for this event. Personally, I think I would add up to another .25" to those totals (Atleast Along / S of I-90) to come more in line with the GFS / NAM.

How do temp's look, specifically 850s?

See my post to TG's post. EC is probably outlier on dry side but I would take with a grain of salt the heaviest model QPF too. Penn numbers for the storm total QPF are between 1.25-1.4 inches for Albany.

I will see your 17 @ GFL and raise you 4 I will call it 22( I know know it's 21 but I like even numbers...easier to divide LOL).I am wondering if there is more to the cold trend on the models,and plus with the current snowpack,raising the snow ratio.I know I am wrong----- Hopeful------ but wrong--, nontheless but when Rick finds our GTG spot,I will buy you a beverage!

See my second reply in this post.

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FEMA Issues Midwest Storm Warning

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- For the first time in recent memory, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has issued a warning about the approaching Midwest snowstorm.

FEMA said the storm could affect as many as 100 million Americans across the nation.

Kansas City Fire Chief Smokey Dyer said it's the first time in his 40 years in the fire service that he can recall such an advisory from federal officials. FEMA has been known to issue warnings similar to this for approaching hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Coast states.

FEMA Website | Ready.gov website

Normally, weather warnings and advisories are the responsibility of the National Weather Service.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

307 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO

5 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT

TUESDAY NIGHT TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO

LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS: NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE UPPER FINGER

LAKES...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU.

* HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

10 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND

TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH HEAVIER SNOW

WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO

WEDNESDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST

SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS: LIGHT EASTERLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EAST WINDS 5 TO 15

MPH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING TURNING TO THE

NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL DANGEROUS DUE TO HEAVY SNOW LATE TUESDAY

NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA

FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN

EMERGENCY.

PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY

CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT

[email protected].

&&

DJN/RRM

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I think the NAM is going to do better with this tight thermal ribbon....in terms of P-type than the less coarse GFS. I know conventional wisdom is sometimes that

p-type issues will move north of progged, but I think the PV in Labrador is the boss here and the NAM shows very well it's influence. IMO, if anything things may get supressed more than the GFS shows and be more like the NAM .

There is no way you can leave sleet totally out of the forecast along the corridor from about Cortland to Albany, but I think it is a minor player if it happens. You're bound to get some pockets of it even if a minor player. It is just way too cold from the ground up to about 825 mb for FZRA I think. That risk probably stays along and south of a BGM to Kingston line.

This still looks very good for you TG... I'll stick with my 3-6" for Ottawa because I doubt the northward extent of heavier qpf on GFS. GFS would probably imply 8"+ for Ottawa given ratios. But I'll be happy for them if it happens as long as it doesn't mean too many pingers for me. ;)

I agree on the 3-6 for Ottawa.

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Shocked to say the least...would lean towards the lower end for maxes I would think. Very odd from a normally conservative office...but they are good there...we'll see.

Wow, Albany 48-Hour Warning for 15-30". Guess we know which model they siding with... :scooter:

Binghamton a little more conservative with 11-18" across North Central NY tapering to 8-14" in Southern Tier.

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Shocked to say the least...would lean towards the lower end for maxes I would think. Very odd from a normally conservative office...but they are good there...we'll see.

18z nam gives ALB 2" precip all snow lol i would cut that by 1/3.. 12-15" seems about right for us.

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Ahhhhh hummuna hummuna hummuna :wacko: Pretty bullish...that's for sure. Time will tell. Albany has only had 18+ inches 15 times since records have been kept....I think about once every 9 years.......Generally if you forecast a huge storm in Albany you're usually wrong....hence Andy's wisdom. We'll see.:popcorn:

Wow, Albany 48-Hour Warning for 15-30". Guess we know which model they siding with... :scooter:

Binghamton a little more conservative with 11-18" across North Central NY tapering to 8-14" in Southern Tier.

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Finally..

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

350 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

NYZ019>021-010500-

/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0001.110202T0300Z-110203T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0001.110202T0300Z-110203T0300Z/

/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0006.110201T0600Z-110201T2000Z/

CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE

350 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST

TUESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 10 PM EST

WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM

TUESDAY TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO

BEEN ISSUED. THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS IN EFFECT

FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE WINTER STORM

WATCH WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

* TIMING...ADVISORY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON

TUESDAY. WARNING FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EVENING.

* HAZARDS...SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HEAVY SNOW MIXED WITH

SLEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. 8 TO 12

INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAUSING BLOWING

AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT

AND TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS LATE

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN VERY HEAVY SNOW ALONG

WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS

EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING

CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU

SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE

EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF

WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THE WEATHER

WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER

WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE

THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY

VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND

USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT

BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES

AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

The initial 4-6" sounds good, the 18z NAM had about 0.5" QPF here.

The 8-12" for part II might be a hair high...18z NAM brings the 0C line right up to my house for the brief time during...of course...the most intense period of precip. I'd go closer to 6-10".

In all, seems like a good 10-18" for all of WNY. Buffalo appears to miss out on the best of the first part, but makes that up with the 2nd.

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After a quick glance at the Nam, I can't help but believe that there may be some pings as far north as the I-90 corridor here in CNY. Those pings will be very short lived, but it could steal about 3-6" of snow from the storm total. Round 1 seems like it will do better than previously thought, so I guess everything evens out in the end. My early call for the CNY area is 12-18". This of course could be more or less depending upon the amount of pinging we hear on Wednesday morning. :snowman:

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:wub:

THE ODDS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN NEW

YORK DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE VERY HIGH. HOWEVER THE STORM IS

STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF US AND SLIGHT CHANGES IN

TRACK AND INTENSITY COULD HAVE BIG EFFECTS ON THE RESULTING SNOWFALL

FROM THE SYSTEM. ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE

SWATH OF SNOWFALL WILL OVERSPREAD WNY LATE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

MORNING. VERY STRONG DYNAMICS SUPPORT THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM

AS MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE THAT

CONTRIBUTES TO AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP LAYER OF VERTICAL MOTION. FOR

THAT REASON, WE ARE EVEN INTRODUCING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSNOW IN

THE WEDNESDAY 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME ACROSS OUR REGION.

SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND ARE

LIKELY TO BECOME HEAVIEST RIGHT BEFORE WEDNESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR

THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A SUGGESTION THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WRAP A BIT OF WARM AIR

INTO ITS CORE AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND WE HAVE REFLECTED THAT

POTENTIAL BY INTRODUCING A MIX OF SLEET FOR A PERIOD OF TIME NEAR

THE STATE LINE AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO, THE

TIMING OF ARRIVAL AND INTENSITY OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE ABOUT 3

HOURS LATER AND SNOWFALL WILL DROP OFF A BIT AS YOU GET NORTH OF

WATERTOWN.

THE SNOWFALL WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY STRONG NE WINDS (NOT TYPICAL FOR

OUR PART OF THE WORLD) GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH CREATING NEAR

WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FROM BEFORE

DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST

ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

IN ITS WAKE, WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAPAROUND SNOWFALL ON THE

BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND IN THE EAST

FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.

TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE IN THE

RANGE OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE

ALONG THE STATE LINE WHERE WE COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES LESS IF THE

SLEET MIXES IN AND NORTH OF WATERTOWN WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE AS

MUCH MOISTURE TO BEGIN WITH.

:snowing::mapsnow:

snow_tot_013111_1.jpg

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I don't disagree in principle with much of this post. My Only concern is dry slotting behind the weakening primary on #2. I am also concerned that with flow aloft tending to go SW (and stacked). Whenever I see this develop the QP is a bit overdone. This flow will develop across CNY westward so I would tend to lean on the lower end of the snow amounts for these locations for now. Just my personal observations based on past storms where this occured. I'd rather add then subtract thus my conservatism. This same flow aloft will likely enhance snowfall across your neck of the woods east to the 'Dacks. Mixing issues aside you may also see some shadowing off the the S'rn Tier to south of I90 lessening QP too.

I think along a and north of a MV-S VT line is going to get plastered on Wednesday. 10-15, 12-16 is what we're thinking at work but again considering it is the 3rd-4th period we'll probably hold off on amounts for Wednesday until 11pm tonight or I'll pull the trigger on them in the AM Tuesday. We do have a pretty good consensus amongst ourselves (at work) at the moment.

See my post to TG's post. EC is probably outlier on dry side but I would take with a grain of salt the heaviest model QPF too. Penn numbers for the storm total QPF are between 1.25-1.4 inches for Albany.

See my second reply in this post.

I agree with most of what you're saying....Those higher amounts I talk about will be west of the HV more or less in Lewis, Oswego, southern Jefferson , Herkimer, and Hamilton Counties.

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Hey I noticed that MSNBC actually showed the weaher warnings on the Ontario side of the border on one of their maps showing each type of warning. You could see the county outlines barely. That was cool...usually these US networks just outline the lower 48 and leave it blank to the north like wx stopped at customs. ;) Maybe one day they will have some kinda of integrated radar so you can pull up a national radar with canadian sites also included. That would be very cool with multi-lake bands.

City of Toronto

10:47 AM EST Monday 31 January 2011

Winter storm watch for

City of Toronto issued

..Major winter snowstorm Tuesday night and Wednesday..

This is an alert to the potential development of dangerous winter weather conditions in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

A major winter storm is developing over Texas and will track towards Southern Ontario Tuesday. The low is expected to track just south of the lower lakes Wednesday.

Light snow will begin in advance of this system tonight and Tuesday. However the heavier snow is forecast to begin Tuesday night and continue Wednesday morning. Potential widespread snowfall amounts of 20 to 30 cm are likely before the snow tapers off Wednesday afternoon.

In addition strong and gusty east winds will develop with the snow. This will cause local whiteout conditions in blowing snow. The east winds will also generate local snow squalls off Lake Ontario in advance of the main snow area which will give enhanced snow amounts to regions near the west end of Lake Ontario.

This will be the first Major winter storm of the season for the Toronto area, and the most significant storm of the season for many regions outside the traditional snow belts. The heavy snowfall and blowing snow will cause whiteout conditions making for extremely hazardous driving conditions. The public should be prepared to change plans accordingly to avoid travel during the storm. This storm has the potential to create near-paralyzing conditions.

Environment Canada continues to monitor this dangerous winter storm and will issue further watches and warnings as necessary.

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