Logan11 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'll stick with my 3-6" forecast for YOW to YUL. I figure the snow shield from the primary slowly moves north and sets up there ultimately...light to mod snows, but extended enough for that above amount. And obviously high ratios so .3" could be 5 or 6 inches. Also the GFS has been running higher than the NAM in the border areas. based on the overnight runs, my prelim expecations are still set at 1-2 inches here.....pending further data. waiting for the 12z data. defintely a storm for the I-90 corridor......to borrow a line from new england forums......as we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 based on the overnight runs, my prelim expecations are still set at 1-2 inches here.....pending further data. waiting for the 12z data. defintely a storm for the I-90 corridor......to borrow a line from new england forums......as we thought. That's quite low. I would think we have a chance of getting up to 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 for those of us on the edge, its really going to come down to not only the surface, but probably more importantly the dying h7 low. the brunt of the precip is going to pass south of us but as the primary occludes and dies, the remnant h7 low looks to swing some snow across the area. the longer it can keep itself together, the more snow we will see. the euro has been more agressive with this, which is why its been most agressive with qpf but it too is waffling away from its previous runs now as it senses the horribly positioned polar vortex. if you really want to get a scare, this morning SREF model brings only an inch or so to the area .....but they are not great at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the minister Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Starting to get veeeerrrryyy excited here in Spencer, NY....20 miles south of Ithaca. This could be the one! Hope the temps stay low enough for all snow of course. A big thank you to all the smart non-pros here and especially to the Mets who graciously give us there time/thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 FINALLY! Our first winter storm watch! Only took till January 31st. Let's do this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z nam bufkit is showing 31 inches total snowfall for Albany tuesday-thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TakeMeToManos Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Howdy from neighboring Newfield, Minister! Hoping for a a healthy foot... maybe a delay/snow day Tuesday and Wednesday to spend some quality time with my son! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'll stick with my 3-6" forecast for YOW to YUL. I figure the snow shield from the primary slowly moves north and sets up there ultimately...light to mod snows, but extended enough for that above amount. And obviously high ratios so .3" could be 5 or 6 inches. Also the GFS has been running higher than the NAM in the border areas. i think your call definitely could end up being a good one Logan. as of right now, im just not comfortable with that malpositioned PV.....we are going to need a small rally at 12z.....riding the fence always sucks. That's quite low. I would think we have a chance of getting up to 6". just a prelim call OB. a 25 mile shift would get us that much snow. problem right now is the trends are going in the opposite direction but the gradient is so tight, yeah we could def do better.....or worse. most confidence for higher amounts along and south of the border, and north shore of lake ontario. im waiting for the afternoon data. cyclogenesis is occurring right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 for those of us on the edge, its really going to come down to not only the surface, but probably more importantly the dying h7 low. the brunt of the precip is going to pass south of us but as the primary occludes and dies, the remnant h7 low looks to swing some snow across the area. the longer it can keep itself together, the more snow we will see. the euro has been more agressive with this, which is why its been most agressive with qpf but it too is waffling away from its previous runs now as it senses the horribly positioned polar vortex. if you really want to get a scare, this morning SREF model brings only an inch or so to the area .....but they are not great at this range. BUFKIT apparently shows 8-12" for Ottawa, which is likely way overdone. As I said, I'm going for (or at least hoping for) 6-8", more likely 6". Bear in mind it will be cold with this storm. I've noticed the cold air really retreats thhis upcoming weekend after initially looking bitterly cold. TWN and EC now calling for normal to slightly above normal temperatures. EC is a warm bias though. I think Al Gore and David Suzuki must have helped tweak the model they use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 BUFKIT apparently shows 8-12" for Ottawa, which is likely way overdone. As I said, I'm going for (or at least hoping for) 6-8", more likely 6". Bear in mind it will be cold with this storm. I've noticed the cold air really retreats thhis upcoming weekend after initially looking bitterly cold. TWN and EC now calling for normal to slightly above normal temperatures. EC is a warm bias though. I think Al Gore and David Suzuki must have helped tweak the model they use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LEK, Tornado, Wx4cast, You guys going to put out preliminary maps today. Getting excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LEK, Tornado, Wx4cast, You guys going to put out preliminary maps today. Getting excited! Same here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Great run of the GFS! It shifts the storm ever so slightly northwest. Higher QPF for eastern Ontario! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LEK, Tornado, Wx4cast, You guys going to put out preliminary maps today. Getting excited! Will put something together this afternoon. Busy here at work........Lots of inquiries from the higher ups about timing....told them Wed. morning commute looks to be quite impacted in the SYR area...I vaguely gave them a "could see over a foot on Wed." call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Also a bit warmer... the GFS keeps to it's pattern for this storm of wanting to bring the pingers north on the 0z and 12z runs. Looking forward to the 18z run so I can fool myself into thinking that the PL won't get to the CD. Great run of the GFS! It shifts the storm ever so slightly northwest. Higher QPF for eastern Ontario! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I thought it seemed to be a little slower this run as well. Still looks like solidly over 1" for all of us.. Maybe even over 1.25".. QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LEK, Tornado, Wx4cast, You guys going to put out preliminary maps today. Getting excited! I am going to break it into parts...already have prelim call for tonight-tomorrow's overrunning event. Since bulk of QP is with round 2 and that is basically in the 36 + hour part of the forecast I won't come out with numbers for it today. CAP may come out with something this evening or later tonight at the 11 pm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Andy, you were the only TV met (except for Fox...didn't see them) this morning to mention the possibility of PL/ZR around Albany on Wednesday. Looking at the 12z GFS, that was a wise call. It has the 850 low going NW of the CD with the 0C line dangerously close. It's too early IMO to declare this thing a total snow event for ALB. Would love for that to happen, but we still have time for the warm layer to come northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Great run of the GFS! It shifts the storm ever so slightly northwest. Higher QPF for eastern Ontario! GFS got the polar vortex cooperating a bit more. defintely a solid run. RGEM looks even better but its out of range. Ukie would be better than the NAM waiting on the euro. if the euro buys in the latest trends, ill start to get more excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is not a forecast for say. But it is my initial thoughts on snowfall amounts. Anyway, the models always have problems with warm air advection. So the features aloft will be important. In round one overrunning looks very good so 3-8 inches is a good bet higher end of that will be south of the I-90 where banding is possible . the main event will beTuesday night and Wed. Round two looks to drop 10-16 inches across western, northern and eastern NY..with a few places getting as much as 24 inches...The Ice/sleet will be very close to the CD. But right now I think Albany will stay all or mostly snow. The models more or less support my idea that mixing will stay south of the Thruway. Therefore, I think the ice will be in the southern tier into New England in spots. The only problem I can see is the Shortwave that might try to move this more to the South and East. These amounts could change. so I might tweak them a bit later today. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I am going to break it into parts...already have prelim call for tonight-tomorrow's overrunning event. Since bulk of QP is with round 2 and that is basically in the 36 + hour part of the forecast I won't come out with numbers for it today. CAP may come out with something this evening or later tonight at the 11 pm.... You are such a tease I'll go out on a limb (2 storm total)..................17 GFL......18.5 IMBY.......................11 ALB (Due to pingers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS got the polar vortex cooperating a bit more. defintely a solid run. RGEM looks even better but its out of range. Ukie would be better than the NAM waiting on the euro. if the euro buys in the latest trends, ill start to get more excited. Thinks are looking up slightly....pity we might not get a Winter Storm watch...have a 7 hour doctoral exam tomorrow....would be great to come back to WSW haha! I imagine the ratios here would be better than our brethren down south since we'll be a lot colder no? Maybe the Ottawa valley will work its magic and make some heavier bands stick around long enough!! Plus, I am sure if we got more than expected, our mayor won't call in the army (no disrespect intended to the good people of Toronto). And watch the weather network work get all excited like a bunch of school children...my god they live and breathe Toronto weather...utterly biased! On a side note, looks like we might end this month pretty much average for temperatures, snowfall and snow depth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think the NAM is going to do better with this tight thermal ribbon....in terms of P-type than the less coarse GFS. I know conventional wisdom is sometimes that p-type issues will move north of progged, but I think the PV in Labrador is the boss here and the NAM shows very well it's influence. IMO, if anything things may get supressed more than the GFS shows and be more like the NAM . There is no way you can leave sleet totally out of the forecast along the corridor from about Cortland to Albany, but I think it is a minor player if it happens. You're bound to get some pockets of it even if a minor player. It is just way too cold from the ground up to about 825 mb for FZRA I think. That risk probably stays along and south of a BGM to Kingston line. This still looks very good for you TG... I'll stick with my 3-6" for Ottawa because I doubt the northward extent of heavier qpf on GFS. GFS would probably imply 8"+ for Ottawa given ratios. But I'll be happy for them if it happens as long as it doesn't mean too many pingers for me. This is not a forecast for say. But it is my initial thoughts on snowfall amounts. Anyway, the models always have problems with warm air advection. So the features aloft will be important. In round one overrunning looks very good so 3-8 inches is a good bet higher end of that will be south of the I-90 where banding is possible . the main event will beTuesday night and Wed. Round two looks to drop 10-16 inches across western, northern and eastern NY..with a few places getting as much as 24 inches...The Ice/sleet will be very close to the CD. But right now I think Albany will stay all or mostly snow. The models more or less support my idea that mixing will stay south of the Thruway. Therefore, I think the ice will be in the southern tier into New England in spots. The only problem I can see is the Shortwave that might try to move this more to the South and East. These amounts could change. so I might tweak them a bit later today. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I generally never expect more than a foot. Too many things can go wrong. Obviously sleet could be an issue and the qpf could also be overdone. I hope not, but that has been a consistent theme this winter around here. So I'd say expect a foot cumulative (two events) from ALB to GFL and if more falls then all the better. You are such a tease I'll go out on a limb (2 storm total)..................17 GFL......18.5 IMBY.......................11 ALB (Due to pingers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 as far as qpf 12z euro line from ticonderoga - extending to NY/PA border just east of BGM.....all points S and E of this line 1.00-1.25 line from oswego - extending to NY/PA border east of Wellsville.......all points W of this line 1.00-1.25 all other in between 0.75 - 1.00.....seems to be showing the qpf minima secondary to occlusion and transfer ottawa 0.7 montreal 0.6-0.7 south of montreal towards VT border 0.75+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 as far as qpf 12z euro line from ticonderoga - extending to NY/PA border just east of BGM.....all points S and E of this line 1.00-1.25 Would that translate to 6-8 inches? line from oswego - extending to NY/PA border east of Wellsville.......all points W of this line 1.00-1.25 all other in between 0.75 - 1.00.....seems to be showing the qpf minima secondary to occlusion and transfer ottawa 0.7 montreal 0.6-0.7 south of montreal towards VT border 0.75+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 as far as qpf 12z euro The ECM seems to consistently lie on the "dry" side of the guidance for this event. Personally, I think I would add up to another .25" to those totals (Atleast Along / S of I-90) to come more in line with the GFS / NAM. How do temp's look, specifically 850s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The ECM seems to consistently lie on the "dry" side of the guidance for this event. Personally, I think I would add up to another .25" to those totals (Atleast Along / S of I-90) to come more in line with the GFS / NAM. How do temp's look, specifically 850s? i agree about the dry qpf this year for the euro....and i think you would certainly be fair to take a blend. its defintely ticked warmer than last night about 2-3C or so WNY stays below 0......towards central southern tier north of BGM and eastern NY lower HV towards CD, they go above zero......sleet would mix in but with omega and strengh of high pressure and polar vortex, i think during heavier periods it would be mostly snow.....thats my amateur interpretaton....i dont have MOS data best if you can get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Subzero i was trying to find your message, i saw it mixed in with my post based on temp profiles, 6-10 inches would be a good range for ottawa euro has been consistently the most agressive for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 i agree about the dry qpf this year for the euro....and i think you would certainly be fair to take a blend. its defintely ticked warmer than last night about 2-3C or so WNY stays below 0......towards central southern tier north of BGM and eastern NY lower HV towards CD, they go above zero......sleet would mix in but with omega and strengh of high pressure and polar vortex, i think during heavier periods it would be mostly snow.....thats my amateur interpretaton....i dont have MOS data best if you can get that. Thanks... I'll see if I can get some info on that. BTW, after seeing the 12z runs... the deed is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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