wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z nam is cold again..I dont knw what nyc surface temps are but they get alot of over running precip with 850mb temps above freezing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND POINTS SOUTH. ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 3 TO 8 INCHES...2 INCHES OR LESS ACCUMULATION TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 2 DAY STORM TOTALS OVER 1 FOOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SUGGESTING V WIND ANOMALIES SHOULDDOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE STORM...AGAIN...SUGGESTING SOME SLEET MIX TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT...AT LEAST IN CURRENT GUIDANCE. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL SEE REDUCTIONS IN 2 DAY SNOW TOTALS. CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AND SOME DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING COULD INFLUENCE THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED INTENSE PRECIPITATION BANDS. SO...BASED ON THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE QPF AND PROBABILITIES IN ENSEMBLES...PLACES THAT SEE MOSTLY SNOW SHOULD SEE WELL OVER A FOOT. SO...THE STORM SHOULD BE IN 2 MAIN PIECES...WITH PATCHY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN BETWEEN...WHICH IS WHY THE WINTER STORM WATCHES COVER 36 HOURS. THE TUESDAY ROUND WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS...AND SOME AREAS COULD FLIRT WITH WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BEGINS EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN HEAVY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z NAM holdin' steady although not quite as wet as the 0z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is starting to look real bad for places down south when it comes to ice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yup gfs joins ecm/nam..The ice is gonna be the story of the week..NYC never gets ice like this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z GFS colder again. Starting to see a pattern emerge... Off-hour GFS runs = Colder. If I see a consistent 12z NAM run and the 12z GFS repeat this 6z run, I think it's time for a post... Hour 60 is just mass carnage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Jackpot hr 60 from southern tier to WMV to syracuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z GFS QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z one of the best runs yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 How do you know this is going to be a widespread HIGH Impact Winter Storm across the region? When you see 62 / 62 counties in New York and 66 / 67 counties in Pennsylvania under a Winter Storm Watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 6z GFS Ensemble Mean just as cold and pretty near as wet as the OP... With that, see ya'll later on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 BUF went from 0.98 inch on the 18z run to 1.50 on the 0z/6z runs hmm,something tells me that will get much more precip than currently being shown on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 FOLLOWING THIS...THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGIONTUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING UPPER WAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AROUND THE DIGGING INTERMOUNTAIN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS...AND UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ADVERTISING A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING RIGHT THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES REGION...ALONG WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 65 TO 75 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...FORCING OUTSTANDING VERTICAL MOTION ALONG A TREMENDOUS BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN LAKES THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK. MODEL QPF ALMOST UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE MOST PART IS NOT IN QUESTION. AIR MASS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH JUST OFF TO THE NORTH SUPPLYING FRESH COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FOR AN ALL SNOW SETUP. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT TO BRING THE THREAT FOR A MIX WITH SLEET. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE WARMER GFS. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 8 TO 16 INCH RANGE WILL BE LIKELY...WITH THE BULLSEYE FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER TO WATERTOWN CORRIDOR. WE WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DIMINISHED AMOUNTS DUE TO THE SUGGESTION OF A SHARP DRY SLOT NOSING NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY NOT CUTTING AMOUNTS BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY RAPID MOVING SYSTEM...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE 06Z/09Z TO 15Z/18Z TIME FRAME AS A BEST GUESS...WHEN THE SNOWFALL COULD BE INTENSE WITH RATES EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH PER HOUR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. THIS TIMING WOULD RESULT IN EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY SYNOPTIC SNOWS ARE NOT THE NORM FOR WESTERN NEW YORK...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING FOR SURE TO SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WHICH WILL CAUSE A BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO. THE STEADY SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEADS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow, nice 6Z runs. I'm liking the colder trends on the NAM, GFS and Euro. Looking forward to 12Z runs. BTW, reading last nights posts and some of you guys don't ever seem to sleep! Impressive! True snow weenies....Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Round #1 Snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like we may freshen up our snowpack around here this week. I'm looking forward to the first call accumulation maps. Albany to Buffalo look to get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's really down to whether this is all snow or or we get some pingers mixed in occasionally. FZRA is pretty much out of the picture thankfully. 3F low here this morning. Wow, nice 6Z runs. I'm liking the colder trends on the NAM, GFS and Euro. Looking forward to 12Z runs. BTW, reading last nights posts and some of you guys don't ever seem to sleep! Impressive! True snow weenies....Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Nice map Andy. If the 12Z NAM is on to something, you may need to up your first round totals? This is gonna be a fun one Round #1 Snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks like a great storm for you Upstaters.......you certainly deserve it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12Z NAM says cold, all snow, BIG DOG run!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Nice map Andy. If the 12Z NAM is on to something, you may need to up your first round totals? This is gonna be a fun one Penn numbers are 1.25-1.40 inches off of 06z NAM for Albany (for the entire storm). They were 1/4-1/2 for round one... Reluctant to by into NAM QP amounts lock stock and barrel at this time. Personal experience indicates that when flow at 850 and 700 are stacked SW'ly QPF is often less than what the models are predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I understand.....let's see what the rest of the 12Z suite has to offer....we don't want to make people panick...as fun as that is sometimes. BTW, NAM total QPF (12Z) looks to be 1.75" for ALB....all snow. I'd pay $100 for that to come to fruition. Who do I pay? Penn numbers are 1.25-1.40 inches off of 06z NAM for Albany (for the entire storm). They were 1/4-1/2 for round one... Reluctant to by into NAM QP amounts lock stock and barrel at this time. Personal experience indicates that when flow at 850 and 700 are stacked SW'ly QPF is often less than what the models are predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I understand.....let's see what the rest of the 12Z suite has to offer....we don't want to make people panick...as fun as that is sometimes. BTW, NAM total QPF (12Z) looks to be 1.75" for ALB....all snow. I'd pay $100 for that to come to fruition. Who do I pay? Check payable to me is acceptable! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like 6-8" might be a good bet for me, which would satisfy me as at least we'd be a part of this thing. Brett Anderson of accuweather thinks 4-8" which is also a pretty safe bet I would think. Looks very similar to January 1999. 16-17" for Toronto with that storm, about 9-10" for Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This map will be our contract for QPF totals. I'll give you + or - 10% Check payable to me is acceptable! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 based on the overnight runs, my prelim expecations are still set at 1-2 inches here.....pending further data. waiting for the 12z data. defintely a storm for the I-90 corridor......to borrow a line from new england forums......as we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The old upper trough will be hanging back and call it an inverted trof connecting it, etc. But lighter snows seem likely to continue well into Wednesday night. Maybe add .25" from that stuff...icing on the cake. The models may not due that justice. Check payable to me is acceptable! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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