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Feb 1-2 Upstate NY / North Country Major Winter Storm


CNYWxGuy

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EVENING.

HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET FROM THE

SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND

POINTS SOUTH.

ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 3

TO 8 INCHES...2 INCHES OR LESS ACCUMULATION TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN

ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH 2 DAY STORM TOTALS OVER 1 FOOT.

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SUGGESTING V WIND ANOMALIES SHOULD

DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE STORM...AGAIN...SUGGESTING SOME SLEET

MIX TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT...AT LEAST IN CURRENT

GUIDANCE. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL

SEE REDUCTIONS IN 2 DAY SNOW TOTALS. CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AND

SOME DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING COULD INFLUENCE THE MORE NORTHERN

TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED

INTENSE PRECIPITATION BANDS. SO...BASED ON THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE

QPF AND PROBABILITIES IN ENSEMBLES...PLACES THAT SEE MOSTLY SNOW

SHOULD SEE WELL OVER A FOOT.

SO...THE STORM SHOULD BE IN 2 MAIN PIECES...WITH PATCHY LIGHT

PRECIPITATION IN BETWEEN...WHICH IS WHY THE WINTER STORM WATCHES

COVER 36 HOURS. THE TUESDAY ROUND WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE TRAVEL

PROBLEMS...AND SOME AREAS COULD FLIRT WITH WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE

THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BEGINS EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN HEAVY

PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT

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:wub:

FOLLOWING THIS...THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING UPPER WAVE DIGGING

THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL EJECT RAPIDLY

NORTHEAST AROUND THE DIGGING INTERMOUNTAIN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE

PLAINS...AND UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT

LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF DYNAMICS WITH THIS

SYSTEM. MODELS ADVERTISING A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET

COUPLING RIGHT THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES REGION...ALONG WITH AN

ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 65 TO 75 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...5

STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...FORCING OUTSTANDING VERTICAL

MOTION ALONG A TREMENDOUS BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM

THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN LAKES THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK.

MODEL QPF ALMOST UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH.

PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE MOST PART IS NOT IN QUESTION. AIR MASS

SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH JUST OFF TO THE NORTH

SUPPLYING FRESH COLD AIR SOUTHWARD FOR AN ALL SNOW SETUP. THE

EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE THERE MAY BE

ENOUGH OF A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT TO BRING THE THREAT FOR A MIX

WITH SLEET. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE WARMER GFS.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 8 TO 16 INCH RANGE WILL BE

LIKELY...WITH THE BULLSEYE FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE BUFFALO

TO ROCHESTER TO WATERTOWN CORRIDOR. WE WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE

POTENTIAL FOR DIMINISHED AMOUNTS DUE TO THE SUGGESTION OF A SHARP

DRY SLOT NOSING NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY NOT CUTTING

AMOUNTS BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY RAPID MOVING SYSTEM...BUT THERE

WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS...PROBABLY IN THE 06Z/09Z

TO 15Z/18Z TIME FRAME AS A BEST GUESS...WHEN THE SNOWFALL COULD

BE INTENSE WITH RATES EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH PER HOUR WITH THE

POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. THIS TIMING WOULD RESULT IN

EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR THE WEDNESDAY

MORNING COMMUTE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY SYNOPTIC SNOWS ARE NOT THE NORM

FOR WESTERN NEW YORK...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING FOR SURE TO SEE

HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND

WILL DEVELOP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WHICH WILL CAUSE A

BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO.

THE STEADY SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY

NIGHT HEADS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE

DEPARTING STORM WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF

LAKE ONTARIO.

:P

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It's really down to whether this is all snow or or we get some pingers mixed in occasionally. FZRA is pretty much out of the picture thankfully. 3F low here this morning.

Wow, nice 6Z runs. I'm liking the colder trends on the NAM, GFS and Euro. Looking forward to 12Z runs. BTW, reading last nights posts and some of you guys don't ever seem to sleep! Impressive! True snow weenies....Awesome!:weight_lift:

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Nice map Andy. If the 12Z NAM is on to something, you may need to up your first round totals? This is gonna be a fun one :guitar:

Penn numbers are 1.25-1.40 inches off of 06z NAM for Albany (for the entire storm). They were 1/4-1/2 for round one... Reluctant to by into NAM QP amounts lock stock and barrel at this time. Personal experience indicates that when flow at 850 and 700 are stacked SW'ly QPF is often less than what the models are predicting.

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I understand.....let's see what the rest of the 12Z suite has to offer....we don't want to make people panick...as fun as that is sometimes. BTW, NAM total QPF (12Z) looks to be 1.75" for ALB....all snow. I'd pay $100 for that to come to fruition. Who do I pay? :drunk:

Penn numbers are 1.25-1.40 inches off of 06z NAM for Albany (for the entire storm). They were 1/4-1/2 for round one... Reluctant to by into NAM QP amounts lock stock and barrel at this time. Personal experience indicates that when flow at 850 and 700 are stacked SW'ly QPF is often less than what the models are predicting.

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I understand.....let's see what the rest of the 12Z suite has to offer....we don't want to make people panick...as fun as that is sometimes. BTW, NAM total QPF (12Z) looks to be 1.75" for ALB....all snow. I'd pay $100 for that to come to fruition. Who do I pay? :drunk:

Check payable to me is acceptable! ;-)

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