swva Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm ok with it focusing more on the main event. I was never that amped up about the over-running anyway. 00z GFS looks very juicy and did tick north a bit with heavier QPF, but it will be adjusting north/south for the next 2 days. I feel good about 16"+. GFS really winds the storm up more this run too. If that continues, I would not be surprised to see the QPF increase even more on future runs. 0z GFS not as wet with the over-running as 0z NAM. Hard to tell when period of over-running ends as GFS seems to keep light precip over region right up until the main event. Quite a disparity between the NAM / GFS thermal profiles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 gfs is stronger and warmer , shouldn't that mean more Over running precip than it shows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Let's hope that short wave out west doesn't throw a monkey wrench into things and move this storm to far East or South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tuesday early afternoon is looking good for a few inches from overrunning. Then the main event moves in Tue night thru a big part of Wed. I think I will be able to post storm snowfall totals tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tuesday early afternoon is looking good for a few inches from overrunning. Then the main event moves in Tue night thru a big part of Wed. I think I will be able to post storm snowfall totals tomorrow. Same. Earlier I was thinking I would put out a preliminary following this 0z run, but the difference in thermal profiles thus far has given me a second thought. I will reserve a 1st call on accum's until 12z runs and will include Over-running / Main Event in 1 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ggem has 989 mb storm going into souther IL at hr 48, waiting for the rest to update.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Mixing issues for the southern tier and SEny, looks good north of there so far..Up to hr 58.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Same. Earlier I was thinking I would put out a preliminary following this 0z run, but the difference in thermal profiles thus far has given me a second thought. I will reserve a 1st call on accum's until 12z runs and will include Over-running / Main Event in 1 forecast. I agree....The models are very bad with these sorts of setups....most of the time they don't get things sorted out until 36-24 hours out. like I said earlier, I'm watching that short wave out west.. I don't like it's location...I think the models will pick up on it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I like it. I don't know that I'd call it a clown map except that there is no way that many areas will see it. But I still think WNY and CNY have a shot at those totals. NAM clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That sure is a purty map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm thinking Ottawa will end up with between 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That sure is a purty map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ok. The past few weeks I've been pretending that I didn't give a crap what happened, so I wouldn't wind up being disappointed. Now after 24 pages of this thread, and reading other local forecasts, I'm excited. Now watch us get 4" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good stuff for Rochester! http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kroc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 00z Euro came in colder and a bit further south. Its not as juicy as the GFS but the temperature profileis similar maybe a hair cooler than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 close call for kuca on the gfs http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kuca.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Per text soundings, the 0z GFS actually isn't near as bad as I was envisioning based on the NCEP graphics / 850 0c line. At each 6 hour interval, all layers remain below 0c at BGM with the exception of the 850 layer at H60 which is just barely above at 0.3C. Critical thicknesses are a little iffy... but with a moderate-to-heavy precip rate and 1200ft of elevation, I tend to think areas north of I-86 / Susquehanna River Valley are mostly if not all snow on the 0z GFS run, but it's very close. Said last night that the forecast for the S Tier is shaping up to be about as tough as one can be and could very well go right down to the wire in terms of all-snow / mixing. And here we are 24 hours later yet no closer to a definitive solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 35 User(s) are reading this topic 4 members, 31 guests, 0 anonymous users Wow lots of guests in here now lol we need as many members as we can get in this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 sign up people lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It sounds like the euro gives a big ice storm to parts of the MA like the NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 gfs clown map http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=ENX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 gfs clown map http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=ENX Whether or not these maps are representitive of the true model output, this graphic depicts the exact-type of gradient I was hitting on in my last post. I-86 / Susquehanna River Valley serve as a perfect demarcation line for a notable increase in accumulations across the S Tier. Sidenote, I've heard from a few red tags in other threads that the 0z ECM is indeed coming in colder and more 'nam-like'. Supposedly it pops a secondary LP somewhere near DCA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Map looks nice ..btw I-86 should be declared from BGM down to MSV pretty soon...lots of work going on with a massive bypass being built up along the mountain sides below Roscoe. Whether or not these maps are representitive of the true model output, this graphic depicts the exact-type of gradient I was hitting on in my last post. I-86 / Susquehanna River Valley serve as a perfect demarcation line for a significant increase in accumulations across the S Tier. Sidenote, I've heard from a few red tags in other threads that the 0z ECM is indeed coming in colder and more 'nam-like'. Supposedly it pops a secondary LP somewhere near DCA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Map looks nice ..btw I-86 should be declared from BGM down to MSV pretty soon...lots of work going on with a massive bypass being built up along the mountain sides below Roscoe. Yeah, been a long time coming. Still work to do out west though between Nichols and Elmira, or so there was a couple months ago when I was last out that way. There were still a few side roads / outlets to be re-routed, but they have been making good progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ahh ..I hadn't paid attention to that area on my trip out to Allegany County a few weeks ago. I have been traveling that road since I was a kid..first trip in 1974 I think! It was nice to finally have that bypass around the business stuff in Elmira/Big Flats area. When I first made that trip as a kid to see my aunt I-88 wasn't there yet and we had to take route 7 down to BGM, but 17 was already 4 lanes. Yeah, been a long time coming. Still work to do out west though between Nichols and Elmira, or so there was a couple months ago when I was last out that way. There were still a few side roads / outlets to be re-routed, but they have been making good progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I thought I would check in..... with the 0z Euro trending south and looking colder everyone is right about this being a nasty icestorm for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 As far as the Euro is concerned, I only see the 12 hr shifts on the free site EWall. And it looks in line w/ the incredible consensus of the models. This storm is written in stone thus far. I'm sure there will be changes, but thus far it is incredible in its consistency.... In rochester, pattern recognition suggests that if this thing moves from ohio across north central PA, We will see a tremendous amt of Lake Enhancement. One concern w/ pattern recognition is the warm nose that moves into Erie PA. It often just screams NE to Rochester. But thus far, this storm looks awesome for WNY and NCNY. Herkimer- thats U! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Per a pro-met / friend with MOS info on the Euro... It keeps all layers below 0c at BGM with the exception of H66 where 850 level warms to 1.3C, but corresponding critical thickness is below 540 at 538. At H60, with all levels below freezing the critical thickness is 542. All in all, definately some sleet potential under that scenario, but a colder solution than previous ECM runs and that is what is most important. Perhaps the NAM being a meso-model is allowing it to catch onto something despite it being outside its 'wheel-house' period. Hopefully the incoming 6z run maintains consistency... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 As far as the Euro is concerned, I only see the 12 hr shifts on the free site EWall. And it looks in line w/ the incredible consensus of the models. This storm is written in stone thus far. I'm sure there will be changes, but thus far it is incredible in its consistency.... In rochester, pattern recognition suggests that if this thing moves from ohio across north central PA, We will see a tremendous amt of Lake Enhancement. One concern w/ pattern recognition is the warm nose that moves into Erie PA. It often just screams NE to Rochester. But thus far, this storm looks awesome for WNY and NCNY. Herkimer- thats U! I have been confident about this storm for a while now..Even tho temp profiles are still up in the air somewhat ,the models have done a very good job with this system so far.. Its been 1 of the least stressful storms i have followed..And i cant complain about getting blitzed run after run I do feel bad about the potential disaster awaiting parts of the region.. Approaching 2 feet on the 0z gfs http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kuca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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