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Feb 1-2 Upstate NY / North Country Major Winter Storm

CNYWxGuy

By CNYWxGuy,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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ayuud

ayuud

Posted
Posted
THE STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED

TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT EAST INTO

THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING

OFF TO LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET HEADS TO

THE EAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD COULD RANGE FROM 3

TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN STORM CENTER WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE

TENNESSEE VALLEY AND REACH THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER BY WEDNESDAY

MORNING. A CLASSIC COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WILL GENERATE

ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...WHILE A

POTENT LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ADVECTS

DEEP MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE

SURFACE.

THE STEADIEST SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY BEFORE DAYBREAK

WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND NAM THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LAYER OF

WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL SURGE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO POSSIBLY

RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE

SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT ICE

ACCUMULATIONS COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHERN TIER IF A CHANGEOVER TO

SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TAKES PLACE QUICKLY. FARTHER TO THE NORTH IN THE

COLDER AIR...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO CROSS WESTERN PA

IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE DURING THE

AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK WOULD PLACE A GOOD PART OF OUR CWA IN THE

FAVORABLE DEFORMATION ZONE WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE MODELS

AGREE THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT MAY STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE

SOUTHERN TIER/UPPER GENESEE VALLEY FOR A MIX OF FROZEN PCPN THROUGH

WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE

AFTERNOON SHOULD CHANGE ANY MIXED PCPN OVER TO SNOW.

AN AVERAGE OF MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW

COULD FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER AIR NORTH

OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND

SLEET WOULD KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER

AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY...BUT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS

COULD EXCEED ONE HALF INCH IF THE LATEST TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND

QPF FORECASTS COME TO FRUITION.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND ICING...BRISK

NORTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM WILL HAVE AN IMPACT

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE STEADY SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY

NIGHT HEADS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE

DEPARTING STORM WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF

LAKE ONTARIO.

WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL/ICING EVENT

IS RATHER HIGH DUE TO STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS...IT IS STILL A BIT FAR

OUT FOR A WATCH...THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN A HEAVILY WORDED HWO.-- End Changed Discussion --

NWS BUF :snowman:

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

thats exactly my attitude....i think in this forum we all know what snow looks like and we can all look out the window and see snow....the attitude is very different in here.

as for my reservations, i mentioned yesterday that by 12z today (passed now), i would be confident for NYS. you can see now there is no chance this storm misses them now barring total model failure.

for us, since we are on the fence (literally!) between 10 inches and 1-2 inches, there is no way we should not be reserved until 12z tomorrow.

we have all seen the model shift, and all it would take is a 50 mile SE shift and we are looking at flurries. with a PV hanging out in our backyards, that very doable.....and overall, 50 miles is nothing at 3.5 days lead time.

as much as the euro has been doing its best to get us into the good stuff the last several runs, its had a NW bias with qpf this season, which we should be wary of.

but yeah, i do look at trends, and the trends are good, but new trends such as a more rapid occlusion of the storm in the MW are appearing. how will that play out for qpf?

im neither optimistic or pessimistic at this time.

by 12z tomorrow, at our northern lattitudes we should have a better idea of potential impacts.

Just be careful on miss vs. expectations vs. reality

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted
SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY

MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 285K SURFACE CAUSING

WIDESPREAD ASCENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH

QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 BUT WITH SNOW TO

LIQUID RATIOS INITIALLY ABOVE CLIMO AND LIKELY NEAR 15 TO

1...GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND 2-4 OR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH 00Z

WED...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE

TRACK...INTENSITY AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS

CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH FORECAST QPF VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5

INCHES FROM THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GGEM AND

ALSO THE SREF/GEFS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PINPOINTING PTYPES

ASSOCIATED WITH VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH WILL HAVE A GREAT

INFLUENCE ON HOW MUCH SNOW VS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS

AS OF NOW IT APPEARS TEMP PROFILES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY

SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD...WITH A

CHANCE OF SOME SLEET BRIEFLY MIXING IN ON WEDNESDAY. FROM THE

ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN VT THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF AN

ALL SNOW EVENT. SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IS WHERE THE GREATEST

VARIABILITY IN PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO AN

ELEVATED WARM NOSE INFILTRATING INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...EASTERN

CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THIS IS WHERE THERE IS

LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

GFS comes in with a solid 1.3" of qpf at SYR...and a quick glance at the profiles indicate all snow....this is a total for the overrunning and storm.

It seems that no matter how far west the models want to take the system, the critical thicknesses a just rock steady in staying near or to the south of the NY/PA border near BGM....00z runs should hammer the nails in further on this one....

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

GFS comes in with a solid 1.3" of qpf at SYR...and a quick glance at the profiles indicate all snow....this is a total for the overrunning and storm.

It seems that no matter how far west the models want to take the system, the critical thicknesses a just rock steady in staying near or to the south of the NY/PA border near BGM....00z runs should hammer the nails in further on this one....

I think the Steeelrs have a better shot at being rock solid. ;-)

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

It will be in the MW because of the huge arctic high coming SE out of Montana

Near Chicago and areas south of L. Michigan, they will be in a prime location for deformation snows, enhanced by nice delta-T's and a well aligned NNE flow off L. Michigan...ie LES. Chicago will reach blizzard conditions, IMO (or just south of there). Parts of MI also could experience near blizzard conditions, but further east, the occlusion and weakening of the primary, will quickly diminish any wind field to below anything resembling blizzard conditions...say for a few gusts during moderate snowfall.

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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

I think the Steeelrs have a better shot at being rock solid. ;-)

Give me the output of the firs half of the Jets game and the second half of the Raven's game, and I'd be confident in that statement....however....we have those little flys in the ointment.....called the first half of B'more and the second half of the Jets.....:arrowhead:

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Avid6eek

Avid6eek

Posted
Posted

This will be the first system of our new winter weather pattern. The parade of storms that the SNE crew cashed in on is over. Ohio valley runners/SWFE look to be hanging around for the foreseable future IMHO. My only concern is going from the fringe of supressed storms, to the potential icy mess that may come with the new pattern.

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Gorizer

Gorizer

Posted
Posted

They are rare but having a cut and dry system would be oh so nice. I hate having to worry about snow accums prior to transitions, or will we see banding and where, etc. etc. Then there's TG lamenting the fact that LES isn't huge this year, especially since she thought it would be. Oh, well the vagaries of wx and wx forecasting.

This sub-forum really needs to have a GTG. I nominate Rick/Logan to be the organizer to set one up at a mutually "agreeable" location.

Just let us lurkers know where so we can sit at the next table and listen in. :lol:

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CNYWxGuy

CNYWxGuy

Posted
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Posted

May need to start a new thread for next weekend...

This was the first time I started a thread between Eastern and American. You see... Andy and TG had been the only ones starting storm threads this winter before this one, and I dont think it was any coincidence that every storm ended up S / E or the only part of Upstate to reel in the significant snows were the CD folks. I started this thread because I felt we needed to change things up in order to get a significant synoptic snow event across the remainder of Upstate.

When I started this thread, the models were all over the place (See original post). Now with less than a few days left before kickoff, this upcoming event has the potential to give atleast a portion of W / C NY a legit curb-stomping. Hmmmmmm... :lmao:

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

This week is kinda crazy for me, but maybe over the weekend I can start to formulate something. :) It does seem like a cool idea. Since this group extends all the way west to BUF and north into Canada it might need to be some place fairly centrally located which probably means west of the CD. I have a few ideas...gonna do some searches on the net....

They are rare but having a cut and dry system would be oh so nice. I hate having to worry about snow accums prior to transitions, or will we see banding and where, etc. etc. Then there's TG lamenting the fact that LES isn't huge this year, especially since she thought it would be. Oh, well the vagaries of wx and wx forecasting.

This sub-forum really needs to have a GTG. I nominate Rick/Logan to be the organizer to set one up at a mutually "agreeable" location.

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted

Interesting how both the 18Z NAM and GFS decided to go colder with limited data on an off hour run. Hopefully the 0Z runs will beef up the warm advection precip with the 1st batch and shift it north a bit, but keep the warm air with the main show just to our south. I want it all baby!!!

I like the trends on the 18z models but i dont want it to far south lol Im kinda tired of hearing that word even tho its helping us atm..

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