StotaRattler Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I am still going to be cautious regarding this event because the track still bothers me. I don't trust storms that track into Ohio to stay all snow for the CNY area. I apologize for being a Debbie-Downer, but we have been burned too many times to let our guard down at this point. That 0 line at 850 keeps inching farther and farther to the north, and WAA is often underestimated on these model runs. 5 more runs until Tuesday's 0z...lots can (and will) happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yea its been on and off light snow here also, NAM prints out .9" for today..I will happily take my inch ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I am still going to be cautious regarding this event because the track still bothers me. I don't trust storms that track into Ohio to stay all snow for the CNY area. I apologize for being a Debbie-Downer, but we have been burned too many times to let our guard down at this point. That 0 line at 850 keeps inching farther and farther to the north, and WAA is often underestimated on these model runs. 5 more runs until Tuesday's 0z...lots can (and will) happen. yeh something is fishy about this upcoming storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I am still going to be cautious regarding this event because the track still bothers me. I don't trust storms that track into Ohio to stay all snow for the CNY area. I apologize for being a Debbie-Downer, but we have been burned too many times to let our guard down at this point. That 0 line at 850 keeps inching farther and farther to the north, and WAA is often underestimated on these model runs. 5 more runs until Tuesday's 0z...lots can (and will) happen. Interesting you should say that given the Canadian Weather Network is thinking 4-8" for Toronto, and next to nothing for Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is the Euro still showing the second storm next weekend? What about the bitter cold on Friday? EC says no bitter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is the Euro still showing the second storm next weekend? What about the bitter cold on Friday? EC says no bitter cold. the 2nd storm is off the coast and the cold air retreats. by day 10, another storm will make a run at our region, and it looks as though cold air would follow behind that one. thats way out there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Gfs is still to far east for next weekend, the dgex is closer to the coast both are warm for the coast..Gfs does show good potential with the system around the 9th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm not sure what is causing this today - but steady light snow has left a half inch of fluff here. 20F outside. Here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z GGEM came way north youch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've noticed a few things about strong warm advection snow events for this area. 1) Precip tends to start about 3 hours before the models forecast 2) Precip intentisty is often under modelled 3) If it looks like there might be a pesky warm nose, there will be a pesky warm nose. If sleet is forecast, the pings usually start several hours before forecast. 4) Half the time the sleet is forecast to stay to my south, it gets us. 5) Half the time only sleet is forecast, we get some freezing rain. 6) Warm advection precip seems to advance 50 miles further north than forecast I'm not saying that this will happen, just being cautiously optimisitic. For the CD to stay all snow, I'm looking for a slight south trend. I'm not worried about missing the heavy precip to the south. I think that the Glens Falls area into the DAKs are gonna get smoked!!!! I am still going to be cautious regarding this event because the track still bothers me. I don't trust storms that track into Ohio to stay all snow for the CNY area. I apologize for being a Debbie-Downer, but we have been burned too many times to let our guard down at this point. That 0 line at 850 keeps inching farther and farther to the north, and WAA is often underestimated on these model runs. 5 more runs until Tuesday's 0z...lots can (and will) happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 lol ggem goes through NYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GGEM has made the crazy uncle (UKMET) look normal lately. It's seems to be having a major bipolar episode lately......although every once in a while the crazy ones can be right........but I'm not worried. 12z GGEM came way north youch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 the feb 21 storm in 93 also had a PV present very closeby but the PV was better located towards hudsons bay as the storm approached. unfortunatelly as has been the case the past 2 years, this PV ends up off northern quebec directly suppressing the flow, just as there has always seemed to be something there (ie block) the past couple years. ....the PV is a de facto block similar. all we can do is hope the models are overplaying its strength, but usually thats not the case....OR hope the storm in the MW gets stronger and gets the PV involved more, which is possible. looking at the upper air pattern, it would be a miracle if this turned into a snowstorm for us.....but i guess after 2+ years of a snow drought, we already knew that. OL. the 12z GFS was gold. Ottawa getting into the 10-12" zone, as is the area just south of montreal island. Apparently, the Canadian is shifting north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've noticed a few things about strong warm advection snow events for this area. 1) Precip tends to start about 3 hours before the models forecast 2) Precip intentisty is often under modelled 3) If it looks like there might be a pesky warm nose, there will be a pesky warm nose. If sleet is forecast, the pings usually start several hours before forecast. 4) Half the time the sleet is forecast to stay to my south, it gets us. 5) Half the time only sleet is forecast, we get some freezing rain. 6) Warm advection precip seems to advance 50 miles further north than forecast I'm not saying that this will happen, just being cautiously optimisitic. For the CD to stay all snow, I'm looking for a slight south trend. I'm not worried about missing the heavy precip to the south. I think that the Glens Falls area into the DAKs are gonna get smoked!!!! yeah thats dead on if we don't see a south trend soon we're in trouble. I can't recall a storm that tracked into northeast ohio and gave I-90 all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well It looks like Northern NY and our friends in Southern Ontario will finally cash in; It is still early so the track and intensity of the storm can change. but I'm getting psyched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ggem goes from southern outlier to northern outlier in 1 run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You can't allow yourself to get jolted into a bi-polar state over every model run. 12Z runs took a north jog, 18Z may jog back.... The pattern still says this squeezes under us IMO.... PL is always possible at some point, but I think it's mosty snow in the MV and CD. Probably GFL does jackpot given no PL threat and the best ratios.... Tuesday has shifted south now...NYC (like they need it) could get 4-6" only to see a change to rain there for the main event. Lucky me...have to appear in court in Queens, NYC on Tuesday. Hopefully I have a window to get home that evening. Maybe they'll cancel..... ggem goes from southern outlier to northern outlier in 1 run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well It looks like Northern NY and our friends in Southern Ontario will finally cash in; It is still early so the track and intensity of the storm can change. but I'm getting psyched. 12z GFS as well as the new Canadian are great for Ottawa and Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'll see how strong I can make my IP repellent for the entire area. My location has been pretty lucky in the past several SWFE type setups, staying mostly/all snow. Even the V-DAY storm in 2007 was all snow except for a brief mix with sleet that didn't last more than a couple minutes. Of course I say that and even out here I'll probably need a hard hat on Wed . This is an impressive storm running up against fairly impressive cold air...we'll see who wins I've noticed a few things about strong warm advection snow events for this area. 1) Precip tends to start about 3 hours before the models forecast 2) Precip intentisty is often under modelled 3) If it looks like there might be a pesky warm nose, there will be a pesky warm nose. If sleet is forecast, the pings usually start several hours before forecast. 4) Half the time the sleet is forecast to stay to my south, it gets us. 5) Half the time only sleet is forecast, we get some freezing rain. 6) Warm advection precip seems to advance 50 miles further north than forecast I'm not saying that this will happen, just being cautiously optimisitic. For the CD to stay all snow, I'm looking for a slight south trend. I'm not worried about missing the heavy precip to the south. I think that the Glens Falls area into the DAKs are gonna get smoked!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OL. the 12z GFS was gold. Ottawa getting into the 10-12" zone, as is the area just south of montreal island. Apparently, the Canadian is shifting north. yes it does look better, but we are seeing this waffling overall. with todays 12z models so far, we are seeing what happens if that midwest low really takes advantage of the extreme temp gradient setting up in the plains.......we need the low to rapidly strengthen and be able to push the confluence from the PV in quebec up and out of the way by raising heights rapidly on the east coast ahead of the low. again, this would be a Herculean effort considering the placement and strength of the PV.....but we are looking at what very well looks to be a historic storm in the midwest. incredible setup really, from a meteorogical standpoint, very explosive. CHI-DET-TOR- and some side of the I-90 corridor look to get smoked at this time. BUT i caution, this can easily trend the other way if the PV fights back. at the same time, i think the low can get even stronger looking at that temp gradient caused by that ridiculous 1055 high pressure coming down into the plains. that alone suggests a historic event. for our region, we are defintely going to see how the models keep trending, we are too far out consideting how close we are riding the fence....but yeah, todays 12z trends have been solid.....keep an eye on the low, id like to see its several mbs deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Interesting you should say that given the Canadian Weather Network is thinking 4-8" for Toronto, and next to nothing for Ottawa. Give them time to digest the data. They will change it soon I am sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 One thing to note...nwp has the system weakening / falling apart as it moves northeast...this could serve to limit the northward extent of WAA, along with strong HP to the north in ONT/QUE. There is an indication of coastal redevelopment but it doesn't appear robust, more of a shearing out process. Anyone south of the 850 track is out of their minds if they think they would stay all snow. Subject to future changes...I'd have to think that transition gets up to Lake Ontario in WNY/CNY though probably after most of the precip has fallen w/ main system. NNY & ONT look to be safest bet to stay all snow and maximize snow accumulation throughout the system but will miss initial slug. There's nothing i've seen to get excited about for next weekend, looks like some sort of system well to the south and east though not major. this is a good point and there are signals on the models to suggest that much of our subforum could get caught in the middle of a quick transfer under the confluence, say between london ontario and the western side of the HV . it may limit WAA and it may also limit amounts. it will have to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 yes it does look better, but we are seeing this waffling overall. with todays 12z models so far, we are seeing what happens if that midwest low really takes advantage of the extreme temp gradient setting up in the plains.......we need the low to rapidly strengthen and be able to push the confluence from the PV in quebec up and out of the way by raising heights rapidly on the east coast ahead of the low. again, this would be a Herculean effort considering the placement and strength of the PV.....but we are looking at what very well looks to be a historic storm in the midwest. incredible setup really, from a meteorogical standpoint, very explosive. CHI-DET-TOR- and some side of the I-90 corridor look to get smoked at this time. BUT i caution, this can easily trend the other way if the PV fights back. at the same time, i think the low can get even stronger looking at that temp gradient caused by that ridiculous 1055 high pressure coming down into the plains. that alone suggests a historic event. for our region, we are defintely going to see how the models keep trending, we are too far out consideting how close we are riding the fence....but yeah, todays 12z trends have been solid.....keep an eye on the low, id like to see its several mbs deeper. OL, is bitter cold still forecast to move in behind the storm? Unless I'm reading it wrong, the GFS seems to think no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z Euro ticked the 0C line north to I-90.. maybe even a few miles north of I-90. precipitation is very similar to the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Certainly looks very sleety for the Thruway corridor here in ENY...north of Saratoga looks great right now. Even so, several inches of snow should happen prior to the changeover. And, still a couple days to iron out the temp profiles. 12z Euro ticked the 0C line north to I-90.. maybe even a few miles north of I-90. precipitation is very similar to the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Certainly looks very sleety for the Thruway corridor here in ENY...north of Saratoga looks great right now. Even so, several inches of snow should happen prior to the changeover. And, still a couple days to iron out the temp profiles. At least the Euro brings back the day 6 coastal storm. it looks real nice for all of us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This does not include the new eurorun PREFERENCE: BEFORE 00Z WED...EQUAL BLEND GFS/00Z ECMWF AFTER 00Z WED...2/3 GFS TO 1/3 NAM THE NAM SHOWS SUSPICIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL AMPLIFICATION CROSSING CALIFORNIA TODAY WHICH APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. ADDITIONALLY... ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND COMPARISONS WITH OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NAM INITIALIZES THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH ABOUT 50 NM WEST OF ITS ACTUAL POSITION WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO ITS SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS BEFORE EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE GFS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS SHOWS GOOD INITIALIZATION AND CONTINUITY WITH ITS PRIOR RUN...AND AGREES WITH THE FASTER/WEAKER 00Z ECMWF THROUGH 00Z WED BEFORE BECOMING A LITTLE SLOWER/DEEPER THAN THE ECMWF. GIVEN THAT ALL 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER/DEEPER...ALBEIT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...THIS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR DISCOUNTING THE FASTER ECMWF LATER IN THE PERIOD. THUS...RECOMMEND BLENDING THE GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGH 00Z WED TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LINGERING MODEL UNCERTAINTY. THEN AFTER 00Z WED...RECOMMEND THE GFS WHILE GIVING SOME CREDIT TO THE NAM DUE TO ITS AGREEMENT AND 12Z MODEL TRENDS. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Geeze....so my worries about IP issues up to SYR are unwarranted with this map!!! Go Henry!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Starting to look at 12z data in earnest... Initial first impressions is that potential for over-forecasting snowfall for "both" events is high. Northern extent of snow will be a challenge as will possible mix especially with round #2. Also I am concerned that mix may get farther north then some are thinking...i.e., up to GFL. Will have some thoughts later after I digest ALL 12z data and ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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