Feb 1-2 Upstate NY / North Country Major Winter Storm

[CNYWxGuy]

6z GFS appears to keep the snow / mix line south of the border for the duration based on the 6-hour intervals, but will need to look at the soundings to be sure.

Said it earlier, but I can see this being a game of "inches" right down to gametime as far as the S Tier is concerned for an all-snow event versus going over to a mix at some point. It really is that close.

[wolfie09]

Boy did the NAM cool down... The warmest i get at the 850mb level is -6 and most of the time its around -8 to-9c..

[wolfie09]

Looks like the gfs is a little further west with that storm on the weekend..Huge SE ridge building around 174..

[CNYWxGuy]

Just had a look on the 3-Hour Interval / Zoomed in look to the 6z GFS on E-wall. The 850 0c line remains south of the border for the entire duration, however, the 540 thickness line briefly runs north of the E Srn Tier during H78-81, then collapses back to the south after H81.

Depending on precip-rates, I could see the Susquehanna River Valley / Triple Cities experiencing a few sleet pellets for a brief time under that scenario, but largely all-snow, although flake production might not be the greatest...

[Logan11]

I think I was right yesterday when I said that we were seeing the northern most solutions at that point. The polar vortex in Northern Quebec is gonna make sure this gets squished under us. I feel fairly confident right now that the area from about Cortland east to Cooperstown east to Albany is pretty much all snow now. Prospects also seem to have improved south of there for more snow versus mix.

Just had a look on the 3-Hour Interval / Zoomed in look to the 6z GFS on E-wall. The 850 0c line remains south of the border for the entire duration, however, the 540 thickness line briefly runs north of the E Srn Tier during H78-81, then collapses back to the south after H81.

Depending on precip-rates, I could see the Susquehanna River Valley / Triple Cities experiencing a few sleet pellets for a brief time under that scenario, but largely all-snow, although flake production might not be the greatest...

[roady]

This could be a cruel joke after this winter.

[quote

]Tuesday Night: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

But after the past few winters everything is on the table

[FEFD17]

Wonder if Andy is staying with his first call.I was listening to the national news cast this morning. I was only half awake trying to think of a reason to goto work, didn't come up with one and went anyways and I heard this storm coming in from California will be going across the country and by Wednesday and places like NY may be looking at 24". I bolted up out of bed looked at the map and thought no way.But thanks for making me goto work....... Moron......LOL..... It has been very lightly snowing here this morning and the roads are covered now.

[Wx4cast]

Wonder if Andy is staying with his first call.I was listening to the national news cast this morning. I was only half awake trying to think of a reason to goto work, didn't come up with one and went anyways and I heard this storm coming in from California will be going across the country and by Wednesday and places like NY may be looking at 24". I bolted up out of bed looked at the map and thought no way.But thanks for making me goto work....... Moron......LOL..... It has been very lightly snowing here this morning and the roads are covered now.

My first call (the picture) was tongue in cheek just meant give the whiners a charge. As Logan posted it was cryptic? Was I thinking we would get screwed positively (a storm) or a miss.

As I also posted yesterday (and mentioned last week to Tornado Girl in a PM) There will be two shots to the event. More later.

[Organizing Low]

Use the big old black and white maps. They are very easy to read. I don't understad why they put out such small color maps.

stupid Canadian government going cheap on the met community, i agree with you Rick!

[Organizing Low]

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

these maps are very very very good, one of the better ones the Goverment has made public.

specifically best for use when inside 48 hours since they use the hi-res RGEM ptype scheme......which is excellent......if you are riding the ptype fence, make sure you check this out.....suggest to bookmark it.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Environment Canada predicting a mix of sun and cloud for Ottawa on Wednesday.

Highs up to 20F next Friday.

[WNYLakeEffect]

As fascinating an inch of ice may sound, I really hope the 12z NAM is wrong. I'll take rain over ice.

WNY doesn't do ice. Snow, yes, ice, no.

[Organizing Low]

I think I was right yesterday when I said that we were seeing the northern most solutions at that point. The polar vortex in Northern Quebec is gonna make sure this gets squished under us. I feel fairly confident right now that the area from about Cortland east to Cooperstown east to Albany is pretty much all snow now. Prospects also seem to have improved south of there for more snow versus mix.

strongly agree Logan

i just dont see how this low is going to get that far north into the PV (which i hate btw, always have).

it will take a Herculean effort by a low to push north, and right now i don't see enough of an intensification in that low to get it done.....having said that, this low does have potential to outrun model intensity IMO given the strength of the BZ.

the euro was ultra agressive in qpf for my area last night.....color me skeptical.

right now, up here, i wouldnt call for anything more than 1-2 inches at this point, given the polar vortex and the confluence....with rapidly increasing amounts just to our south.....maybe some mixing in the southernmost parts of NYS, but i expect the cold will be underdone and we see it tick back S.

if the low does maximize its potential and strengthens on future runs or the confluence lessens, it can be bumped up, but given that i can see this being a total miss up here too, i wouldnt call for anything more than a light snowfall at this time IMBY.

[wolfie09]

This is just tilll wed morn, not the whole storm..

[Ottawa Blizzard]

strongly agree Logan

i just dont see how this low is going to get that far north into the PV (which i hate btw, always have).

it will take a Herculean effort by a low to push north, and right now i don't see enough of an intensification in that low to get it done.....having said that, this low does have potential to outrun model intensity IMO given the strength of the BZ.

the euro was ultra agressive in qpf for my area last night.....color me skeptical.

right now, up here, i wouldnt call for anything more than 1-2 inches at this point, given the polar vortex and the confluence....with rapidly increasing amounts just to our south.....maybe some mixing in the southernmost parts of NYS, but i expect the cold will be underdone and we see it tick back S.

if the low does maximize its potential and strengthens on future runs or the confluence lessens, it can be bumped up, but given that i can see this being a total miss up here too, i wouldnt call for anything more than a light snowfall at this time IMBY.

I lurk and sometimes post in the accuweather forums and many of the models they are showing (NAM, GFS, Euro) are hinting at an absolutely epic storm for the Toronto area - between 16-20"!! The models seem to show between 6-8" for Ottawa.

I think this could potentially be like January 1999. That storm around new Years gave Ottawa about 10", while Toronto got 16".

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Environment Canada predicting a mix of sun and cloud for Ottawa on Wednesday.

Highs up to 20F next Friday.

I have to say that for a country of such weather extremes, we in Canada are poorly served by our weather agencies (Environment Canada and The Weather Network). I mean, TWN is calling for 2-4" in Toronto, when they could potentially get 12-15". Unreal.

[ENYsnow]

This is just tilll wed morn, not the whole storm..

that looks like low end warning criteria snow

[Organizing Low]

I lurk and sometimes post in the accuweather forums and many of the models they are showing (NAM, GFS, Euro) are hinting at an absolutely epic storm for the Toronto area - between 16-20"!! The models seem to show between 6-8" for Ottawa.

I think this could potentially be like January 1999. That storm around new Years gave Ottawa about 10", while Toronto got 16".

yeah CHI-DET-TOR corridor looks to get smoked.

i know you've mentioned and i remember some very cold storms in the course of Ottawa's recent history especially in the 90s.....do you recall the dates for those? id like to look at the upper air pattern, i think it would be helpful in seeeing what we could get out of this if we compare it to the past analogs.

theres definitely potential OB, but we are so on the fence and that PV is so crushing, that there is no way you could predict anything with confidence for our region this far out. areas like toronto should be pretty high confidence of >6 inches at this time, with potential for a severe storm.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

yeah CHI-DET-TOR corridor looks to get smoked.

i know you've mentioned and i remember some very cold storms in the course of Ottawa's recent history especially in the 90s.....do you recall the dates for those? id like to look at the upper air pattern, i think it would be helpful in seeeing what we could get out of this if we compare it to the past analogs.

theres definitely potential OB, but we are so on the fence and that PV is so crushing, that there is no way you could predict anything with confidence for our region this far out. areas like toronto should be pretty high confidence of >6 inches at this time, with potential for a severe storm.

February 21-22,1993 was quite cold - it looks like we got 8-10" from that.

January 30,1966 was quite cold: http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/hourlydata_e.html?timeframe=1&Prov=XX&StationID=4337&Year=1966&Month=1&Day=30 38.6 cm from that storm.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

On January 23, 1966 Toronto got almost 40cm of snow while Ottawa got 21cm.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

By the way OL, it's still snowing in Ottawa - has been for the past 24-36 hours. We now have over 50cm for the month, and a 36cm snowpack.

[Organizing Low]

By the way OL, it's still snowing in Ottawa - has been for the past 24-36 hours. We now have over 50cm for the month, and a 36cm snowpack.

[Organizing Low]

February 21-22,1993 was quite cold - it looks like we got 8-10" from that.

January 30,1966 was quite cold: http://www.climate.w...&Month=1&Day=30 38.6 cm from that storm.

the feb 21 storm in 93 also had a PV present very closeby but the PV was better located towards hudsons bay as the storm approached. unfortunatelly as has been the case the past 2 years, this PV ends up off northern quebec directly suppressing the flow, just as there has always seemed to be something there (ie block) the past couple years. ....the PV is a de facto block similar. all we can do is hope the models are overplaying its strength, but usually thats not the case....OR hope the storm in the MW gets stronger and gets the PV involved more, which is possible.

looking at the upper air pattern, it would be a miracle if this turned into a snowstorm for us.....but i guess after 2+ years of a snow drought, we already knew that.

[wolfie09]

Juicy

[ayuud]

I'M DREAMING

[Ottawa Blizzard]

the feb 21 storm in 93 also had a PV present very closeby but the PV was better located towards hudsons bay as the storm approached. unfortunatelly as has been the case the past 2 years, this PV ends up off northern quebec directly suppressing the flow, just as there has always seemed to be something there (ie block) the past couple years. ....the PV is a de facto block similar. all we can do is hope the models are overplaying its strength, but usually thats not the case....OR hope the storm in the MW gets stronger and gets the PV involved more, which is possible.

looking at the upper air pattern, it would be a miracle if this turned into a snowstorm for us.....but i guess after 2+ years of a snow drought, we already knew that.

I suppose in the worst case scenario it could be like December 11,1944. Toronto got 54cm and Ottawa got next to nothing.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I suppose in the worst case scenario it could be like December 11,1944. Toronto got 54cm and Ottawa got next to nothing.

Correection. Ottawa saw 8" with that storm.

[Logan11]

Probably Toronto is ground zero for southern Ontario.... But I do think the old primary will get up into eastern OH/nw PA before giving way and the area of snow with that will creep north (as the main body moves east) so that eventually it lays as far north as Ottawa for awhile and snows itself out. Meanwhile a new low forms and becomes the focus of heavy snow from ENY to central NE, but the old stuff is good for something like 3-6 inches in Ottawa, especially when factoring in ratios. I see it as being someout analogous to what happened on January 11-12 in the I-90 corridor,,,,only shifted north.

But we'll see. If a southward trend starts it could take areas north of NY out of the game...but that's my current thought.

I have to say that for a country of such weather extremes, we in Canada are poorly served by our weather agencies (Environment Canada and The Weather Network). I mean, TWN is calling for 2-4" in Toronto, when they could potentially get 12-15". Unreal.

[Logan11]

I'm not sure what is causing this today - but steady light snow has left a half inch of fluff here. 20F outside.

[WNYLakeEffect]

I suppose in the worst case scenario it could be like December 11,1944. Toronto got 54cm and Ottawa got next to nothing.

IDK about that one.

2:30am 12/10- 1017mb low in N. central Arkansas

2:30am 12/11- Up to west central Illinois (still just under 1017mb). 2ndary forming off the coast of Georgia (1012mb)

2:30am 12/12- Primary is dead, 2ndary is <984mb over Philly and moves up to Maine. Blizzard conditions in WNY and Ontario. with widespread 1 to 2 foot amounts.