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Feb 1-2 Upstate NY / North Country Major Winter Storm


CNYWxGuy

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Yeah I just had a look at the run on E-wall. Between the O-R and main event combined, it looks like everyone is over an inch of QPF and all snow, with highest amounts along / S of I-90. Biggest winner looks like the CD with over 1.50".

where is CD? Just curious. Where is colonie. Maybe these are downstate places I'm not familiar with. I'm in Rochester and this thing is more hopefull than anything this winter. Synoptic wise that is. We are at like 75 inches for the season. But it is all LES, 2-10 at a time- all low impact stuff for us. I want synoptic!

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where is CD? Just curious. Where is colonie. Maybe these are downstate places I'm not familiar with. I'm in Rochester and this thing is more hopefull than anything this winter. Synoptic wise that is. We are at like 75 inches for the season. But it is all LES, 2-10 at a time- all low impact stuff for us. I want synoptic!

Capital district and colonie is right next to albany

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where is CD? Just curious. Where is colonie. Maybe these are downstate places I'm not familiar with. I'm in Rochester and this thing is more hopefull than anything this winter. Synoptic wise that is. We are at like 75 inches for the season. But it is all LES, 2-10 at a time- all low impact stuff for us. I want synoptic!

First, welcome to our Upstate discussion board!

The regulars here often refer to the Capital District of NY as the "C.D." Colonie is pretty much a northern suberb of Albany.

Believe me when I say all of us north / west of Albany share your frustration as far as lack of synoptic snowfall goes for the Upstate region, especially our friends near the International Border that reside outside the lake snow belts. Barring an epic model collapse, I think many... if not all of us are going to walk away with our pockets lined after this event.

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GGEM ftw lol.. from the new england thread

:thumbsup::snowman: I'm to :hug: this model til it dies haha

and... AND... the 850 0c line remains south of the N Tier of PA with the CMC, which is generally a good demarcation of the snow / mix line.

I find it interesting that the CMC is one of the colder solutions yet it's thermal profiles are often regarded as being suspect and often too warm. I tend to think it's more southern track is the primary culprit behind this versus catching onto a colder solution overall, but something to keep in the back of the mind going forward.

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The over running precip will have good ratios, so the more precip we get from that the better..The primary storm will prob be like 10-1 ratios....Albany proper's climo ratios are 13-1 and the NWS calling for higher then normal..

AND COUPLED

WITH ABOVE NORMAL SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS MAY RESULT IN SOME MARGINAL

ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS

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and... AND... the 850 0c line remains south of the N Tier of PA with the CMC, which is generally a good demarcation of the snow / mix line.

I find it interesting that the CMC is one of the colder solutions yet it's thermal profiles are often regarded as being suspect and often too warm. I tend to think it's more southern track is the primary culprit behind this versus catching onto a colder solution overall, but something to keep in the back of the mind going forward.

maybe the CMC and NOGAPS are onto something :lol: usually we can just look at the Euro but after the way it handled the last storm I wouldn't be so trusting. I could see it coming down to the final 12-18 hours before we have a confident idea of where the snow/sleet line sets up lol.

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PREFERENCE: 18Z-00Z GEFS MEANS... OR AN AVERAGE OF

GFS/NAM/UKMET/ECMWF SFC LOW TRACKS WITH DEPTH SIMILAR TO THE

GFS/ECMWF

BY TUE-WED THE NAM BECOMES THE MOST EXTREME AMONG MODEL/ENSEMBLE

MEAN SOLNS WITH THE SEWD AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LVL TROF. THE NAM

ALSO LEANS TO THE DEEP EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH THE CORE OF THE

MID LVL SYSTEM DURING TUE-WED. CONSISTENT WITH ITS TRAITS ALOFT

THE NAM HAS ONE OF THE DEEPEST SFC LOW SOLNS FROM THE LOWER MS

VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE GFS SOLN ALSO HAS SOME QUESTION

MARKS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER EJECTION OF THE MID LVL SHRTWV VERSUS

CONSENSUS MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. UPSTREAM PREFERENCE THAT

LEANS AWAY FROM THE GFS ADDS FURTHER DOUBT TO THE PRECISE GFS

SOLN. THE 12Z ECMWF COMPARES A LITTLE BETTER TO THE FULL RANGE OF

GUIDANCE ALOFT BUT THE SFC LOW LEANS TO THE NWRN/NWRN SIDE OF THE

ENVELOPE AROUND F72-78 LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF

HAS ADJUSTED FAVORABLY TOWARD CONSENSUS. THE UKMET SFC LOW IS

DEEPEST AMONG NON-NAM GUIDANCE BUT THE TRACK IS WITHIN THE PRIMARY

GUIDANCE CLUSTERING. LIKELY DUE TO A DEEPER WRN SOLN THE 12Z-00Z

CMC RUNS WEAKEN THE EJECTING SHRTWV MORE THAN OTHER SOLNS TO YIELD

AN OUTLIER SERN SFC LOW TRACK. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN INCLUDED... THE

GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ON AVERAGE PROVIDE A GOOD INTERMEDIATE

SOLN AND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SO THEIR

FCSTS ARE GIVEN FIRST PREFERENCE. AN AVERAGE OF THE

GFS/NAM/UKMET/ECMWF SFC LOW TRACKS WITH DEPTH SIMILAR TO THE

GFS/ECMWF WOULD ALSO PROVIDE AN ACCEPTABLE FCST

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

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Because the Aviation section is the 1st to get updated, you can often get an inside sneak-peek at the updated forecast before the updated ZFP's hit the street and the remaining sections of the AFD are updated.

Although the BGM update isn't exactly encouraging, I think it's a safe call from this distance...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

425 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011

TUESDAY NIGHT/WED...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW. MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER NE PA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

1239 AM EST SUN JAN 30 2011

TUESDAY NIGHT/WED...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW. MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER NE PA AND SOUTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KBGM/KELM/KITH.

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Nws says they will call for a wintry mix from i-90 south yet there forecast has me all snow..

.A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MOST OF THE COUNTRY DURING

THE MID WEEK PERIOD...

OUR POTENT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WAVE WAS COMING ASHORE

ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DOWNSTREAM

IMPACTS ARE INCREASING MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND

THE GULF OF MEXICO PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING.

MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO DIVE

SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. ALL OF THESE FEATURES SPELL AN

INCREASE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE

CONUS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS. THE FIRST PIECE OF THIS

STORM...IN THE FORM OF STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM

ADVECTION...ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED ENCASE THE REGION

TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL

PROFILES...WHILE THEY DO WARM...REMAIN BELOW 0C TO REDUCE THE

POTENTIAL FOR ANY MIX. THE GARCIA TECHNIQUE WITH SPECIFIC

HUMIDITIES OF 2-3 G/KG ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON THE THETA

SURFACE...SUGGEST A 4-6 INCH SNOWFALL BY SUNSET TUESDAY. SURE SOME

MESOSCALE IMPACTS SUCH AS UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE

CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND THE BERKS MAY BE SLIGHT HIGHER

WITH A BIT LOWER VALUES ACROSS THE DACKS /AS LEAST PER WHERE THE

BAROCLINIC ZONE EVENTUALLY SETS UP/. THIS WOULD LEAD TOWARD AT

LEAST AN ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

A QUICK RESPITE OCCURS TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN SHOW

ARRIVES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CALIFORNIA WAVE WILL SPAWN A

NEW SURFACE LOW LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS

SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DOWNSTREAM...IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE

TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF

THE CONUS WITH PRECIP QUICKLY RETURNING BACK TO THE CWA. MODEL

TRACK GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE

DEGREE TO WHERE THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE

IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO FORECASTING THE THERMAL PROFILES AND

ASSOCIATED PRECIP TYPES. GEFS PLUME MEMBERS FOR ALBANY NY ALL

AGREE THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT...WITH SEVERAL PTYPE

MEMBERS SHOWING RAIN MAKING IT THIS FAR NORTH. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN

OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WHICH PLACES A

WINTRY MIXTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. UTILIZING PARTIAL

THICKNESS TECHNIQUE FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND THE LATEST 00Z

ECMWF...WE WILL PLACE THE WINTRY MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING

RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A

SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FURTHER NORTH...MAINLY HEAVY SNOW WITH A HIGHER WATER CONTENT.

QPF FROM THE VARIOUS SOURCES AND HPC ALL SUGGEST BETWEEN 1-2

INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO

HIGHLIGHT AND STRONGLY WORD THIS WINTER EVENT WITHIN THE HWO. AS

CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR

HEADLINES TO APPEAR SOON...STAY TUNED

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Nws says they will call for a wintry mix from i-90 south yet there forecast has me all snow..

I tend to think they are placing more emphasis on the eastern end of I-90 in the ALY cwa. Using that demarcation can be a little more misleading in their area because I-90 arcs northwest-southeast in E NY as opposed to more west-east in W / C NY.

Truth be told, I would be 'shocked' if NC NY sees anything other than snow with this system.

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