CNYWxGuy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Alright, in effort to change our luck, I am starting my 1st ever thread between my tenure on the Eastern & American forums... Here is a glimpse of what we have on the current run of models for this time frame... Euro... GFS... Canadian... JMA... NOGAPS... Discuss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 here are my thoughts from central forum: admitteldy i do like the teleconnections which i know are only a part of the puzzle......but at least when we get up to my lattitude, they are a major part of the puzzle. the door is open if something wants to cooperate....however with the huge PV over hudsons bay, we will need some phasing to bring it north and the pac ridge is eating up energy for breakfast..... more likely, as of right now looking at models and teleconnections, looks to be a classic overrunner which when taking into consideration end of jan climo in the eastern lakes, favors the SW ontario/OV/NYS along and south of I-90 and SNE/CNE corridor. alternatively, we end up with a useless scenario which passes harmlessly off the SE or southern coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 HPC is siding with the GFS mainly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 i personally would side with the GFS earlier runs of the euro (and current runs of the NAM/GEM/Ukie) are bringing high aplitude waves across the pac West ridge and phasing them strongly, which hasnt been the trend this year. the euro has already shifted towards the GFS idea with less of a phase, and i expect the rest of the models to follow. could i be wrong? sure......but based on early developments, thats the direction we are heading.....and it fits in with seasonal trends. GFS has been stellar this year, rarely if ever spitting out false alarms......unlike the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 ecm ens mean http://www.ecmwf.int...l!2011012712!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Unfortunately, I think the rich get richer on this one, but still time. Definitely worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Unfortunately, I think the rich get richer on this one, but still time. Definitely worth watching. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 All I can say is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Pretty much every model brings in some kind of precip to the area except the ecm, so im def not giving up..Not to mention the euro ens are NW of the op.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 BGM... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 256 PM EST THU JAN 27 2011 LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF SRN STREAM ENERGY TRACKING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION FROM THE SERN CONUS...TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW. GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME RANGE...PLUS THE PROPENSITY FOR PCPN WITH COASTAL SYSTEMS TO STAY LARGELY S/E OF THE CWA SO FAR THIS WINTER...WE`LL SIMPLY SIDE WITH HPC AND INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 ecm ens are over TN while the op is over GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Unfortunately, I think the rich get richer on this one, but still time. Definitely worth watching. You mean NYC metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Speaking of Ens being n/w of the OP, there are several 12z GFS members that are looking fairly delectable... Member N002... Member P002... Member P001... Member C000... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 EC has snow forecast for Ottawa both Tuesday and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 KALB THIS MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAYAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BEGINS TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS PATTERN MANY TIMES THUS FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. ONCE AGAIN...THE EARLY LOOK AT THIS STORM SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...AS HAVE MANY OF THE PREVIOUS STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Hmmm, Albany NWSFO and HPC bought into a more NW solution early on with the last storm and it turned out to bite them in the patuuuuty. Maybe they're getting trigger shy for upstate now and they've just decided to give into this seasons climo. When you give up is when you often get pleasantly surprised. I'm not giving up on this one yet. KALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 18z DGEX... meh, nother okay hit. The biggest thing I'm looking for at this point is a more northern track on the models. Once we lock that in, any QPF or potential mixing issues come next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 From the MW thread Per Harry, the op Euro is the farthest south out of all 51 members. Ensembles are a bit farther north and bring good qpf into Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 18z GFS remains S / E. Thinking back on the winter to this point, I can't remember the last time the GFS model showed even a moderate to heavy hit across Upstate in the short-to-medium range. Even the ECM and CMC had heavy hitting solutions with this past non-event in the T84-144 range, even though they turned out to be wild fantasies. I forget what a good snowstorm for Upstate even looks like on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I'm blending the gfs and euro models from the past several days to come up with an avg track that takes it just to our southeast. So far this winter the GFS is initially too far southeast, while the euro seems to have been too far west... The extreme western model vs the extreme eastern model is more than 500mi. apart! Not much else one can do but wait till things settle out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 here are my thoughts from central forum: admitteldy i do like the teleconnections which i know are only a part of the puzzle......but at least when we get up to my lattitude, they are a major part of the puzzle. the door is open if something wants to cooperate....however with the huge PV over hudsons bay, we will need some phasing to bring it north and the pac ridge is eating up energy for breakfast..... more likely, as of right now looking at models and teleconnections, looks to be a classic overrunner which when taking into consideration end of jan climo in the eastern lakes, favors the SW ontario/OV/NYS along and south of I-90 and SNE/CNE corridor. alternatively, we end up with a useless scenario which passes harmlessly off the SE or southern coast. For the most part I agree, the tuesday/ Wednesday event looks to be another significant storm for the Mid-Atlantic and New England. This is just a first blush reaction....I haven't looked at the data too much...I will sit down and look over the data tonight and tomorrow and try to pin things down better....I guess we can always hope....But right now I think this one will have the same basic track the last one took. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 EC has snow forecast for Ottawa both Tuesday and Wednesday. the 12z GEM was a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i though this was an important post here baroclinic_instability, on 27 January 2011 - 03:58 PM, said:2 big "IF's" here--one the cyclone and how it eventually develops. If you look at the spread on the GEFS spaghetti plot at 48 hours--it is unusually large as a result with the placement of the cyclone off the coast. Right now it is a ripple on the Pacific Jet--so a lot has to happen there. Second question is how the first wave/occlusion interacts with the northern stream at 36-42 hours and how much of a "phase" occurs there. The GFS has consistently been more bullish and "initiates" CAA and development of the northern vortex/trough into the plains much earlier than other guidance. All these "interactions" and developments occur within the next 36-48 hours--I would like to believe things will be straightened out quite a bit by the 0Z run of the 29th--about 36 hours from now. We should have a much clearer picture of who gets what. I do think it is becoming obvious regions across the south will certainly be seeing some action though. defintely allows me to be more optimistic for the next 24-48 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 For the most part I agree, the tuesday/ Wednesday event looks to be another significant storm for the Mid-Atlantic and New England. This is just a first blush reaction....I haven't looked at the data too much...I will sit down and look over the data tonight and tomorrow and try to pin things down better....I guess we can always hope....But right now I think this one will have the same basic track the last one took. which is absolutely insane when you think about it. The places that are getting hammered by snow this year are places which by and large don't know how to handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 For the most part I agree, the tuesday/ Wednesday event looks to be another significant storm for the Mid-Atlantic and New England. This is just a first blush reaction....I haven't looked at the data too much...I will sit down and look over the data tonight and tomorrow and try to pin things down better....I guess we can always hope....But right now I think this one will have the same basic track the last one took. granted these are early thoughts but.... i think this one has the opportunity to take more of a cross-continental type approach. i tihnk a pure east coast storm is lower odds this time around, but that doesnt mean it still wont end up south of US....ie those north of KSYR. i think the OV and I-90 corridor should get something out of this, unless its a total junk piece of energy which is possible. but in ART and YOW and YUL, we are going to need some help to get this up here with that big PV sitting on top of hudsons bay....ie help meaning some degree of phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 and of course a full phase out west could easily result in a cutter......as baro mentioned, this should be known in the next 48 hours if we are going to see a full-on cutter......teleconnections support it....seasonal trends + recent trends with the PAC ridge do not......an intermediary type cutter would a compromise solution in such a case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the 12z GEM was a big hit I'm not buying it though. I think we're heading for the snow futility record in Ottawa to be honest. I'm not a betting person, but if I were I would bet that this storm next week doesn't give us a single flake. Seriously. Why bet against the pattern? The pattern is basically locked in and has been since the Fall. How many times this year have we seen EC predict "snow" which then gets changed to "periods of snow" then "60% of flurries"? I notice Evan Myers on acuweather seems to think this next storm will take a track very similar to the one that just passed, not that he's the know all and the end all by any stretch of the imagination. It's a shame because it could have been a classic. Big storm followed by Siberian air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm not buying it though. I think we're heading for the snow futility record in Ottawa to be honest. I'm not a betting person, but if I were I would bet that this storm next week doesn't give us a single flake. Seriously. Why bet against the pattern? The pattern is basically locked in and has been since the Fall. How many times this year have we seen EC predict "snow" which then gets changed to "periods of snow" then "60% of flurries"? I notice Evan Myers on acuweather seems to think this next storm will take a track very similar to the one that just passed, not that he's the know all and the end all by any stretch of the imagination. It's a shame because it could have been a classic. Big storm followed by Siberian air. i defintely wouldnt bet against the seasonal patttern either OB. BUT the pattern itself changed significantly 3 weeks ago.....i guess thats the disturbing part as it still doesnt snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 By the way, EC is predicting light snow in Ottawa tomorrow. What's that from? I thought the clippers were missing us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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