ayuud Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 temps already down to 10F,it's going to be a cold night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Have we really been screwed by winter? Obviously winter can't answer that, but maybe statistics can....and since I am a bit bored... As EC doesn't provide standard deviations, a bit of maths gives the mean seasonal snowfall for Ottawa from 1971/72 to 2000/01 as 232.8 cms, with a standard deviation of 49.67. We can assume that seasonal snowfall follows the good old Gaussian (normal) distribution. So far this season, we have had a grand total of 120.8 cms of snow. For arguments sake, lets assume it won't snow anymore! The null hypothesis: This seasons snowfall is nothing exceptional when compared to the usual Ottawa winters (i.e. we haven't really been screwed). A simple hypothesis test shows that, if this season gets 120.8 cms of snow, 1.2% of all possible winter seasons would have less snowfall than this season! With the usual significance level of 0.05, the null hypothesis gets rejected......winter did screw us! But, taking a more conservative level of 0.01, it seems winter did not screw us...this has been bad, but not too bad. However, sticking to the level of 0.05, how much more snow would we for this winter to not be too exceptional? If the seasonal snowfall total is.... 130.8 :- 2.02% of winters would have less 140.8 :- 3.22% of winters would have less 150.8 :- 4.95% of winters would have less 160.8 :- 7.49% of winters would have less So...30 cms more snow, and this winter will be, statistically anyways, nothing too exceptional! On a side note, last year we had 138.2 cms of snow, which means that 2.8% of winters would have less snow than that. WOW! what an analyis. math whiz i took some stats course back in the day, numbers never lie! its been a miserable 2 years in ottawa for snow lovers. (actually 2.5 years if you inculded the second half of 08-09) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 No more Joe on Accuweather! Wow... Now its up to Henry to take over the accuweather pro stuff. I wonder where he is going next. Hopefully somewhere free. "Farewell to Joe Bastardi who has left AccuWeather after a distinguished 32-year career. We appreciate Joe’s dedicated service to our clients over these many years and wish him luck with all his endeavors. In addition, a hearty congratulations to two great meteorologists who will both be taking on expanded roles -- Paul Pastelok is now leader of AccuWeather’s Long-Range Forecasting team and Henry Margusity is taking an expanded role with the Pro site." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 No more Joe on Accuweather! Wow... Now its up to Henry to take over the accuweather pro stuff. I wonder where he is going next. Hopefully somewhere free. "Farewell to Joe Bastardi who has left AccuWeather after a distinguished 32-year career. We appreciate Joe’s dedicated service to our clients over these many years and wish him luck with all his endeavors. In addition, a hearty congratulations to two great meteorologists who will both be taking on expanded roles -- Paul Pastelok is now leader of AccuWeather’s Long-Range Forecasting team and Henry Margusity is taking an expanded role with the Pro site." I will miss Joe's videos, but he's still on Twitter (updated about an hour or so ago). He's the one who got me interested in analogs, historical weather and teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 This Friday's storm could be quite interesting in these parts. Stay tuned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 Good call!! This Friday's storm could be quite interesting in these parts. Stay tuned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 most likely for us, rain appears to be on the way for monday but mixed precip / FRZRA cannot be ruled out with a potential rain to snow scenario too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 I'm thinking it may trend south some...so you guys are in play yet. This isn't the kind of deep trough that has to cut a primary through Montreal. Though I'm sure this time it changes over here......maybe more snow than thought up there. most likely for us, rain appears to be on the way for monday but mixed precip / FRZRA cannot be ruled out with a potential rain to snow scenario too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 most likely for us, rain appears to be on the way for monday but mixed precip / FRZRA cannot be ruled out with a potential rain to snow scenario too. The wacky thing is that EC is forecasting +15 c on Monday for Cornwall and NWS Burlington is forecasting +5 C and rain etc for Massena....somebody is wrong between those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 25, 2011 Share Posted February 25, 2011 The wacky thing is that EC is forecasting +15 c on Monday for Cornwall and NWS Burlington is forecasting +5 C and rain etc for Massena....somebody is wrong between those two. yeah i know.... env canada's model shows the storm blowing up well west of us and moving north flooding all of us with very very warm air.. that could happen, and given how poor the winter has been hard to bet against it a storm passing S of us, followed quickly by a storm passing N of us. to be clear, at this time....more concerned about the FRZRA threat with this one, especially in the ottawa valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 15C forecast is pretty bizarre. LOL Briefly 8C or 10C in warm sector just before fropa is plausible, but 15C seems unhinged. yeah i know.... env canada's model shows the storm blowing up well west of us and moving north flooding all of us with very very warm air.. that could happen, and given how poor the winter has been hard to bet against it a storm passing S of us, followed quickly by a storm passing N of us. to be clear, at this time....more concerned about the FRZRA threat with this one, especially in the ottawa valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 0z NAM offers up a potential advisory snowfall (3-5"?) for C NY / MV / CD Tomorrow Night into Sunday Morning... Someone can start a thread if they want or can just use this thread since this isn't too big of a deal for most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Interestingly, Joe Bastardi has tweeted saying that he think this March may be similar to that of March 1956 in the lakes and northeast. I checked the EC data and noticed that this winter has been quite similar to that of 1955-56 in Ottawa in terms of both snowfall and temperature. It wasn't a very snowy winter at all, with December seeing only 27cm, while this February may finish up identical in terms of mean temperature. http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=XX&StationID=4337&Year=1955&Month=12&Day=1 December 1955 was colder than December 2010, but January 2011 was colder than January 1956, so it sort of balances out. Summer 2010 was very hot here, as was summer 1955. 1955-56 was also a La Nina winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 The wacky thing is that EC is forecasting +15 c on Monday for Cornwall and NWS Burlington is forecasting +5 C and rain etc for Massena....somebody is wrong between those two. I am thinking of chasing the cutter in Quebec as I'm going to be in Northern Vermont visiting friends tomorrow through Monday...I am wondering how far north I will need to go. I know some folks around Chicoutimi, think they stay all snow? Any cool places north of Montreal that stay all snow? Can some of the Canucks on here please help? EDIT: I'm talking about the Monday/Tuesday storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I am thinking of chasing the cutter in Quebec as I'm going to be in Northern Vermont visiting friends tomorrow through Monday...I am wondering how far north I will need to go. I know some folks around Chicoutimi, think they stay all snow? Any cool places north of Montreal that stay all snow? Can some of the Canucks on here please help? EDIT: I'm talking about the Monday/Tuesday storm... Joliette is interesting. The river freezes over and people skate. Quebec City is great. Bai Saint Paul is in an amazin geographic location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Man, if you think this February has been bad, take a look at February 1981. http://www.climate.w...&Month=2&Day=24 Torch of torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I am thinking of chasing the cutter in Quebec as I'm going to be in Northern Vermont visiting friends tomorrow through Monday...I am wondering how far north I will need to go. I know some folks around Chicoutimi, think they stay all snow? Any cool places north of Montreal that stay all snow? Can some of the Canucks on here please help? EDIT: I'm talking about the Monday/Tuesday storm... Chicoutimi is about as far north as the road will go anyways (to the best of my knowledge). I agree with OB about Baie Saint Paul...beautiful place, and from there you can go to Charlevoix. These places should stay snow hopefully. Near Quebec City there are the Montmorency Falls which are spectacular in winter. Just keep in mind the further into rural Quebec you go, the more tricky it can get to communicate, given the language difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Chicoutimi is about as far north as the road will go anyways (to the best of my knowledge). I agree with OB about Baie Saint Paul...beautiful place, and from there you can go to Charlevoix. These places should stay snow hopefully. Near Quebec City there are the Montmorency Falls which are spectacular in winter. Just keep in mind the further into rural Quebec you go, the more tricky it can get to communicate, given the language difference. I'm pretty fluent in French luckily, was my major in college, and also worked on a farm near Chicoutimi with French-speaking hosts when I was18...thankfully the language barrier shouldn't be a problem although I occasionally get stumped by the Quebecois accent in rural areas. That's why I was thinking of the Saguenay River Valley, they'll stay all snow almost certainly and probably have some ridiculous snow depths after the storm. I love Parc Mont-Valins, probably inaccessible in winter but I hiked there in June 2006, and it was spectacular. Was still holding snow above 2000' elevation in early June. I'm a bit worried places right along the St. Lawrence won't stay all snow. The storm does seem to be trending a bit weaker, which should help, but I was thinking of either Tremblant or somewhere just north of Quebec City. I want to keep the driving reasonable but it seems worthwhile to go if I'm already going to be up at Middlebury VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 This is the time period I'm worried about, gets pretty warm: Brutal cold over N. Quebec in the mid-range. Anyone ever been up to Lac Mistassini or other areas of the arctic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I'm pretty fluent in French luckily, was my major in college, and also worked on a farm near Chicoutimi with French-speaking hosts when I was18...thankfully the language barrier shouldn't be a problem although I occasionally get stumped by the Quebecois accent in rural areas. That's why I was thinking of the Saguenay River Valley, they'll stay all snow almost certainly and probably have some ridiculous snow depths after the storm. I love Parc Mont-Valins, probably inaccessible in winter but I hiked there in June 2006, and it was spectacular. Was still holding snow above 2000' elevation in early June. I'm a bit worried places right along the St. Lawrence won't stay all snow. The storm does seem to be trending a bit weaker, which should help, but I was thinking of either Tremblant or somewhere just north of Quebec City. I want to keep the driving reasonable but it seems worthwhile to go if I'm already going to be up at Middlebury VT. Ah nice...language is not an issue then! If the 12Z GEM is to be believed, it will be rain pretty much up to the Saguenay valley. I would bet on Gaspe being the one place that would most likely be snow, but that is far! But...given the insanity these models tend to show...it's impossible to tell anything really! There will be plenty of snow to be enjoyed regardless of what happens though, especially north of Quebec city. Never been up towards the arctic...always wanted to though. As a winter lover, Labrador City is my dream retirement place haha...all storms seem to end up around there anyways! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Ah nice...language is not an issue then! If the 12Z GEM is to be believed, it will be rain pretty much up to the Saguenay valley. I would bet on Gaspe being the one place that would most likely be snow, but that is far! But...given the insanity these models tend to show...it's impossible to tell anything really! There will be plenty of snow to be enjoyed regardless of what happens though, especially north of Quebec city. Never been up towards the arctic...always wanted to though. As a winter lover, Labrador City is my dream retirement place haha...all storms seem to end up around there anyways! GGEM has a warm bias though; the GFS clearly shows the Saguenay Valley staying all snow and getting absolutely creamed. I am absolutely in love with the Saguenay Valley; the drive from Quebec City is epic with the rolling terrain, hardwood forests tending towards spruce in the higher elevations, and then the great views of the river when you are up there. I don't think I'm going to drive all the way to the Gaspe; I'm thinking Chicoutimi is an absolute limit and I probably wouldn't even drive that far, more like Tremblant area or Quebec City. I've never been further north than the Chicoutimi/Parc Mont-Valin area, but my friend did a canoeing trip up at Lake Mistassini and said it was incredibly gorgeous...apparently the guides were all native Cree. I'm totally fascinated by the geography of Quebec, it gets to be a true boreal wilderness up by Chicoutimi and there's so much more to explore. All you need is a dollar and a dream right? Labardor City is a great place for snow since a lot of coastal storms phase and bomb out near the Canadian Maritimes...you're far enough inland to stay all snow in Labrador City, and I think they average like 140" year. You can even get some rare triple phasers up there that give you 30" if you are lucky..I know Nova Scotia had one in 2004. I've seen pictures of Newoundland/Labrador and it is amazing countryside, super lush and very mountainous. The blocking pattern in Winter 09-10 and December 2010 really sucked for those areas with a constant E/SE flow off the Atlantic, but now they're getting into the real arctic air. Almost all of Canada will be below average the next couple weeks with the greatest cold anomalies in BC and then shifting towards Quebec. GFS shows a wide pool of -30C 850s stretching from Central Quebec to the NW Territory/Nunavut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Just looking at my 06Z smartmodel outputs seeing some nice snowfall potentials for the 28th. Seeing 8" around Erie and for Cleveland it is showing 19.6", but I would not jump on that one quite yet, need a few more runs to see how that output will turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Latest EC forecast for ottawa is awful with the temperatures staying above freezing even behind the upcoming storm, if EC is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I'm pretty fluent in French luckily, was my major in college, and also worked on a farm near Chicoutimi with French-speaking hosts when I was18...thankfully the language barrier shouldn't be a problem although I occasionally get stumped by the Quebecois accent in rural areas. That's why I was thinking of the Saguenay River Valley, they'll stay all snow almost certainly and probably have some ridiculous snow depths after the storm. I love Parc Mont-Valins, probably inaccessible in winter but I hiked there in June 2006, and it was spectacular. Was still holding snow above 2000' elevation in early June. I'm a bit worried places right along the St. Lawrence won't stay all snow. The storm does seem to be trending a bit weaker, which should help, but I was thinking of either Tremblant or somewhere just north of Quebec City. I want to keep the driving reasonable but it seems worthwhile to go if I'm already going to be up at Middlebury VT. based on the overnight modeling, i would defintely keep tremblant in mind, but the storm doesnt look all that organized to make a correct assesment at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 GGEM has a warm bias though; the GFS clearly shows the Saguenay Valley staying all snow and getting absolutely creamed. I am absolutely in love with the Saguenay Valley; the drive from Quebec City is epic with the rolling terrain, hardwood forests tending towards spruce in the higher elevations, and then the great views of the river when you are up there. I don't think I'm going to drive all the way to the Gaspe; I'm thinking Chicoutimi is an absolute limit and I probably wouldn't even drive that far, more like Tremblant area or Quebec City. I've never been further north than the Chicoutimi/Parc Mont-Valin area, but my friend did a canoeing trip up at Lake Mistassini and said it was incredibly gorgeous...apparently the guides were all native Cree. I'm totally fascinated by the geography of Quebec, it gets to be a true boreal wilderness up by Chicoutimi and there's so much more to explore. All you need is a dollar and a dream right? Labardor City is a great place for snow since a lot of coastal storms phase and bomb out near the Canadian Maritimes...you're far enough inland to stay all snow in Labrador City, and I think they average like 140" year. You can even get some rare triple phasers up there that give you 30" if you are lucky..I know Nova Scotia had one in 2004. I've seen pictures of Newoundland/Labrador and it is amazing countryside, super lush and very mountainous. The blocking pattern in Winter 09-10 and December 2010 really sucked for those areas with a constant E/SE flow off the Atlantic, but now they're getting into the real arctic air. Almost all of Canada will be below average the next couple weeks with the greatest cold anomalies in BC and then shifting towards Quebec. GFS shows a wide pool of -30C 850s stretching from Central Quebec to the NW Territory/Nunavut. this part made me how much did middlebury get yesterday? BTV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Latest EC forecast for ottawa is awful with the temperatures staying above freezing even behind the upcoming storm, if EC is to be believed. i think we will have occasiaonal days close to freezing, but nothing too warm. but of course the GEM is way warm for monday. all the other models imply ottawa may barely get above freezing, if at all... still a bit early to make that call, but there are vast difference between the GEM and the NCEP/euro ....it certainly wont be 15C! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 forgot to add Zucker the way things have been going the past couple years, you may not have to go anyhwere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 I chased a snow storm in Quebec in October of 09' and took a relatively easy ride up to St. Michel des Saints... That is a good location because it is almost at the latitude of Quebec City, but essentially due north of Montreal ..good road up. It is a very pretty town near parks etc. and only maybe 1 hour and 20 minutes up from Montreal. Now looking at the new NAM you may actually be able to stay further south ..but just saying this is a good spot if you venture north of the St. Lawrence. I'm pretty fluent in French luckily, was my major in college, and also worked on a farm near Chicoutimi with French-speaking hosts when I was18...thankfully the language barrier shouldn't be a problem although I occasionally get stumped by the Quebecois accent in rural areas. That's why I was thinking of the Saguenay River Valley, they'll stay all snow almost certainly and probably have some ridiculous snow depths after the storm. I love Parc Mont-Valins, probably inaccessible in winter but I hiked there in June 2006, and it was spectacular. Was still holding snow above 2000' elevation in early June. I'm a bit worried places right along the St. Lawrence won't stay all snow. The storm does seem to be trending a bit weaker, which should help, but I was thinking of either Tremblant or somewhere just north of Quebec City. I want to keep the driving reasonable but it seems worthwhile to go if I'm already going to be up at Middlebury VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 BGM (BGM Reg Arpt here in Maine) is sitting at 88.9" to-date this winter... +8.0 above the 1971-00 Seasonal Avg. Dec 2010 was a Top 5 snowiest, and another 1.1" before the end of this month would rank February 2011 in the Top 5 snowiest. Tonight's clipper comes at a perfect time with only 2 days left in the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 the NCEP/Euro models continue to be on the cold side for the monday event. would be more of an ice/snow threat here, while the GEM continues to amplify and phase, resulting in a west, rain track. it could actually be a nasty little ice and snow event if the storm 'threads the needle' just right wrt to enough precip in the marginal cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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