Organizing Low Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Ottawa is officially torching - sunshine and 50F/10C! i hate to say it, but it feels great being able to walk outside and not have to wear boots and have the winter coat unzipped. I feel really bad for the tourists who made the long treck to ottawa and booked hotel rooms for the last weekend of Winterlude though. Most of the main sights are shut down due to the warm weather. Granted, they should be able to salvage some of it by tomorrow evening. yeah thats a bad deal for those poor folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 60 degrees now in the lake george region thats a mega TOURCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Up to 11C/51F in Ottawa with clear blues skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Up to 11C/51F in Ottawa with clear blues skies. dewpoint has fallen rapidly to -2C torch is officially past peak in ottawa, but still a beautiful day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proof Sheet Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 dewpoint has fallen rapidly to -2C torch is officially past peak in ottawa, but still a beautiful day That is good news....I hit +11.4 here and I'm at +11.2 c now with 37% RH.....not as warm as southern Virginia where it is +26 c and not as cold as Sault Ste Marie where it is -3 c. Winterlude is going to be a wash out for any outdoor activity involving snow, skating, ice carving etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Mercifully the snow pack survived...especially in the residential areas...it's still all white, and reasonably deep. Though in open areas and near highways its sporadic. But....it still looks like winter! Looking at the webcams, it seems the thaw ate away most, if not all, of the snow in the southern parts of the province. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 LES will start up soon.....4"-6" for the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The cold air is certainly taking its time getting back in. Winds still out of the WSW. When is the cold forecast to move in tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Yea, all my dogs "toys" from this winter are starting to appear. Bones, squirrel carcass's etc. I still have mailny 6"-12" of cover, but the steep southern exposure parts of my lawn are bare. I drove from Pulaski to Earlville and back today for work. Pulaski to Camden appears to have held up great to the thaw. McConnellsville started looking thin (but there were still sleds riding....). From Oneida Lake south will need more snow. There are pockets near and south of the Route 20 corridor where the snow seems to have held on, but not on a large enough scale to ride. Hopefully these upcoming smaller storms will build the snowpack back up! From a hydrological standpoint, this has been a great thaw. Warm temperatures have significantly depleted the snowpack, but the streams and rivers are hardly up with no flooding that I have heard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 The cold air is certainly taking its time getting back in. Winds still out of the WSW. When is the cold forecast to move in tonight? I think it's here. Holy crap it's windy...I am on the 21st floor, so it's particularly windy...I think my apartment is about to fly off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 measured a brief gust of 60mph near hsbc arena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 I think it's here. Holy crap it's windy...I am on the 21st floor, so it's particularly windy...I think my apartment is about to fly off. No kidding! I was out for a walk just after 9 and the wind was blowing a gale. Some light snow was also falling. Wind warnings down in the Toronto area, with gusts up to 100 km/h (about 60mph)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 That is good news....I hit +11.4 here and I'm at +11.2 c now with 37% RH.....not as warm as southern Virginia where it is +26 c and not as cold as Sault Ste Marie where it is -3 c. Winterlude is going to be a wash out for any outdoor activity involving snow, skating, ice carving etc. Won't be as bad as the Winterlude in 1981 must have been. Take a look at the torch that month! http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?Prov=XX&timeframe=2&StationID=4337&Day=1&Month=2&Year=1981&cmdB1=Go February 1984 was also a washout. http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=XX&StationID=4337&Year=1984&Month=2&Day=17 22mm (almost an inch) of rain on the 14th that year. Look at the snowstorm at the end of the month though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 measured a brief gust of 60mph near hsbc arena I've had a few gust of 60+....I Don't know what BUF is thinking about not putting the North Country under a HWW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Its very windy here tonight. I've had a gust to 51 mph. 50 mph gust last night here....Siding on the house fluttered like the house was possessed! It was the strongest wind since moving to L'pool in '07. I think this morning is going to be one of the harsher mornings this winter, when combining the wind, snow, and temps in the l/m 20's. Winter has come back for it's encore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 21* 2" of new snow and it sounded like someone built an Amtrack line all around my house last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 perfect disaster-ice storm series (Montreal) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEyfj4yzh7I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 after this weekends event, we look to finally enter a pattern that is much more conducive to sustained activity for the North Coutry. there will no significant blocking, and no rogue PVs crossing the region.....and we will have an active jetstream supplying energy. granted, the PV will be lurking over hudsons bay but thats much better than we've seen over eastern quebec and the maritimes, and amenable to sustained activity and cold supply. the door will be open IF the jetstream waves cooperate. it could be a very active period. of course there are no guarantees, one can only look at the general pattern. the greater risk would be rain over suppression, or the lack of amplificaiton due to flat waves, resulting in solutions S and E- but that is with any system in any pattern. but physically, there wont be anytihng to stop them coming N an W into our region i dont think, and we will have an active jet. of course in the weather, anything can change on a dime, but this has been a long lead signal, and we are about to enter that period now. its too bad we couldnt get this type of pattern to setup earlier in the year. we'll see how it plays out, and if new cruel ways to frustrate the winter enthusiast, are found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 perfect disaster-ice storm series (Montreal) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEyfj4yzh7I dramatic!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 dramatic!!! it could happen in the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I'm up in the Keene/Jay area (15 minutes from Lake Placid) for a week of winter vacation in the Dacks. Looks like we're too far north for this upcoming system - which is fine b/c we spent about 4 hours yesterday shoveling off a pond for skating/hockey. There's a solid 2' snowpack in this area, compared to the less than 1 inch that we had here last year at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Despite dews at 11-13F, it's begun snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Despite dews at 11-13F, it's begun snowing. how about now?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 we'll see how it plays out, and if new cruel ways to frustrate the winter enthusiast, are found. (this relates mostly to us in the Ottawa Valley) Storms have gone to our north, to our south, to our east, to our west. December forgot it was winter, January tried really hard. February took the cue from January, but then decided it couldn't be bothered. Winter should eventually run out of ideas to frustrate us...I am hoping... For a city that averages close to 100 inches of snow a year, winter seems to have, so far, given it the proverbial middle finger. It's been a bit like the cursor in ayuuds signature (which for a brief few seconds made me think my mouse had gone mad)...trying to figure out where we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 (this relates mostly to us in the Ottawa Valley) Storms have gone to our north, to our south, to our east, to our west. December forgot it was winter, January tried really hard. February took the cue from January, but then decided it couldn't be bothered. Winter should eventually run out of ideas to frustrate us...I am hoping... For a city that averages close to 100 inches of snow a year, winter seems to have, so far, given it the proverbial middle finger. It's been a bit like the cursor in ayuuds signature (which for a brief few seconds made me think my mouse had gone mad)...trying to figure out where we are. Toronto may very well end up with more snow than Ottawa this year. I think the pattern was set months ago and don't see any real changes on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I drove the I-390 up to BUF this evening (hoping that I would either hit a lull or get through before the snow hit). In short, it went from nothing to moderate SN in a matter of 1 mile. I stopped to get quick gas for 5 minutes. It just so happened that it likely saved my life as came upon two tractor trailers completely jackknifed across 390. It was really bad. Road was completely snow covered with 1-2 inches. Everyone was going way too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 (this relates mostly to us in the Ottawa Valley) Storms have gone to our north, to our south, to our east, to our west. December forgot it was winter, January tried really hard. February took the cue from January, but then decided it couldn't be bothered. Winter should eventually run out of ideas to frustrate us...I am hoping... For a city that averages close to 100 inches of snow a year, winter seems to have, so far, given it the proverbial middle finger. It's been a bit like the cursor in ayuuds signature (which for a brief few seconds made me think my mouse had gone mad)...trying to figure out where we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Toronto may very well end up with more snow than Ottawa this year. I think the pattern was set months ago and don't see any real changes on the horizon. while i defintely defintely agree with you that snow 'winners' are setup geenrally early in the year and tend to carry through, all the models last night cotinue to indicate we are entering an active pattern with nothing to stop the storms from moving N and W and hitting us. i still fear rain over suppression in this pattern, but of course it doesnt mean it will work out either. but its as good AND as active as it has looked in a couple years. we've had periods of good pattern over the past couple season, but there has been no activity/energy to utilize those brief windows of opportunity. can ottawa break the jinx? if they cant do it in the next 10 days, it will be highway robbery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 can ottawa break the jinx? Have we really been screwed by winter? Obviously winter can't answer that, but maybe statistics can....and since I am a bit bored... As EC doesn't provide standard deviations, a bit of maths gives the mean seasonal snowfall for Ottawa from 1971/72 to 2000/01 as 232.8 cms, with a standard deviation of 49.67. We can assume that seasonal snowfall follows the good old Gaussian (normal) distribution. So far this season, we have had a grand total of 120.8 cms of snow. For arguments sake, lets assume it won't snow anymore! The null hypothesis: This seasons snowfall is nothing exceptional when compared to the usual Ottawa winters (i.e. we haven't really been screwed). A simple hypothesis test shows that, if this season gets 120.8 cms of snow, 1.2% of all possible winter seasons would have less snowfall than this season! With the usual significance level of 0.05, the null hypothesis gets rejected......winter did screw us! But, taking a more conservative level of 0.01, it seems winter did not screw us...this has been bad, but not too bad. However, sticking to the level of 0.05, how much more snow would we for this winter to not be too exceptional? If the seasonal snowfall total is.... 130.8 :- 2.02% of winters would have less 140.8 :- 3.22% of winters would have less 150.8 :- 4.95% of winters would have less 160.8 :- 7.49% of winters would have less So...30 cms more snow, and this winter will be, statistically anyways, nothing too exceptional! On a side note, last year we had 138.2 cms of snow, which means that 2.8% of winters would have less snow than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYwhiteout Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 No more Joe on Accuweather! Wow... Now its up to Henry to take over the accuweather pro stuff. I wonder where he is going next. Hopefully somewhere free. "Farewell to Joe Bastardi who has left AccuWeather after a distinguished 32-year career. We appreciate Joe’s dedicated service to our clients over these many years and wish him luck with all his endeavors. In addition, a hearty congratulations to two great meteorologists who will both be taking on expanded roles -- Paul Pastelok is now leader of AccuWeather’s Long-Range Forecasting team and Henry Margusity is taking an expanded role with the Pro site." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.