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Upstate NY/North Country Winter Thread III


snowgeek

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the 0z and 6z GFS offer quite the contrasts on the torch, and represent the 2 opposite extremes as far as duration and severity.

this has been the theme on the models.....as per the 6z GFS does a backdoor cold front progress far enough across the continent to cool us off and build a wall of heights near the canadian border and western high pressure... so the torch ending storm a short while later has to run W-E resulting in a rain->ice->snow event as arctic air oozes down across the lakes.

or as per the 00z, does a big storm in atlantic canada and strong atlantic high bottle things up enough that the backdoor front washes out to the NW and into hudsons bay, never crossing our region.... resulting in the next storm having enough room to cut well NW of us resulting in a full blown multi-day torch ending with rain.

the 00z euro backed off its 12z run yesterday, allowing an intermiedate ground. overall, the models are still undecided and waffling and we will have a better idea on monday. for now, i think its best to assume the worst considering how these usually play out.

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the latest GFS and GEM are becoming much more potent up here with the rainfall at the end of the week

this is pretty much in line with expectations with how torches come and go at this time of the year, and makes more sense given the abrupt end of the torch.

for my area at least, i would continue to watch for the torch to continue to amplify as we get closer, with higher humidities and more rain and more impact on the snowpack.

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I don't think this warmth is going to get too carried away. Looking at the water vapor map The pattern looks to cool back down after three days or so..Looking out for the rest of the month; the pattern for the end of the month looks to be complicated with quite a few short waves.... But the Teleconnectons and Models are picking up on some storminess around the 21st-23rd...But to be fair the GFS has started to back off of this Idea. The reason is the GFS has lost upstream blocking. So I guess we will just have to wait a few more day to see what turns up.

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well the torch is not going to be pretty

but at least on the globals it now looks to be of shorted duration, with the front coming through on friday evening.

hopefully the majority of the rain passes north of us too.

if we can keep cloud cover on thursday, that would be great too.

it certainly wont compare to the blowtorch of january 2008, but significant damage will still occur.

interesting, backing up Ottawa Blizzard's research, another storm will threaten the region early next week, and that could be a snowstorm for somewhere in our region... but there is a risk of mix with that too as the trough is actually out west and ironically we will need a block to develop and force the storm out under us, or else its another lake superior cutter west of us.....at this time, i would favor snow/mixed precip though based on OB's past history and the setup as of today.

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well the torch is not going to be pretty

but at least on the globals it now looks to be of shorted duration, with the front coming through on friday evening.

hopefully the majority of the rain passes north of us too.

if we can keep cloud cover on thursday, that would be great too.

it certainly wont compare to the blowtorch of january 2008, but significant damage will still occur.

interesting, backing up Ottawa Blizzard's research, another storm will threaten the region early next week, and that could be a snowstorm for somewhere in our region... but there is a risk of mix with that too as the trough is actually out west and ironically we will need a block to develop and force the storm out under us, or else its another lake superior cutter west of us.....at this time, i would favor snow/mixed precip though based on OB's past history and the setup as of today.

I think Ottawa will take a run at 50F/10C this week unfortunately. Awful conditions for the Rideau Canal skateway, although tthey might be able to salvage it for the weekend.

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THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS TAKES NEXT LOW ON A

PATH FROM NEAR CHI TO LK ONTARIO...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY

RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA...BUT LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 100 MILES

FURTHER SOUTH...TAKING THE LOW FROM ABOUT INDY TO PIT AND THEN OFF

JERSEY COAST TUES...WITH OUR REGION COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...WITH SOME

IMPRESSIVE QPF. TIME FRAME WOULD BE MON NT AND TUES MORNING. PLENTY

OF TIME TO WATCH THAT...FOR NOW WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY WITH INCR

CLOUDS AND BRING LOW CHC SNOW INTO WEST LATE IN DAY. STAY TUNED

:snowman:
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Yesterday's high at my house was 53.1F and most of the day was sunny. The snowpack held firm, but I don't think it will have as much staying power later this week because we'll have 48+ hours above freezing. Most of what melted yesterday just refroze deeper int he snowpack. That won't be the case later this week.

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