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Upstate NY/North Country Winter Thread III


snowgeek

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Snowing hard at the moment....is it just me or is this a LES streammer from Georgian bay?

not sure but there seems to be some sort of connection possibly.

gonna be interesting to see if this band gets hung up across ottawa as some of the models have hinted

looks like they are pelting snow in south ottawa via traffic cams

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taking a look at obs, theres a N wind in pettawawa and if you look at radar, the winds are flowing SW off the big lake to our south, with sqaulls along the seaway.

so deifnitely a line of beautiful convergence, helped by the strong SW winds to the south and some remnant moisure from georigan bay likely.

i thought yesterday that the setup looked intriguing on the models and thats why i posted about it, and it looks to have come to fruition....hats off to the RGEM/SREFs nailed this....NAM not so much.

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Good call, OL. There's way more down where I live in South Ottawa compared to close to downtown where I work. Last I checked 2 hours ago it was 2 inches. Its been continuous snow since. Love LES the 2 times a year we actually get it here in Ottawa. The band looks like it still stuck over us. I'm no LES expert, I wonder for how long it will stay.

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Good call, OL. There's way more down where I live in South Ottawa compared to close to downtown where I work. Last I checked 2 hours ago it was 2 inches. Its been continuous snow since. Love LES the 2 times a year we actually get it here in Ottawa. The band looks like it still stuck over us. I'm no LES expert, I wonder for how long it will stay.

nice! :thumbsup:

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Bored. This pattern stinks for us in the Hudson Valley. We'll be lucky to get a dusting from any of those little disturbances in the NW flow. It's cold and my x/c ski tracks are solid as a rock except where our dusting of snow blew into them. We have a nice 18" snow pack just waiting for either fresh snow or some warmth to soften it up. I can't wait for it to soften up so I can build a snowman, snow fort, snow sculpture, etc. We have 8" of powder with 3/4" of ice on top with 8" of powder on top with 1" of ice on top.

Looks like decent synoptic snows have shut down for a while. I'm going to Florida from 2/21 to 2/26 and when I get back it better snow again!

BTW, how do you change the statement that goes with the topic thread title? It doesn't really apply any more and I couldn't figure it out.

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Bored. This pattern stinks for us in the Hudson Valley. We'll be lucky to get a dusting from any of those little disturbances in the NW flow. It's cold and my x/c ski tracks are solid as a rock except where our dusting of snow blew into them. We have a nice 18" snow pack just waiting for either fresh snow or some warmth to soften it up. I can't wait for it to soften up so I can build a snowman, snow fort, s\now sculpture, etc. We have 8" of powder with 3/4" of ice on top with 8" of powder on top with 1" of ice on top.

Looks like decent synoptic snows have shut down for a while. I'm going to Florida from 2/21 to 2/26 and then it better snow again!

BTW, how do you change the statement that goes with the topic thread title? It doesn't really apply any more and I couldn't figure it out.

Go into edit on the original post for the thread..click on FULL EDITOR there you will be able to Edit the threads title.

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Thanks Andy! BTW, what's your take on the timing and duration of the upcoming possible warm up...................and when do you think the pattern will return to a more stormy one?

Go into edit on the original post for the thread..click on FULL EDITOR there you will be able to Edit the threads title.

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It looks like the warm up will occur next week. After that the northern jet might ease it's way back south cooling off Upstate NY and New England. This may lead to a split flow pattern that could lead to a storm or two. Could get interesting, but not for a while. The next week or so might be a good chance for me to get some more guitar time in :guitar: and ease up on the weather obsession :wacko:

Since there in not to much going on ATM, here is the fantasy storm of the day..The gfs has had a storm around this time frame for a while now, switching back and forth from a glc to an inland runner..This could be the next big 1 to watch..

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Kinda classic late winter/early Spring fun ...if it happens. We haven't had such a pattern in a few years. After last years late February megastorm winter pretty much died.

My favorite storm of that ilk was around March 13-15, 1984. Just a fantastic battle of seasons and 18"+ in many parts near the CD.

It looks like the warm up will occur next week. After that the northern jet might ease it's way back south cooling off Upstate NY and New England. This may lead to a split flow pattern that could lead to a storm or two. Could get interesting, but not for a while. The next week or so might be a good chance for me to get some more guitar time in :guitar: and ease up on the weather obsession :wacko:

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It looks like the warm up will occur next week. After that the northern jet might ease it's way back south cooling off Upstate NY and New England. This may lead to a split flow pattern that could lead to a storm or two. Could get interesting, but not for a while. The next week or so might be a good chance for me to get some more guitar time in :guitar: and ease up on the weather obsession :wacko:

hopefully lake erie keeps me under 40F during next week warm spell :popcorn:

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I bet that as we get closer to our "warm up" (as progged) it will be quite muted vs. what is depicted by model consensus.....just look what the modified Pac. air has to go over....might as well come from N/C Canada! (j/k):

scover.gif

yeah thats a good point LEK

though the Plains and south will be melting off a lot of snow starting this weekend, by next week i dont know how much snowcover will be left but wil be interesting to see its effects on the warmup

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It may help especially during the first stages of the warm up (Wed/Thur). Now we may ultimately have to endure about a one day siege as a low cuts well northwest - before cfropa. At that point it probably means higher dew points and above freezing temps one way or another. But one thawing 24 hour period is better than 72 hours straight.

yeah thats a good point LEK

though the Plains and south will be melting off a lot of snow starting this weekend, by next week i dont know how much snowcover will be left but wil be interesting to see its effects on the warmup

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Bottomed at -5.7° sometime during the night. It was up to +5.7° at 5:30 while the weather channel local forcast had my area at -11. It was quite breezy as I walked to my truck so I'm sure that had something to do with the warming temps.

-12.8F here for the low. A balmy -12.5F right now (and close to calm).

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Bottomed at -5.7° sometime during the night. It was up to +5.7° at 5:30 while the weather channel local forcast had my area at -11. It was quite breezy as I walked to my truck so I'm sure that had something to do with the warming temps.

My lovely wife reported her truck read -13 when she backed into the doghouse this morning, shattering the driver side rear tail light.:arrowhead:

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My lovely wife reported her truck read -13 when she backed into the doghouse this morning, shattering the driver side rear tail light.:arrowhead:

My lovely wife reported that it was "really cold out" after she locked her keys in her van, and locked herself out of the house! (Keypad to get in was not working...too cold) She got back in after she realized she had the remote opener in her coat pocket..... :arrowhead:

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