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Upstate NY/North Country Winter Thread III


snowgeek

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NAO and AO going negative!:thumbsup:

Yes, it looks as if there may be a brief period of blocking in mid-March; the 0z GFS showed a huge cut-off low meandering off the East Coast followed by an overrunning snowstorm. The 0z ECM trended towards the GFS with more development of that cut-off and colder temperatures in the East. I think that even your friends down by the coast may get one more wintry treat in March before all is said and done. Obviously, you have a lot more chances up there, and I am thinking of spending another weekend in the Dacks or Quebec for skiing and sledding fun.

BTW, I have a lot of upstate connections...one of my aunts lives in Schenectady and I used to visit her and my grandma up there a lot. Another lives near ART in Cape Vincent, NY...

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Yes, it looks as if there may be a brief period of blocking in mid-March; the 0z GFS showed a huge cut-off low meandering off the East Coast followed by an overrunning snowstorm. The 0z ECM trended towards the GFS with more development of that cut-off and colder temperatures in the East. I think that even your friends down by the coast may get one more wintry treat in March before all is said and done. Obviously, you have a lot more chances up there, and I am thinking of spending another weekend in the Dacks or Quebec for skiing and sledding fun.

BTW, I have a lot of upstate connections...one of my aunts lives in Schenectady and I used to visit her and my grandma up there a lot. Another lives near ART in Cape Vincent, NY...

nice :guitar:

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A potentially interesting scenario is possible Thursday night and Friday. Both the NAM and GFS slow the cold front from the primary storm and develop a negatively tilted H5 trough over the northeast. The primary dies and a secondary forms over New Jersey. The GFS is slower in moving the front through CNY but eventually it slowly moves the secondary from NJ NNW to close to Ottawa by Saturday morning. CNY would be in precip with H85 temps <0 for at least 12 hours. NAM at 84 is faster with the cold air and has a low over the lower Hudson Valley. It will be interesting to watch this develop.

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With historic 2.8" yesterday our March total had skyrocketed to a staggering 4.1"...which makes the fantastic Marches of the past two years pale in comparison.

Season total is up to 140.1", above average, but almost entirely contained within DJF. Total days with snow-cover is 104...above average. Total days with 10" or more of snow on the ground is approx. 73...well above average...but not a single day with 20" or more (peak depth was 19").

Once the complete COOP stuff for Jamestown comes out, I'll have a more complete summary on the winter so far around here. I'll give an 'A' for now because of the lack of a truly distinguishing feature IMBY- that still has the time to change in the next month and a half. Some great snowstorms have occurred after 3/15.

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