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Upstate NY/North Country Winter Thread III

snowgeek

By snowgeek,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted

I haven't started a thread yet on Americanwx....so here goes. The good, the bad and the ugly.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

157 PM EST THU JAN 27 2011

VALID 12Z SUN JAN 30 2011 - 12Z THU FEB 03 2011

BROKEN FIBER OPTIC CABLE LIMITED MODEL AVAILIBILITY THIS MORNING

AT TIME OF PRODUCT ISSUANCE. MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES OF THE PAST

TWO DAYS CONCERNED THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROF AXIS AND DELIVERY OF

COLD AIR INTO CONUS WITH GFS SHUNTING MORE COLD AIR EASTWARD WITH

ITS EASTWARD ORIENTED TROF AXIS WHILE ECMWF DROVE ITS TROF AXIS

CONSIDERABLY MORE WEST. THIS WAS RESOLVED BY THE USE OF LAGGED

AVERAGE FORECASTS WHICH WERE CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF ENS MEAN. TODAYS

RUNS ARE SHOWING A CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF

WITH A SUPRESSION BY THE ECMWF OF ITS DEEP SFC INVERTED TROF IN

THE MS VALLEY WHILE GFS HAS YIELDED ITS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE

ALLOWING MORE SFC LOW TO COME OUT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD

LATE PERIOD. AT THE MID LEVELS GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH CLOSER TODAY

LEAVING BEHIND A LINGERING POSITIVELY TILTED TROF OVER THE SRN

PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST WHILE TAKING THE MAIN TROF EAST DRIVING COLD

AIR SOUTH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ERN CONUS.

00Z/12Z CMC AND UKMET BRING OUT THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AS A GREATER

WHOLE ENTITY RESULTING IN DEEP CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY

TO THE OH VALLEY.

LAGGED AVERAGES FOR THE ECMWF ARE UNAVAILABLE. THE GFS ENS MEAN

SEEMS TO BE A GOOD FIRST GUESS SOLUTION WITH REASONABLE CONTINUITY

FROM PRIOR HPC SOLUTIONS AND A REASONABLE CONVERGENCE SOLUTION

BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS IS THE MORNING HPC SOLUTION

FOR TODAY. NEW 12Z GFS KEEPS GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE 00Z GFS RUN

AND THIS WAS ADDED TO BLENDED SOLUTION TO ADD SOME DETAIL FOR

AFTERNOON FINLA HPC PROGS.

A CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW WILL LEAVE A SWATH OF LT SNOW ACROSS THE

GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. MID LEVEL

SHORTWAVE TROF AND SFC ONSHORE LOW WILL BREAK OUT RAIN ACROSS TX

AND LA AND WORK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO MID WEEK.

SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SEWD ALONG THE CA COAST SUNDAY

WILL MOVE EASTWARD EITHER COMING OUT BODILY AS PER CMC AND UKMET

INDUCING A STRONG LOWER MS VALLEY LOW OR COME OUT SHEARED LEAVING

BEHIND A CONSIDERABLE TROF AXIS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS

LATTER SOLUTION PREFERRED AT THIS TIME BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW

CONFIDENCE. THIS SOLUTION WILL BRING A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WED.

THIS SOLUTION HAS A THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER TUES

TO THURSDAY ACROSS NR TX TO OK AND UP THE CENTRAL MS AND OH

VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLC REGIONS AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST WITH THE

ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE NORTHWARD WITH RAIN SOUTH.

ROSENSTEIN

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WNYLakeEffect

WNYLakeEffect

Posted
Posted

2.4" with this clipper and the next one looks like it will be similar, maybe a bit more.

3" today so far. 12-15" on the ground.

We're pretty much done with snow for January. 44.5" is the total for the month, which is above average. A trace or more of snow was on the ground every day this month. 18 days had a measurable snowfall, but the largest was only 4.8" on the 7th.

23.9" was lake effect and 20.6" was synoptic (albeit in small bits).

The winter so far:

YYYY-MM-DD,snowfall,snowdepth,
2010-11-26,0.005,0,
2010-11-27,1.4,1,
2010-11-28,0.2,1,
2010-11-29,0,1,
2010-11-30,0,0,
2010-12-01,2,2,
2010-12-02,0.2,2,
2010-12-03,2.2,4,
2010-12-04,2.3,5,
2010-12-05,3.8,8,
2010-12-06,8.5,13,
2010-12-07,4.3,14,
2010-12-08,7.2,18,
2010-12-09,0.5,17,
2010-12-10,0.005,15,
2010-12-11,0,14,
2010-12-12,0.005,10,	
2010-12-13,2.3,M,			
2010-12-14,8,18,	
2010-12-15,4,17,			
2010-12-16,1.5,16,			
2010-12-17,1,17,			
2010-12-18,0,M,
2010-12-19,0.005,M,
2010-12-20,0.3,14,			
2010-12-21,0.5,15,			
2010-12-22,0.005,M,
2010-12-23,0.3,M,			
2010-12-24,0,M,
2010-12-25,0.1,13,
2010-12-26,0.5,M,
2010-12-27,1.3,M,
2010-12-28,0,M,
2010-12-29,0,M,
2010-12-30,0,M,
2010-12-31,0,M,
2011-01-01,0,M
2011-01-02,0,0.005,
2011-01-03,1,1,				
2011-01-04,0.005,0.005,
2011-01-05,4,4,				
2011-01-06,0.005,M,
2011-01-07,4.8,7,			
2011-01-08,4,9,
2011-01-09,4,12,			
2011-01-10,1.5,13,
2011-01-11,1.7,12,
2011-01-12,3.5,14,
2011-01-13,2.6,16,
2011-01-14,1,13,
2011-01-15,3,15,
2011-01-16,1,14,
2011-01-17,0,M,
2011-01-18,0.005,M,
2011-01-19,0.005,9,
2011-01-20,1,9,
2011-01-21,3,12,
2011-01-22,0,M
2011-01-23,2,12,
2011-01-24,0,10,
2011-01-25,1,10,
2011-01-26,0,10,
2011-01-27,0,10,
2011-01-28,2.4,12,
2011-01-29,3,15,

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snowgeek

snowgeek

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Went on an awesome snowy adventure today with my son. Skied in 4 miles and then snowshoed 2.5 miles up Sawteeth Mt. in the DAKS. There was about 14" of snow at 1400' and 3' on the summit at 4100'. Beautiful powder with no evidence of any ice. On the way home we experienced an amazing snow event. On route 73, there were flurries about 2.5 miles east of the Northway (Rt. 87). About 2 miles east of 87 the road was covered. About 1.5 miles east there was 2 inches on the ground. About 1 mile east there was about 4 inches. By the time we got to 87 there was what looked like close to 5 or 6 inches and visibility was about 100'. It was an absolute whiteout. We drove about 5 miles south on 87 and the roads were clear and dry. We had been up at about 1700' on Rt. 73, 5 miles west of 87 and there was nothing. It was awesome and crazy! This was all on the usually dry leeward side of the ADK high peaks. We arrived home 2 hours later we checked the radar and there were some heavy snowshowers in the Champlain Valley. Not sure what caused them? Any ideas? Weak clipper was way south?

post-1592-0-32324600-1296366470.jpg

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ENYsnow

ENYsnow

Posted
Posted

Went on an awesome snowy adventure today with my son. Skied in 4 miles and then snowshoed 2.5 miles up Sawteeth Mt. in the DAKS. There was about 14" of snow at 1400' and 3' on the summit at 4100'. Beautiful powder with no evidence of any ice. On the way home we experienced an amazing snow event. On route 73, there were flurries about 2.5 miles east of the Northway (Rt. 87). About 2 miles east of 87 the road was covered. About 1.5 miles east there was 2 inches on the ground. About 1 mile east there was about 4 inches. By the time we got to 87 there was what looked like close to 5 or 6 inches and visibility was about 100'. It was an absolute whiteout. We drove about 5 miles south on 87 and the roads were clear and dry. We had been up at about 1700' on Rt. 73, 5 miles west of 87 and there was nothing. It was awesome and crazy! This was all on the usually dry leeward side of the ADK high peaks. We arrived home 2 hours later we checked the radar and there were some heavy snowshowers in the Champlain Valley. Not sure what caused them? Any ideas? Weak clipper was way south?

Nice pic! I've always been fascinated by the mesoscale winter weather that takes place in the high peaks and surrounding areas but man that is the most localized event i've heard of. I wish I knew what was going on but I can only guess the orographics were at work with some enhanced forcing from the clipper energy? I know the exact area your talking about and have driven through there many times.. I wish I could have seen that! I heard that this past december lake placid got 20" in an event while SLK got 5". Those locations are several more miles away than what you witnessed though and the orographic effects are much more pronounced.

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snowgeek

snowgeek

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The weirdest thing was that the lower in elevation we went, the heavier the snow got. Maybe there was some low level boundary level flow up the Champlain Valley causing some localized lift.

Nice pic! I've always been fascinated by the mesoscale winter weather that takes place in the high peaks and surrounding areas but man that is the most localized event i've heard of. I wish I knew what was going on but I can only guess the orographics were at work with some enhanced forcing from the clipper energy? I know the exact area your talking about and have driven through there many times.. I wish I could have seen that! I heard that this past december lake placid got 20" in an event while SLK got 5". Those locations are several more miles away than what you witnessed though and the orographic effects are much more pronounced.

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

the upcoming pattern will be interesting in the North Country and NNY......its going to feel like playing dodgeball with the warmth to the SW. a zonal warmup we'd be ok, but if a big ridge builds over the east we will be torched.

the models are unsettled on that.

if we go zonal, we can make out just fine with snow events every other day or so.....i recall such a pattern many yrs ago that lasted a couple weeks....and in fact was very productive.

as for the next several days, we cool down and a series of northern stream disturbances setsup, should be light snows every so often, with occasional heavier flurries and the snowpack will be freshened up once we get the colder air in here by tomorrow.

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Catskills

Catskills

Posted
Posted

For missing out on most of the big storms (or at least missing the brunt of them) we have developed a pretty decent snowpack here (18"-20"), and even better it has stayed around for awhile. It's not quite like SNE, but it's not too bad.

Right you are.

And things are drifting around here.

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

the GFS and RGEM are hinting at what could be a very impressive squall line tomorrow, especially across the ottawa valley and the city of ottawa.

NAM aint buying it though.

looks like that squall line should be coming into ottawa shortly.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XFT

had some decent snow here this morning for an hour in MTL, not really sure why or from what :unsure:

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