RU848789 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I know the guy can be difficult (often in response to baiting, however), but he's a pretty damn good meteorologist. Consider his first guess from Saturday night, 11/22, which he generally didn't deviate from, much, in subsequent days: some of the exact details might be off, which is not unexpected 3+ days out, but the general ideas of which areas would get the most, which would be on the fringes, which would mix/change to rain/sleet, etc. were nearly flawless. I'm not going to dissect each of his regions point by point, as I don't really have time, but if you look at them, they're quite good for 3+ days out. Kudos, Dave. Not sure if this deserves its own thread or not, but I thought it was worth it, since I know it'll be buried in the obs threads, which are just too cluttered up for a decent discussion, IMO. http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/NE1g.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I know the guy can be difficult (often in response to baiting, however), but he's a pretty damn good meteorologist. Consider his first guess from Saturday night, 11/22, which he generally didn't deviate from, much, in subsequent days: some of the exact details might be off, which is not unexpected 3+ days out, but the general ideas of which areas would get the most, which would be on the fringes, which would mix/change to rain/sleet, etc. were nearly flawless. I'm not going to dissect each of his regions point by point, as I don't really have time, but if you look at them, they're quite good for 3+ days out. Kudos, Dave. Not sure if this deserves its own thread or not, but I thought it was worth it, since I know it'll be buried in the obs threads, which are just too cluttered up for a decent discussion, IMO. http://www.wxrisk.co...011/01/NE1g.jpg Time to toot my horn. Here is my blogsite for relatives and friends. Please notice my winter prediction date for 2010-2011 - Nov 15, 2010. Please note the attached map that was posted on this site ( under amateur map) the same day as DT close call off a little bit in the NW side of the map. I called many of the storms movements but constantly saying it was going west because of the Memphis Low. Same thing is going to happen next week but a more westward track will mean less snow for the cities. See the map below Thanks http://msiegelweatherman.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 To be fair, im sure even he would acknowledge a pretty huge bust around Philly...his last call was for 3-6 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 his call was real good with the total amounts possible he scored on this one IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 his call was real good with the total amounts possible he scored on this one IMHO here is my map snow map10002 (3).pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 His call 2 days prior was good--a few days before that, he called for a inland snow event-I81 centered...as did JB. He called this storm akin to "near miss" in the KU book....check out his site and his entry 3-4 days prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I know the guy can be difficult (often in response to baiting, however), but he's a pretty damn good meteorologist. Consider his first guess from Saturday night, 11/22, which he generally didn't deviate from, much, in subsequent days: some of the exact details might be off, which is not unexpected 3+ days out, but the general ideas of which areas would get the most, which would be on the fringes, which would mix/change to rain/sleet, etc. were nearly flawless. I'm not going to dissect each of his regions point by point, as I don't really have time, but if you look at them, they're quite good for 3+ days out. Kudos, Dave. Not sure if this deserves its own thread or not, but I thought it was worth it, since I know it'll be buried in the obs threads, which are just too cluttered up for a decent discussion, IMO. http://www.wxrisk.co...011/01/NE1g.jpg If he had stuck with most of his first call as his final call, this would not have been such a huge bust for him, at least for the Philly metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Sorry but he had me getting 3 Inches and I got 14 inches! He busted around the philly W. SJ area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 here is my map What is that map from? yesterdays event? If it is it's not even close in many areas near PHL and south western NJ. If you moved it about 100 miles south it is damn good for 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 here is my map Don't toot your own horn too much, most of your map busted. The map is 100 to 150 miles too far to the North and West. You keep saying the storm was going west, west, west, but it did not go nowhere near as far west as you keep saying. PHL in 4 or less? They got well over a foot. Hell, I got close to a foot here in SJ, and you have me in nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Busted by me by 6". Got 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Busted by me by 6". Got 18 busted in my area by around 5 inches on his high end going off the map posted in this thread. This is a big bust no matter how you look at it overall. Almost every media outlet, pro met in the industry and new organization busted until it was nowcasting time. Mt holly had me for a warning for 5-9 inches of snow(were the first to issue a watch and snuff out a possible big dog. Upton was was calling for basically nothing with some light snow far NW zones)Accu weather was 3-5 and the NYC media news outlets were just poor overall. It seemed that everyone in the business was hugging the models ever run. It seems the days of looking at maps and patterns are almost gone and modelogy is what occurs to a certain degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Sorry but he had me getting 3 Inches and I got 14 inches! He busted around the philly W. SJ area. Same here... but so did Kathy Orr, she said 2-4" NBC 10 had me in 3-6" FOX 29 had me in 4-8" I picked up 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Same here... but so did Kathy Orr, she said 2-4" NBC 10 had me in 3-6" FOX 29 had me in 4-8" I picked up 12" Yes, but you don't see Kathy Orr patting herself on the back, about how good she did, when it's blatantly obvious it horribly busted, like Grothar. And like DT to a point. I think it's hilarious that the thread OP thinks he did great. How's that 3-6 forecast for PHL working out for him? And according to him in this setup, heavy snow was impossible, where it actually ended up happening. Maybe he'll learn to stop humping the Euro with every storm, sometime in this lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Didn't Kathy Orr bump it up to 4-8" for South Jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not to hijack this thread, but didn't David Murphy of Action News in Philly say it would be mainly rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not to hijack this thread, but didn't David Murphy of Action News in Philly say it would be mainly rain? Yes, but what else is new with them, same station that said the night before the Boxing Day storm, it would only be a dusting at the most. When all the other stations realized what was happening, and upped their totals drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Sorry but he had me getting 3 Inches and I got 14 inches! He busted around the philly W. SJ area. DT had west philly burbs in 6-12 and he had philly on the line between 6-12 and 3-6........ http://www.wxrisk.co.../01/NELASTC.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Good map overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Should we really be complimenting a met who has slandered AMWX through his fb posts? I could be just as good as DT if I changed my forecast with each run of the ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Good map overall. you must be joking. He has 12 + in NJ where some locations got 5 inches. I will leave it at that for this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Should we really be complimenting a met who has slandered AMWX through his fb posts? I could be just as good as DT if I changed my forecast with each run of the ECM Do the weenies that post here, and hinge on his every word, actually care about this site? The answer is no. if they're delusional enough to not be able to see right through what he's done here in the past, and what he continues to do, they could care less the fact that he slanders this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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