SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 12 GFS looking much wetter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 12 GFS looking much wetter! I was about to post the same thing!! All of Southside over .25 QPF..... towards the coast .50 One thing that might be troublesome this run however is temps, correct me if im wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 GFS gives southside a solid 4"+ snowfall! Going to be a close call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Sexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 GFS looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Looks to me that the 850's really crash b/w 6Z and 12Z for ORF. Hopefully the bulk of the precip falls closer to 12Z and it looks to do just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I think we might be getting near warning criteria based off the Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I think we might be getting near warning criteria based off the Gfs I'm betting on advisory still. AKQ may issue last minute warning if they think advisory is too low, but I'd say that wouldn't come until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 holy cow 12Z GFS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'm betting on advisory still. AKQ may issue last minute warning if they think advisory is too low, but I'd say that wouldn't come until tonight. We wont get a warning unless they upgrade it in the middle of the snow. Even thats doubtful at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 holy cow 12Z GFS ensembles Can you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Can you post? I can't get it to post, but I found it on Page 38 of the discussion in southeast states forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Despite the wetter guidance.... Wakefield cut back on accumulations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Despite the wetter guidance.... Wakefield cut back on accumulations... Wakefield says the 12z NAM is drier. I find that hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Despite the wetter guidance.... Wakefield cut back on accumulations... They're certainly not fans of RIC... I'd give the RIC metro around an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 seems like they just adjusted the higher totals just a a hair SE..still looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 They're certainly not fans of RIC... I'd give the RIC metro around an inch. how much for hampton roads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 They're certainly not fans of RIC... I'd give the RIC metro around an inch. Seems quite generous! I like hearing this coming from you though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 how much for hampton roads? About 1.5-2" in the general area... You can do a linear interpolation of the snowfall amounts on my map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 About 1.5-2" in the general area... You can do a linear interpolation of the snowfall amounts on my map: thanks, it will be nice to get the ground covered before the warm up. orf is at 18.5 now i think. we need to get to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Excited to see what transpires tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 All I am going to say is that these are the type of setups where we get surprised. Not saying it will happen here but those ensembles are sexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 FWIW: Using short-range GEFS for QPF = lol. SREF that thing or go with the operational models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 i predict 0-7 for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 All I am going to say is that these are the type of setups where we get surprised. Not saying it will happen here but those ensembles are sexy Yeah but it's not always a good surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 All I am going to say is that these are the type of setups where we get surprised. Not saying it will happen here but those ensembles are sexy Ensemble qpf shouldn't be used in the short term. The lower resolution will spread the precip out. I would go with Ellinwood's advice and stick with the operational models or the srefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Keep in mind that is COMPOSITE reflectivity.... highest reflectivity throughout the column, so it will look a lot more impressive than it really is. Make sure you look at accumulated precip as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voodoosnowgoddess Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Keep in mind that is COMPOSITE reflectivity.... highest reflectivity throughout the column, so it will look a lot more impressive than it really is. Make sure you look at accumulated precip as well. Can anyone post the accumulated precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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