WeSuck Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Not going to lie, the new canadian is sick nasty, check out the next frames. On phone atm so can't post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Not going to lie, the new canadian is sick nasty, check out the next frames. On phone atm so can't post it haha, yeah man. if that would just shift 30-40 miles north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Martin, you going south again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 That will probably end up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 That will probably end up north. That would be great. Continuing the model posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 Martin, you going south again? I wish. I actually am heading to DC Thursday morning. Wonder what the Euro will say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I wish. I actually am heading to DC Thursday morning. Wonder what the Euro will say Oh yeah, forgot you posted about that earlier. Euro has to wait till morning for me. But all runs tomorrow will be exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Here is the in between frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Wow, just got back and all of the models seem to at least be showing something for Southside.... well maybe except for the 00Z NAM... Anyone dare to make an attempt at accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Wow, just got back and all of the models seem to at least be showing something for Southside.... well maybe except for the 00Z NAM... Anyone dare to make an attempt at accumulations? flurries to four inches for the Hampton Roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Hmmm. I thought the storm was canceled? . 3-5" for southside. 5" closer to border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 flurries to four inches for the Hampton Roads. Hard to argue with that Theres so much uncertainty with systems such as these.. something i find interesting is correlating this system to the rain we had last night.... i think that many of the areas that got rain from that coastal low, may see snow from this one, it looks nearly identical on the models as far as qpf, i might look into how much rain actually fell at ORF yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Hard to argue with that Theres so much uncertainty with systems such as these.. something i find interesting is correlating this system to the rain we had last night.... i think that many of the areas that got rain from that coastal low, may see snow from this one, it looks nearly identical on the models as far as qpf, i might look into how much rain actually fell at ORF yesterday. Orf got .20". Somewhat similar except that storm never had a real chance nor was ever proged to be. This one at least had some "bullish" guidance. Still think it will come out to be the gfs of about 4 days ago around .30-.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Orf got .20". Somewhat similar except that storm never had a real chance nor was ever proged to be. This one at least had some "bullish" guidance. Still think it will come out to be the gfs of about 4 days ago around .30-.50" I will take 3-5 inches and be more than happy.. that would definitely give me a snowday from college. I really dont feel like going to microeconomics again this week ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Next sref will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I will take 3-5 inches and be more than happy.. that would definitely give me a snowday from college. I really dont feel like going to microeconomics again this week ... Haha, I don't blame you! It won't get me out of work, so I have no "bias" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 0Z Euro ORF THU 06Z 10-FEB 0.01 THU 12Z 10-FEB 0.08 THU 18Z 10-FEB 0.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 0Z Euro ORF THU 06Z 10-FEB 0.01 THU 12Z 10-FEB 0.08 THU 18Z 10-FEB 0.02 Although, it would be nice if it was wetter, don't typically rely on the euro as heavily in short range (<48hrs) forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 My call. T-1 Peninsula, 2-3 Southside, 3-5 Northern OBX and Eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 :gun_bandana:6z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 if the 12z nam is as bad as the 6z than we might be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 looks good to me What do you think about the low dew points? Right now VB is at 9! I do like that this will be at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 i just want to get one last snow on the ground before the warm up, even if its just a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 WAVY in house model still keeps showing snow from RIC to ORF all night NWS bumped the totals up a little bit on the Southside http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/winter/totalsnow.png Tonight: Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind becoming north between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Thursday: A chance of light snow, mainly before 10am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 39. North wind between 8 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN DECENT ALIGNMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING OFF THE SERN AND MID ATLC COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A TIGHT MSTR (AND THUS QPF) GRADIENT N-S ALONG AND N OF THE FGEN ZONE. LATEST (03Z) SREF AND 00Z ECMWF CAME IN SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS...THUS HAVE BASED THE FCST USING AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH WITH THESE 3 RUNS. WITH THE LATEST RUNS... IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AMPLIFIED/FARTHER NORTH TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ENDED. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED...ITS ALWAYS A CONCERN WHEN SUCH ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH INTO THE SCNTRL US AND GULF OF MEXICO REGION. BASED ON THE LATEST STLT IR/WV LOOPS UPSTREAM ALONG WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS TOO CONFLUENT FOR COMPLETE PHASING OF THE NRN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAKS/VORT LOBES. THIS WILL INHIBIT THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF SFC LOW PRESSURE AS IT TRACKS NE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INSTEAD LEADING TO A FAST MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DOES NOT DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL IT REACHES WELL OFF THE NC COAST AFTER 12Z THU. NEVERTHELESS...THE MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF NE NC. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPR LVL Q-VECTOR FORCING COINCIDING WITH LOW-MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS/LIFT UP THROUGH THE -15 TO -20C LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT 06-13Z THU. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW A LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NERN NC BTWN 06-12Z...COINCIDING WITH THE GOOD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE A BULLS EYE SWATH OF MAXIMUM QPV. AGAIN... EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TIME OF MOST CONCERN. AS THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER...AND WITH INITIALLY VERY DRY COLD AIR WED EVENING...SOME OF THE INITIAL QPF WILL TEND TO BE WASTED INTO COLUMN MOISTENING. THUS...THERE WILL TEND TO BE SHARP CUTOFF IN THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE NW/DRIER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SNOW AMTS SHOULD GNLY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A DUSTING FROM N AND W OF RICHMOND...TO A SLIVER OF 1-2 INCHES INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND 2-3"/UP TO 4" DOWN ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. ONCE AGAIN DID NOT INCLUDE HAMPTON ROADS IN THE WATCH DUE TO A FAIRLY SMALL CHC FOR WRNG CRITERIA SNOW (WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF 4" IN 12 HOURS FOR VA). HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE AN ADSY FOR SOME OF FAR SE VA/HAMPTON ROADS...ESPECIALLY AS THE TIMING COINCIDES WITH THE THU AM RUSH HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 We always have to overcome dry air in an all snow event. I just think there will be a little more overall qpf output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Looks excellent to me! 2-4 inches is my official call for ORF with T-1 for Coach's peninsula and 3-6 for northern Outerbanks. Nowcast time in full effect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 9, 2011 Author Share Posted February 9, 2011 12Z NAM is much better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 If that is "much better", then I'm glad I did not look at 6Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 12Z NAM is much better! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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