Martin Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS says no. NAM says yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 GFS says no. NAM says yes It's the NAM 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Why is the gfsOP one of the worst when comparing with how the ensembles look with this storm? More than half of the members show a decent hit on the earlier runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Thurs will trend back. Exhibit A is right in front of you all canceling thursday event. Tuesday was nothing now all of sudden its shifting nw and we will end up with .50" qpf. You can't cancel the weather, its going to do what's its going to do. I can't imagine thursday being anything significant, but I would expect at least a minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 0z ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Futhermore, no one model is best. They all fail and they all do well from time to time. Its all about trends and model bias/tendancies. Gfs had 12/26 storm with less than .30" up until 48 hrs before that event. How much did we get?... ~1.50". Models aren't controlling the weather and sometimes I wonder if you guys don't realize that with some of these comments; everyone gets so bent over every run (good and bad). For Thursday event the trends aren't good, but a couple models and ensemble members show a decent event, so there is hope. And, gfs does have a se bias at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 What storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I never gave up. still think 2-3 is likely somewhere around here. some people are just stating what they think a model shows to get input or maybe a sounding. in my opinion the more posts the better under impending conditions because they dont happen to often. Plus i think the next "threat" for seva wont be for At least 2 weeks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 RIP Euro Storm 0z Precip for Norfolk THU 12Z 10-FEB 0.02 THU 18Z 10-FEB 0.06 RIC: .02 DC: .00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I am Snow-blind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z GFS = Flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 congrats Nags Head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 congrats Nags Head Lucky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like I'm heading south unless this thing trends NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well Euro is a little better. Trend?! THU 12Z 10-FEB 0.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Jackpot! ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Oh what Oh what will the 18z GFS Show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 18z GFS = Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I think it's pretty safe to say that Thursday's storm is a bust. I bet we'll get a few snow showers or flurries but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The whole mid Atlantic thread is fail. We are running on hopes and dreams. Only memories of the past keep us alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 new NAM looks real solid. At 12Z thurs we are solidly in the .1precip and justt bordering the .25 for the 6 hr period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 outer banks looks like another 3-5 inch storm on the NAM.. have to check surface temps though 850's looks plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 12z models looking a little better for at least a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Bus trip to Cape Point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yes, coming back a bit now. I think we'll see a general .5-1 inch quick hitter for southside HR. Not what I was hoping for but I'll take it as a cap on pretty good winter all in all. Much better than I was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 RaleighWx seems to like my 2-3" thinking from yesterday http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/light-snow-likely-across-the-southeast-and-the-triangle-wednesday-thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 All hail the rgem! .4+ QPF for ORF. GFS ensembles sexy! 3/4 show good hit southside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 All hail the rgem! .4+ QPF for ORF. GFS ensembles sexy! 3/4 show good hit southside nice. Any worry about surface temps? I know 850's are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wakefield says 2in for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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