Suffolkweather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 looking good for thursday. Its good that gfs is a little flat (se) and weak in this timeframe as it will inevitably shift nw. Similar model camps as 12/26/2010 storm at 5 days out. Euro was bullish, gfs weak & OTS, cmc in the middle. Maybe we can get a repeat performace. Not the same synoptic setup as that storm, just talking model guidance. Intersting at least for us. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Definately encouraging that we are on day 2-3 of being in the bullseye...hope that doesn't murder us coming soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I love you CMC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 If this one comes through, how long will we be banned from complaining about winter? 10, 20 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 If this one comes through, how long will we be banned from complaining about winter? 10, 20 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The only problem is that this snow storm is for Thursday, not tomorrow. It usually sucks being in the bullseye 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 The only problem is that this snow storm is for Thursday, not tomorrow. It usually sucks being in the bullseye 4-5 days out. True, but Dec. 26th we were bullseye 3-4 days out before the models lost the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Would be feeling pretty good if I was in SE VA at this point. Given the general consensus, this has all the hallmarks of a NE NC - SE VA SN-storm, dominant southern stream parcel and not dependent on a phase, OTS track, which should make it easier to resolve given the t-step. 0z EC scaled back the QPF by a factor of 4, but we have seen it numerous times this winter where the Euro latches on to a extreme solution in the 5-7 day, only to scale back if not loose it in the mid-range, and all the guidance coverages on a less extreme, albeit similar solution in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 0z Euro is ok for us but stinks everywhere else It is showing a little something though for Tuesday but looks warmish. TUE 06Z 08-FEB 7.0 3.1 1004 84 94 0.06 549 546 TUE 12Z 08-FEB 5.7 -0.6 1007 89 29 0.08 545 540 THU 06Z 10-FEB 4.5 -1.1 1014 81 95 0.04 551 540 THU 12Z 10-FEB 0.8 -6.3 1013 87 90 0.47 548 537 THU 18Z 10-FEB -0.9 -10.1 1018 47 6 0.06 544 529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Monday/Tuesday Mess. Doesn't look like temps will be cold enough nor enough precip to matter. NEXT SYSTM WILL CONSIST OF TWO PARTS. LOW PRS LIFTS THRU THE TN/OH VALLEYS MON...WHILE A CSTL LOW/INVERTED TROUGH MOVS UP THE SE COAST. LTST DATA SUGGESTS MOST OF THE FA REMAINS DRY AS MOST OF THE MSTR GOES INTO CLOUD COVERAGE. LEFT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SERN CNTYS WHERE BEST CHC FOR AFTRN RAIN REMAINS. DRY ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE CLOUDS... DEEP SW FLOW ALLOWS TMPS TO RISE INTO THE M-U50S. FA REMAINS SPLIT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS MON NIGHT. QSTN REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN ACTUALLY FALLS ACROSS CENTRAL VA GIVEN THE TRACK OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE COASTAL LOW AND THUS HAVE INCRSD TO LIKELY POPS THERE. THE STRENGTH OF THE NW/DOWNSLOPE FLOW NIGHT WILL DETERMINE PCPN IS ABLE TO MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL VA...SO HAVE KEPT CHC POPS POPS. UPSHOT...XPCT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF EVENT WITH AMOUNTS AOB ONE TENTH INCH. PCPN ENDS W-E AFTR MIDNITE AS SYSTM PULLS FRTHR E. COME DCRG CLDNS ACROSS THE W LATE. LOWS IN THE 30S. AKQ still thinks mixing will be a problem here .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LTST ECMWF NOW TRENDING MORE TOWARD A GFS SOLN IN MOVG A QUICKER AND FLATTER SYSTM ACROSS THE SRN STATES THEN OFF THE MID ATNLNTC COAST THRU MID WEEK PRD. CONFLUENT UPR LVL PTRN SPRTS A QUICKER SOLN AS THERE IS NO BLOCKING HIGH TO THE N. THIS DOES A COUPLE OF THINGS...1) RESULTS IN A SHORTER TIME FRAME FOR ANY SGNFCNT PCPN TO FALL 2) KEEPS THE BEST LIFT/OMEGA OVR SRN / ERN HALF OF FA AND 3) ALLOWS TMPS TO MODERATE A BIT BRINGING P-TYPE ISSUES FRTHR NW INTO FA. SO FOR NOW...HAVE ADJUSTED WED NITES FCST A BIT AND CAPPED POPS AT 50%. KEPT P-TYPE SNOW XCPT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SERN CNTYS WITH JUST RAIN ALONG CNTYS BRDRG ALBEMARLE SND. KEPT LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS THU MORN AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST LIFT IS PROGGED...THEN LWRD THEM TO CHC POPS IN AFTRN. IF LTST ECMWF IS RIGHT...PCPN QUICKLY ENDS W-E THURS AFTRN AS THE SYSTM PULLS E. KEPT P-TYPE SNOW XCPT FOR BUFFER ZONE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM A WAL-PHF-AKQ- RZZ LINE WITH JUST RAIN FROM HAMPTON ROADS ON S. TMPS IN THE 30S TO NR 40 SE. STILL TOO EARLY TO THINK ABOUT AMOUNTS DUE TO QPF & MIXING ISSUES... BUT A FEW INCHES ARE PSBL IF AND WHERE IT STAYS ALL SNOW. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This is more than likely going to turn out to be a typical 1-3inch slushy event, IMHO. We will see if Euro somehow brings the bomb idea back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Monday/Tuesday Mess. Doesn't look like temps will be cold enough nor enough precip to matter. AKQ still thinks mixing will be a problem here First of all, we need the first storm to stay weak and it will... Forget storm 1. Usually we need 3 days of seperation for sig development to occur, so storm 1 needs to be weak and be a non factor to allow storm 2 a chance to develop. next, as nws points out, there's no anchored high to the north which usually does not bode well for us, but this is somewhat unique in that a strong enough high moves in tandem with the sfc low and is positioned in a favorable spot as the low reaches the coast. I believe most if not all guidance supports an all snow event and I don't agree with the current nws analysis. Things could change certainly, but I think the models have locked on to the genral idea, the key factor is that the tandem high continue to slide east with the sfc low as the models generally show now. If this ARCTIC high is centered over east half of PA as low reaches the coast we will have all snow while DC is just cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 This is more than likely going to turn out to be a typical 1-3inch slushy event, IMHO. We will see if Euro somehow brings the bomb idea back If the cold doesn't hold with a quick, weak, flat system it certainly won't with a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 fwiw TWC now going with 33 and snow on thurs for ORF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 fwiw TWC now going with 33 and snow on thurs for ORF That's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 yea and the new GFS isnt too bad. looks like maybe a 2-3 inch snowfall for southside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 coach, when does your first call map come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 coach, when does your first call map come out? IDK I didn't make one for 12/26 and look how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I can make a map. It won't take long lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 coach, when does your first call map come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 yea and the new GFS isnt too bad. looks like maybe a 2-3 inch snowfall for southside http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KORF&model=gfs&time=2011020612&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Looks like game over for this one. Maybe it will come back like 12/26 but I doubt we could get that lucky again. GFS has been way out front on this one. All the other models playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 12z Euro is a disaster. There is actually more precip on Tuesday! :gun_bandana: Storm Cancel THU 12Z 10-FEB 1.4 -5.3 1019 80 93 0.03 551 536 THU 18Z 10-FEB -0.2 -7.9 1020 51 88 0.06 548 532 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 How often have we been in the bulls eye 3-4 days out only to get shafted? Well, the answer is a whole lot. We are in the perfect spot right now. This thing will make a jog NW and most of us in Hampton Roads will see some snowfall. Maybe not a Dec 26 repeat, but possibly a 4inch event. All this "storm cancel" talk is really unwarranted. Let's wait until this storm pushes through on Tuesday before some of us go jumping off cliffs. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 How often have we been in the bulls eye 3-4 days out only to get shafted? Well, the answer is a whole lot. We are in the perfect spot right now. This thing will make a jog NW and most of us in Hampton Roads will see some snowfall. Maybe not a Dec 26 repeat, but possibly a 4inch event. All this "storm cancel" talk is really unwarranted. Let's wait until this storm pushes through on Tuesday before some of us go jumping off cliffs. Just my 2 cents. I agree. This should shift NW, just have to give it time. Hopefully not too much though. Failed on the weekend storm, maybe I'll fail with my rain for the rest of the year forecast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 18z GFS = flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Still, way too far out to say make or break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Wxrisk.com 0Z NAM THRU 84 HRS HAS BROUGHT BACK THE SNOW ....into portions of NC and se third of VA-- even into the RIC area -- but no further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Expect nothing more than flurries on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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