VAB1 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I have a feeling the Euro wont change too much. Interesting change with the 12Z GFS. I hope it sticks Euro goes much closer to GFS than Canadian. Much further east than yesterday. DT says heavy snow all of VA - not sure if he really meant HR as well but it's certainly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well we go snow to rain to snow verbatim on euro. I am happy the euro followed the gfs. Fun weekend of model watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 What about fooking 84-90 hours!??! Last couple runs have been showing snow Looks warm Its hail bombing sleeting here at odu! WHAT?! Really? I was in the Oceanography building and just walked to Kaufman Hall. I didn't see anything. How long did it last? Euro goes much closer to GFS than Canadian. Much further east than yesterday. DT says heavy snow all of VA - not sure if he really meant HR as well but it's certainly interesting. Reverse psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 hour 90 looks warm? And it was only like 5 minutes but nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 hour 90 looks warm? And it was only like 5 minutes but nice to see Oops I was looking at the wrong run. Its interesting! Darn shame I missed it FWIW Wxrisk.com: Southeast VA quickly goes to all Rain as does Lower MD eastern shore cenhtral VA r/s lin reaches RIC areas to the N and W of RIC stay all snow... BIG snowfall... according tio the Model - NOT MY FORECAST!!-- for sw VA and entire shenandoah into Northern VA and DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS=CHECK, EURO=Half CHECK, JMA= CHECK, 6 days away = CHECK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 138 hours 1000mb over HSE maybe a hair east. Huge hit for NC/Eastern VA up to OC MD ...moderate hit to DC through DE and Southern NJ. Moderate snow falling at that time to about PHL. Signal is beaming if you ask me..awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 1.68"....you get 1.03" in a 6 hour period ending 18z Thursday For ORF....20" inches verbatim...BLACK AND YELLOW BLACK AND YELLOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 :-p Richmond perspective. I don't mind yall getting 15"+ Again... if Richmond can break 10 inches as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 For ORF....20" inches verbatim...BLACK AND YELLOW BLACK AND YELLOW!!! Screw it. If that happens there is no way I am leaving Thursday morning. Too bad 12Z Euro will probably be a rainstorm or something lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 THU 12Z 10-FEB 1.3 -2.1 1015 92 99 0.35 552 540 THU 18Z 10-FEB 0.0 -4.0 1008 91 99 1.03 549 542 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -2.6 -9.4 1016 79 77 0.30 540 528 Sweeet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 00Z FEB05 THU 12Z 10-FEB 1.3 -2.1 1015 92 99 0.35 552 540 THU 18Z 10-FEB 0.0 -4.0 1008 91 99 1.03 549 542 FRI 00Z 11-FEB -2.6 -9.4 1016 79 77 0.30 540 528 Sweeet! What model is that,, Euro?? And for what station? That can't be for around here, you must have entered the station I'd of fantasy land! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 What model is that,, Euro?? And for what station? That can't be for around here, you must have entered the station I'd of fantasy land! . Euro for ORF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow, that's quite a shift south/east. Thickness looks bothersome though for orf. Definite sleet issues with that. But, hey the trend is nice. Thanks for posting that, I'm away from computer so couldn't look myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 06z and 12z GFS hold steady on a storm for ORF. With that heavy of precip I think any boundary issues would be overcome based on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Roadtrip? I am seriously thinking about it if something like this verbatim happens. Wanna come to PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wanna come to PA? LOL Roadtrip now looking like my Backyard!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 New Euro looks beast with Heavy snow before the 0 line reaches ORF then some mix then back to heavy snow. About the only way ORF, RIC and DC all get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 looks like williamsburg could get 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 lol rainstorm... it's 4-5 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 just basing that on the euro by tonight it may show us 50 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wxrisk.com *** ALERT --HUGE ALERT*** 12Z SATURDAY EURO BURIES NC CENTRAL & SOUTHERN AND SE VA WITH HEAVY SNOW... well over 12" of snow... The MODEL shows the biggest snow in RIC since jan 2000/ jan 1996.. yes even se va gets hamemred with a 2nd major snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wxrisk.com *** ALERT --HUGE ALERT*** 12Z SATURDAY EURO BURIES NC CENTRAL & SOUTHERN AND SE VA WITH HEAVY SNOW... well over 12" of snow... The MODEL shows the biggest snow in RIC since jan 2000/ jan 1996.. yes even se va gets hamemred with a 2nd major snowstorm This IMAGE should explain WHY this is looking more and more Like a Midwest Pattern. Like I said HERE and on the web site on WED ....the winter pattern that brought us the BIG NE snowstorms is OVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Does anyone have the qpf output for 12z Euro? 12z GFS doesn't seem to show any really substantial precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Does anyone have the qpf output for 12z Euro? 12z GFS doesn't seem to show any really substantial precip... 1.75" ORF and 1.5" RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Does anyone have the qpf output for 12z Euro? 12z GFS doesn't seem to show any really substantial precip... 12Z Euro For ORF THU 12Z 10-FEB 1.4 -3.4 1022 82 100 0.09 554 537 THU 18Z 10-FEB 2.6 -0.9 1010 98 99 0.91 554 547 FRI 00Z 11-FEB 0.7 -1.7 1007 89 83 0.43 549 543 FRI 06Z 11-FEB -0.6 -2.5 1013 86 27 0.02 552 542 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 GOING CLSR TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROF/SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS LOW DVLPS IN THE WRN GULF CST REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND MOVES ACRS REGION ON THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS LOW...WITH GFS/GEFS INDICATING A FLAT WAVE AND PRECIP BEING LIMITED TO SRN HALF OF CWA. ECMWF MUCH MORE BULLISH...AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS LOW FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE GONE LKLY SNOW NW 3/4THS OF AREA WITH THIS STORM...THEN A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN ACRS MUCH OF NE NC. PRECIP EXPECTED TO END AS SNOW EVERYWHERE LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO START THINKING ABOUT AMOUNTS...BUT ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST WRNG CRITERIA SNOW ACRS MOST OF CWA. STAY TUNED. AFTER THIS LOW DEPARTS...DRY AND COLD FRI/SAT. IF STM MENTIONED ABOVE MATERIALIZES...MIN TEMPS LIKELY TO BE VERY COLD...PERHAPS COLDEST OF THE WINTER...ACRS MUCH OF AREA THU NGT/FRI NGT. THAT WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS. TEMPS IN SNOW COVERED AREAS FRI/SAT WILL HAVE A STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 32 DEGREES...EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUN. wakefield nws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 GOING CLSR TO THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER TROF/SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS LOW DVLPS IN THE WRN GULF CST REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND MOVES ACRS REGION ON THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS LOW...WITH GFS/GEFS INDICATING A FLAT WAVE AND PRECIP BEING LIMITED TO SRN HALF OF CWA. ECMWF MUCH MORE BULLISH...AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS LOW FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. HAVE GONE LKLY SNOW NW 3/4THS OF AREA WITH THIS STORM...THEN A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN ACRS MUCH OF NE NC. PRECIP EXPECTED TO END AS SNOW EVERYWHERE LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO START THINKING ABOUT AMOUNTS...BUT ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST WRNG CRITERIA SNOW ACRS MOST OF CWA. STAY TUNED. AFTER THIS LOW DEPARTS...DRY AND COLD FRI/SAT. IF STM MENTIONED ABOVE MATERIALIZES...MIN TEMPS LIKELY TO BE VERY COLD...PERHAPS COLDEST OF THE WINTER...ACRS MUCH OF AREA THU NGT/FRI NGT. THAT WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS. TEMPS IN SNOW COVERED AREAS FRI/SAT WILL HAVE A STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 32 DEGREES...EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUN. wakefield nws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Still plenty of time for things to go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 NAM showing a little mix/snow late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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