WeSuck Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 06z NAM as people call it is "sick nasty" and sexy for me, Wow, 6z NAM is just beautiful. Very nice! I will stick to my call of 2-4 inches for ORF with local amount of 5 inches away from the water IF BL temps don't create a big problem or the wind doesn't come in off the water for a long period. EDIT: 12z NAM just as nice. I love this. Snow for us and none for DC. Nothing better than that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Well, it's nice to see the thread active again. Water temperature in the mid 40s is making me pretty nervous. Even after our wind shifts more northerly as the low passes to our south, we're not in a cold airmass like we would hope to see. It looks to be one of those changeover events where temperatures hover around or just above freezing and some melting takes place as the snow falls. One thing that would save us is some of that ripping omega that the NAM has moving through around 0z. No doubt, if we want any good snow, we need some decent vertical velocity giving us great rates to overcome the warm boundary layer temps. Low SLRs and recent 60°F temps making for some warm ground are not in our favor either. Right now, I am sticking with Trace-1.5" for most in HR, especially on the southside. Areas up near Williamsburg will probably tag on an extra couple inches to that. Hopefully i'm wrong... either way should be an interesting day ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Light rain in VB and downtown ORF. I'm hoping Becs wins, but my gut tells me McGuirk is going to take this bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 We will be fine. Water temps are always cause for caution around here. Lets just ride this out and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Thinking the GFS has it. Going to say no accums for the beach. Only elevated surfaces, cars, trash cans. Everything just looks to be to fast. Once the colder air comes in pecip may be to light. This is just my opinion, we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Staring out my 21st floor office window in Norfolk thinking I see a really wet snow flake every few moments, then I realize I just have bad vision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 GFS does suck for us. I guess nowcast time is upon us. Overall, I don't see anyone getting more than 5 inches in Central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 GFS does suck for us. I guess nowcast time is upon us. Overall, I don't see anyone getting more than 5 inches in Central VA. Did GFS move north or just showing temp issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishallot Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'm also a little worried about the water temps early on with this NE wind. Lets hope we can get more of a NW wind here soon. Being a fisherman you know I have some good water weather info for the lower bay area, this site is pretty good for current weather conditions on the water in the lower bay. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ports_screens/csscreen.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It seems to shoot the heavy pecip right through us with colder air trailing. Before it looked like we were going to have a 2nd round of pecip with banding setting up. Now like I said it just slugs through our area. Not looking for much in HR. Did GFS move north or just showing temp issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Did GFS move north or just showing temp issues? Temp issues. Good thing is that a lot of OBS are coming out about colder air moving in already out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It seems to shoot the heavy pecip right through us with colder air trailing. Before it looked like we were going to have a 2nd round of pecip with banding setting up. Now like I said it just slugs through our area. Not looking for much in HR. The NAM is still holding for us and its 12 hours away so I will take the NAM here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 The NAM is still holding for us and its 12 hours away so I will take the NAM here Yea, 12Z NAM and 0Z Euro looked pretty good. I'll take those over the GFS anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 definitely noticing a few flakes mixed in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 definitely noticing a few flakes mixed in now. Really? Nothing here in Southern Chesapeake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Where at buddy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'm in my office downtown ORF. 21 stories up. all rain at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 sleeting here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I think we are still on track for a general 1-3 depending on the time of the change over. Most of the short range models show the heavier precip marching east and coming over us at night. Would not be surprised to see isolated pockets of 3+ just west of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 sleeting here Good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 temp is falling. Was 43.1 an hour ago, now 42.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 temp is falling. Was 43.1 an hour ago, now 42.3 Mine has been hovering around 41.6 for the past few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Mine has been hovering around 41.6 for the past few hours I like falling, but 42 ain't going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I like falling, but 42 ain't going to cut it. We will probably see temps slowly fall into the upper 30s to around 40 later this afternoon, but until the wind shifts to a more northerly component, its not going to be nearly enough for anything to stick. Even later tonight Im worried about a 33/34°F snowfall where accumulation depends on if snowfall rates can win out over melting. If you wanna see snow, head out west of 460. With the decent precip expected to move through after sunset, wouldn't be surprised to get several reports of 4-5" out toward Petersburg and Dinwiddie/Nottoway counties. They'll probably get the best combination of forcing and colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 We will probably see temps slowly fall into the upper 30s to around 40 later this afternoon, but until the wind shifts to a more northerly component, its not going to be nearly enough for anything to stick. Even later tonight Im worried about a 33/34°F snowfall where accumulation depends on if snowfall rates can win out over melting. If you wanna see snow, head out west of 460. With the decent precip expected to move through after sunset, wouldn't be surprised to get several reports of 4-5" out toward Petersburg and Dinwiddie/Nottoway counties. They'll probably get the best combination of forcing and colder temps. Yea, that's why I'm watching the temp so closely, going to be a close call. Down to 41.3, so a drop of 1 degree in last 55 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 All rain now but temp slowly dropping. Down to 39.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I'm down to 41.0 here in Chesapeake, north of 64. The new NAM looks impressive for this area. Hoping dynamics will help overcome boundary layer temp down here early tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Must be some mean dry air filtering into SE Va somewhere....it's barely doing anything here in the Southampton County area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 New NAM is vicious with heavy precip tonight. If that happens, we may do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Back to sleet, 38.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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