D-Money Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That's what usually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEM ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONT THAT IS OFF THE EAST COAST. THE 06Z GFS HAD A WEAK WAVE FORM OUT AT SEAS WITH NO IMPACT ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE 12Z GFS FORMS A LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF...WHICH AT LEAST BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...LIFTS THE LOW UP THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH ENOUGH WARM AIR FOR RAIN. AT THIS POINT...HAVE TRENDED ALONG WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST ENOUGH THAT THE FCST REMAINS DRY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT COULD STILL AFFECT CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND. Going with the classic warm/wet cool/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Lol @ snowfall forecast for weekend threat. Yes all solutions from a range of just on the coast to out to sea are all in the cards with this threat. The lol dgex has been the most aggressive threat for this system with 4 out of the 5 last runs bringing this system up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Lol @ snowfall forecast for weekend threat. Yes all solutions from a range of just on the coast to out to sea are all in the cards with this threat. The lol dgex has been the most aggressive threat for this system with 4 out of the 5 last runs bringing this system up the coast. Can't do anything else but laugh at that map I made. I think its a decent first guess though. Really only good thing about it is that it sparked some discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS brings low close to coast and thus rain. game and winter over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 But... but... my map! I made a map! Now its a rain storm. Guess I'll kick the ladder out from underneath me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 plenty o time for changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 plenty o time for changes Plenty of time for more rain. We got our big storm. I'm very pleased with this winter season. It's not often you get 15 inches from one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well that was nice while it lasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011013012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr double barreled low + no high pressure=rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well that was nice while it lasted Yep, it was fun. We got our storm. No one can complain here. I will officially say for the rest of the year all the way to December. Just can't lock the cold in. But I will say this, still keeping an eye on weekend storm. There is hope for my map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Maybe we can get some action in late February/early March. Done after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Getting the grill out for Wednesday...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yep. grill out and shorts on for Wednesday. Would be a great beach day if it wasn't going to rain Probably will hit 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So now I have to look between two threads? We're all in the same cwa, might as well keep one thread. I never though I would say this.... but I severely envy yalls 70°F on Wednesday. It would be nice to finally see some green grass, warm temps, and severe season this spring. But yet i'm sitting here waiting for the 2nd ice storm of the season. * ACCUMULATIONS: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER TO AROUND HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Man, I would love to be in Chicago, IL right now experiencing the blizzard. I guess I will try and find some live streaming news channels from the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Man, I would love to be in Chicago, IL right now experiencing the blizzard. I guess I will try and find some live streaming news channels from the area. I do too. But. we already got our 14-15 inch snow storm. I'm really loving the 70 for a high tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Man, I would love to be in Chicago, IL right now experiencing the blizzard. I guess I will try and find some live streaming news channels from the area. METAR KMDW 020351Z AUTO 05026G49KT 1/16SM R31C/1200V2200FT +TSSNGS BLSN FZFG OVC001CB M06/M08 A2969 RMK AO2 PK WND 04049/0347 TSB04E17B36GSB46 SLP069 OCNL LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV N SNINCR 1/11 T10611078 PNO $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 168-180hours on 00z GFS is something to watch I guess, Looks like a nice arctic front with crashing 850's...Keep us busy maybe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Well this morning's 06z GFS Looks Better! We have a 1063 mb HP drop into the Rockies and develop a large Arctic front with a LP moving up it with crashing 850's just in time. Check it out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 that would ideal if it actually happened. my guess is it will be just a frontal passage with a few showers. hopefully, it will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 will the feb09 CoastalBecs storm happen? stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 will the feb09 CoastalBecs storm happen? stay tuned. Well the thing we have going for us is such a strong HP diving out west to create the arctic front thus allowing a storm to move up along it. Could be the best chance we have for a storm now. Lets watch this one get pulled out from under us as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Hope on the Euro as well. A little further out than the GFS but, hey it's something. http://www.ecmwf.int...0200!!chart.gif http://www.ecmwf.int...0200!!chart.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12z GFS. Probably some super ratios with 850s around -10C during the event. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p36_180l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 At school in class, can you post the 162 and 168 hr surface maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12z Euro comes in huge for day 8-9. I know, day 8-9 but it's the Euro Precip: http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/getchart/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!192!North%20America!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2011020212!!chart.gif http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/getchart/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!204!North%20America!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2011020212!!chart.gif 850s: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011020212!!chart.gif http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011020212!!chart.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12z Euro comes in huge for day 8-9. I know, day 8-9 but it's the Euro Precip: http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/getchart/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!192!North%20America!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2011020212!!chart.gif http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/getchart/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!204!North%20America!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2011020212!!chart.gif 850s: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011020212!!chart.gif http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011020212!!chart.gif I fooking love my life! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 When we hit the 60s and 70s there usually is a nice chance for some snow close by. Its way far out but I feel a lot better about this storm than any other since Dec26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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