Billabong Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Can anyone post the accumulated precip? It will take some time for the entire column to moisten up.... most of the precip during that hour is not yet making it to the ground. It doesn't start cranking until after hour 12. Twisterdata only goes out to 12 hours. Looking at Bufkit, the total precip through 18 hours for Norfolk is about 0.2", or 2" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voodoosnowgoddess Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 It will take some time for the entire column to moisten up.... most of the precip during that hour is not yet making it to the ground. It doesn't start cranking until after hour 12. Twisterdata only goes out to 12 hours. Looking at Bufkit, the total precip through 18 hours for Norfolk is about 0.2", or 2" snow. Would you mind posting bufkit data for RIC? I know I'm in the HR thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Would you mind posting bufkit data for RIC? I know I'm in the HR thread. I would post more details, but im running short on time. But RUC for Richmond has flurries by 4z, light snow for a couple hours, and flurries after. 0.5" snow. Not a big fan of using RUC after 12 hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I would post more details, but im running short on time. But RUC for Richmond has flurries by 4z, light snow for a couple hours, and flurries after. 0.5" snow. Not a big fan of using RUC after 12 hours though. 17z RUC through 11z tomorrow has ... RIC .04" ORF .21" ECG .27" I find RUC to be underdone most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 17z RUC through 11z tomorrow has ... RIC .04" ORF .21" ECG .27" I find RUC to be underdone most of the time. 18z came out right after i posted the 17z. Take 17z totals and cut to a 1/3 (except ECG, which is .20"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Going to be fun to see which model has it right in the short term. 12z GFS.... RIC .11" ORF .34" ECG .54" ONX .67" 12z NAM RIC .02" ORF .06" ECG .16" ONX .32" 12z Euro RIC .03" ORF .07" ECG .09" ONX .11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 18z came out right after i posted the 17z. Take 17z totals and cut to a 1/3 (except ECG, which is .20"). Hate the 18z RUC. Can't wait for the 19z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 15z SREF has HR squarely in the .25" contour.... the .50" contour nudges above border.... Pungo could be the big VA winner. Very tight shutoff nw HR still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Hate the 18z RUC. Can't wait for the 19z! LOL. Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Hate the 18z RUC. Can't wait for the 19z! LOL. Me too. See now you're just torturing yourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Someone throw these Debbie downers out of this thread! lol and I know not to use ensemble output, just trying to get everyone excited for the big letdown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 advisory just issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 302 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011 VAZ095>098-100415- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0006.110210T0300Z-110210T1500Z/ NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH- 302 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY. * AREAS AFFECTED: FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA * PRECIPITATION TYPES: SNOW * ACCUMULATION: 1 TO 2 INCHES...LOCALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHESAPEAKE AND VIRGINIA BEACH. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN 10 PM THIS EVENING AND 2 AM THURSDAY...WITH THE SNOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM EST THURSDAY. * TEMPERATURES: UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S DURING THE EVENT. * IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...IMPACTING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Someone throw these Debbie downers out of this thread! lol and I know not to use ensemble output, just trying to get everyone excited for the big letdown! Other than maybe VBSurf. I've been patient and "trusting" of this storm the whole time. . I always thought there woul be an event, while others touted it as a "bust" and "canceled storm". Just posting model output so maybe we can "score" how the models perform. 18z NAM sticks to it's guns and looks very similar to 12z. I still think 12z GFS is correct which is similar to what it had on it's runs this past weekend. I've been saying all week that I thought the GFS would converge back to that solution and that this will be the end result. I'm still sticking to that for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 huh? i have been calling for 2-3" for atleast 2 days. you may want to read back a few pages there sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Hey Coach, you have $20 bucks to spare? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 huh? i have been calling for 2-3" for atleast 2 days. you may want to read back a few pages there sir. read my post again... I said other than "VBSurf"! I remember! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ruc/255/maps/2011/02/09/19/RUC_255_2011020919_F09_CREF_SURFACE.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 after further review of 18z NAM it's a little further NW with the .25"-.50" contour. You have to zoom in so much on these tight gradients! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 http://www.twisterda...REF_SURFACE.png Can't believe MQI is the place to be,,, again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 haha I understand now! appreciate it man. storms love to overperform when they hit the area off Hatteras and when I saw the idea of the low in that position I knew it would flip back and forth but ultimately we will get atleast a couple tenths of precip. good luck to everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Hey Coach, you have $20 bucks to spare? lol If I had to guess, ORF gets less than 2 inches. But I have little confidence in that prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 15Z average QPF output for ORF is .47". With a high of .84" and low of .18". This is quite a stark difference from the 3z run (didn't get a chance to look close at 9z), which had several members showing 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 If I had to guess, ORF gets less than 2 inches. But I have little confidence in that prediction. I agree, an inch to inch and a half is about what im expecting...Who knows though, its pretty much a nowcast situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 15Z average QPF output for ORF is .47". With a high of .84" and low of .18". This is quite a stark difference from the 3z run (didn't get a chance to look close at 9z), which had several members showing 0. .47 would be 3-5 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Good Luck! At a minimum, hopefully this gets ORF to 20" officially! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 .47 would be 3-5 at least. I've been saying .30-.50".... So, I like that. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Best this thing has looked yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Best this thing has looked yet Almost as if we drew that thing! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 that looks like 2-4 even for the coach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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