ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'd feel better if the GFS was a complete miss right now I think I def think there is a threat of sleet/ice contamination given the long wave setup, but with such an arctic frigid airmass in place, it gives us more room for error than if "merely" a typical cold January airmass was in place. As long as we don't get a monster phased system in the middle of the country, we'll stay all frozen. It could be like those Jan '94 events where we get mostly snow but some sleet taint at the height, and more sleet the further south you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I try not to tempt the beast with weak restraints. I actually really like the overall setup for this next threat... it's a little dicey, but there seems to be a decent enough brick wall to the north in play to keep things frozen. Ryan is going. Yeah I think all snow is the way to lean..though we have to be careful on how far north the primary gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Right; which is why there's an inherent risk of a correction of sorts which drifts back towards the norm. Yea, my "climo is going to intervene at some point" caveat.....agreed, but I'd be suprised if it was next week with the magnitude of that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Was it you who called a MA pike zone jackpot....that may end up being a nice call. its early but yeah, thats just going off what we have currently nice balance here between a +NAO and a monstrous PV i feel its not an MA special/supressiion unless the energy out west trends into garbage ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ive already heard the media banging the drum for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Ryan is going. Yeah I think all snow is the way to lean..though we have to be careful on how far north the primary gets I can't make it to the get-together this weekend. Enjoy the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ive already heard the media banging the drum for this one. Page 1 on accuweather, groundhog day storm may affect more than 100 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The system is leaving some energy behind in the southwest which helps to avoid an early phase in the southern plains. Even in a weakened state, the initial low should be plenty juiced up once it gets some inflow off the gulf. I am expecting more severe wx like the last one. Plus the energy left behind may help give us SWFE after the initial storm departs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I wasn't in New England in 93-94. I was just NW of Philly, and had a ton of ice (though a good deal of snow, too). Anyone know how this part of CT did? Were we too far south to stay mostly snow in the overrunning events? Thanks. On a separate note, I guess accuweather is a 24/7 hype machine. I've been on a mission to get my friends and colleagues to use weather.gov instead of weather.com, etc, for years, but didn't realize just how sensational accuweather was. I thought they were just wrong and oversimplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The system is leaving some energy behind in the southwest which helps to avoid an early phase in the southern plains. Even in a weakened state, the initial low should be plenty juiced up once it gets some inflow off the gulf. I am expecting more severe wx like the last one. Plus the energy left behind may help give us SWFE after the initial storm departs There is a bit of a SE ridge that develops...the SE is going to be warm and humid with plenty of fuel to feed whatever system develops in the middle of the country and into the OH Valley...huge N-S thermal gradient developing ahead of that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I wasn't in New England in 93-94. I was just NW of Philly, and had a ton of ice (though a good deal of snow, too). Anyone know how this part of CT did? Were we too far south to stay mostly snow in the overrunning events? Thanks. On a separate note, I guess accuweather is a 24/7 hype machine. I've been on a mission to get my friends and colleagues to use weather.gov instead of weather.com, etc, for years, but didn't realize just how sensational accuweather was. I thought they were just wrong and oversimplified. 93-94 was just about on par with 95-96 in southern CT including two back-to-back 12" storms in February. It was an incredible winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Nice little last second coastal cyclogenesis to enhance the event. AWT,ha, it's just one of those years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z gefs looks pretty similar to the op for mid-week. maybe a smidge south or colder but nothing hugely different. any of the stuff on RADAR reaching the ground or just virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 AWT,ha, it's just one of those years It sure is and you can lock it right now, You guys get hit, We get fringed and vin toot gets cirrus......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z gefs looks pretty similar to the op for mid-week. maybe a smidge south or colder but nothing hugely different. any of the stuff on RADAR reaching the ground or just virga? Its reaching...light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 93-94 was just about on par with 95-96 in southern CT including two back-to-back 12" storms in February. It was an incredible winter! Thanks. Wow. I had just moved back to CT in the fall of 95 (southern Litchfield Co.) Start to finish, it's hard to image how that winter will ever be topped, though this January might have Jan. 96 topped due to the consistent cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Its reaching...light snow cool. both nam/gfs swing some flurries/light snow across most of the area this afternoon / evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Thanks. Wow. I had just moved back to CT in the fall of 95 (southern Litchfield Co.) Start to finish, it's hard to image how that winter will ever be topped, though this January might have Jan. 96 topped due to the consistent cold. Yeah, and 93-94 was pretty close to topping it... especially in southern CT. The extreme cold in 94 kept the snowpack around for a long time much like this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I wasn't in New England in 93-94. I was just NW of Philly, and had a ton of ice (though a good deal of snow, too). Anyone know how this part of CT did? Were we too far south to stay mostly snow in the overrunning events? Thanks. On a separate note, I guess accuweather is a 24/7 hype machine. I've been on a mission to get my friends and colleagues to use weather.gov instead of weather.com, etc, for years, but didn't realize just how sensational accuweather was. I thought they were just wrong and oversimplified. Outstanding, lots of ice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GGEM looks to come in line w/ the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 cool. both nam/gfs swing some flurries/light snow across most of the area this afternoon / evening. It just wants to snow down that way. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Canadian looks like a long overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ive already heard the media banging the drum for this one. ya its getting quite annoying... its like anytime they see snow in the 5day forecast now they expect it to be a big one and go tell all their friends another blizzard is coming.. so i just keep on downplaying everything because everywhere i go all i hear "so i hear we are getting another big storm wednesday" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Canadian looks like a long overrunning event. When you guys say overrunning event...what do you mean? Is that a good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ya its getting quite annoying... its like anytime they see snow in the 5day forecast now they expect it to be a big one and go tell all their friends another blizzard is coming.. so i just keep on downplaying everything because everywhere i go all i hear "so i hear we are getting another big storm wednesday" Yup, I already had an HVAC company cancel an appointment on me forTuesday and rescheduled it to Thursday "due to weather". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 When you guys say overrunning event...what do you mean? Is that a good thing? Overrunning occurs when warm air flows, or runs, over cold air at the earth's surface, resulting in clouds thickening and dropping precipitation. Overrunning happens mostly during the winter when shallow domes of cold air are more abundant. Summer's warmth makes overrunning less important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ya its getting quite annoying... its like anytime they see snow in the 5day forecast now they expect it to be a big one and go tell all their friends another blizzard is coming.. so i just keep on downplaying everything because everywhere i go all i hear "so i hear we are getting another big storm wednesday" It's the same syndrome we saw with hurricanes after 2004/2005. Media kept sniffing out the next WIlma/Katrina tragedy with each named storm. Once the seasons died down, they lose interest. Once we go back to a '06-'07 style debacle, they'll beat the drum on global warming instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Nice to see the GGEM trend away from the wrapped up GL storm it had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 my bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 my bad... Not at all. Good question to ask. They can be quite prolific snow producers too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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