ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Gonna be some pingers with that setup. They might stay south of us....but yeah, its not a classic coastal snowstorm setup...its def a SWFE maybe trying to turn into a miller B if everything goes right. The vortex is so powerful though that we might stay all snow. Setup could change though as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the epic winter for most of ct and nyc metro but does anyone else think its strange that kjfk has only 38 inches for the season and everyone else around them has fifty to sixty plus?? is there something going on with their measurements? LGA, the closest major station has 46.4 I think. Since LGA is on the north shore and JFK is on the south, that difference is plausible. And since KNYC (Central Park) and EWR got into a better CCB with the 12/26 event, the differences are not unreasonable. You can make the same argument for BOS and other nearby stations some years but much less so this year due to banding circumstances and the minimal taint experienced on the coast north of PYM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 LGA, the closest major station has 46.4 I think. Since LGA is on the north shore and JFK is on the south, that difference is plausible. And since KNYC (Central Park) and EWR got into a better CCB with the 12/26 event, the differences are not unreasonable. You can make the same argument for BOS and other nearby stations some years but much less so this year due to banding circumstances and the minimal taint experienced on the coast north of PYM. JFK is having bad measurements, I am just to the west of them and have 50-55 inches this year. Spotter reports from the north, west, and east of the airport do not mesh at all with the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 JFK is having bad measurements, I am just to the west of them and have 50-55 inches this year. Spotter reports from the north, west, and east of the airport do not mesh at all with the airport. That seems to happen from time to time at these locations using contract observers. BOS used to be famous for that but it seems more normal now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 That seems to happen from time to time at these locations using contract observers. BOS used to be famous for that but it seems more normal now. BOS has been pretty good the last few years...they had some trouble back in the early 2000s...they grossly over measured PDII and then under measured Jan 2005 blizzard...but it seems since then they have been pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Will - comments on long range temps? Cursory look at the 6z op gfs looked pretty cold throughout - What are the signals on the ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Will - comments on long range temps? Cursory look at the 6z op gfs looked pretty cold throughout - What are the signals on the ECMWF? Euro ensemble mean keeps us cold throughout....the warmest we get is probably any threatening taint from the Feb 2-3 event. Looks like the ridge in the west retrogrades to more of a classic -EPO position for W AK and the Aleutions while the PNA starts to go negative....we keep a big vortex in the Davis Straight region at times extended toward SE CAnada....that -PNA pattern in conjunction with the Canadian pattern would signal that we could get a lot of overrunning type events where a sharper latitude gradient sets up. Obviously that is a ways out and the setup can change a bit, but we'll probably see some more interesting type OH Valley/Lakes activity given the +NAO and -PNA...the extreme cold though in Canada and filtering down into NE would give us plenty of chances though at staying all frozen or snow ala 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro ensemble mean keeps us cold throughout....the warmest we get is probably any threatening taint from the Feb 2-3 event. Looks like the ridge in the west retrogrades to more of a classic -EPO position for W AK and the Aleutions while the PNA starts to go negative....we keep a big vortex in the Davis Straight region at times extended toward SE CAnada....that -PNA pattern in conjunction with the Canadian pattern would signal that we could get a lot of overrunning type events where a sharper latitude gradient sets up. Obviously that is a ways out and the setup can change a bit, but we'll probably see some more interesting type OH Valley/Lakes activity given the +NAO and -PNA...the extreme cold though in Canada and filtering down into NE would give us plenty of chances though at staying all frozen or snow ala 1994. That is essentially what I've hoped (and even thought) would happen after the blocking waned. This is a wall to wall winter we are in and every set up is delivering cold and snow. Sure a little warmup may slip in but i expect no big thaw until late March or early April at which point we may go to a nice early spring. My thinking is that after this bout with 93-94 the blocking returns, we get another blockbuster or two and maybe a dry period up here (but less likely late in the season I think). I think there is a huge phase change/pattern change storm in mid to late March and then spring. I know that is a weenie forecast but I think it is backed by some evidence, and by the won't be denied seige of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro is a classic snowstorm next week..as we get the primary into sw Ohio and a center jump to off Jersey shore..Classic Miller B for us next week. This one looks big I come here just for Kevin's analysis. I even added him on facebook so I could get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 From BTV's long range discussion this morning: http://forecast.weat...FD&issuedby=BTV BY WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENTWITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OUT OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY REGION AND TRACKING NORTHEAST JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS WITH PAST STORMS THIS YEAR...THE BEST DYNAMICS AND QPF ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE REGION...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DECENT 3-6" OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT SO STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 LGA, the closest major station has 46.4 I think. Since LGA is on the north shore and JFK is on the south, that difference is plausible. And since KNYC (Central Park) and EWR got into a better CCB with the 12/26 event, the differences are not unreasonable. You can make the same argument for BOS and other nearby stations some years but much less so this year due to banding circumstances and the minimal taint experienced on the coast north of PYM. Jerry JFK's number is bogus. A-L-E-X and I live very close to JFK (and to each other)....He has 55" for the year and I have 51" or so....Dont believe there total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like a miller b setup to me. The key is how far north does the primary get..If it stays in KY or southern Ohio before the transfer..we'd stay all snow..If it gets up near PIT, we'd flip to ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Jerry JFK's number is bogus. A-L-E-X and I live very close to JFK (and to each other)....He has 55" for the year and I have 51" or so....Dont believe there total. How many of the giant storms that you guys have had down there have you observed rates over 3in/hr? I know its east of you but i believe isp has had rates of five in/hr in one storm and six in/hr in another recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like a miller b setup to me. The key is how far north does the primary get..If it stays in KY or southern Ohio before the transfer..we'd stay all snow..If it gets up near PIT, we'd flip to ice Way early but this has mid level warmth issues written on it - sort of like last weeks front end thump followed by hours of pingers and ice. Hopefully that stuff doesn't make it quite as far north this time. if it does it will be a good test for the integrity of peoples roofs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spit Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like a miller b setup to me. The key is how far north does the primary get..If it stays in KY or southern Ohio before the transfer..we'd stay all snow..If it gets up near PIT, we'd flip to ice Reguardless, it would seem that it will be a net gain. I'm starting to push everything back,,,, again! Got to love SNE or better move this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Way early but this has mid level warmth issues written on it - sort of like last weeks front end thump followed by hours of pingers and ice. Hopefully that stuff doesn't make it quite as far north this time. if it does it will be a good test for the integrity of peoples roofs. What is your total for the season to date up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Steven Dimartino this weather person is good from new york city . He said no lake cutter next week to much cold air and snow pack in the northeast . read his discussion today . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 What is your total for the season to date up there? 42" but I need to check my notes b/c there were so many little events I want to be sure I'm not missing anything or over counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Steven Dimartino this weather person is good from new york city . He said no lake cutter next week to much cold air and snow pack in the northeast . read his discussion today . I'd probably lean against a lakes cutter too, but they can happen with plenty of snow on the ground and cold air over the northeast...January 28, 1994...best example I can think of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 LGA, the closest major station has 46.4 I think. Since LGA is on the north shore and JFK is on the south, that difference is plausible. And since KNYC (Central Park) and EWR got into a better CCB with the 12/26 event, the differences are not unreasonable. You can make the same argument for BOS and other nearby stations some years but much less so this year due to banding circumstances and the minimal taint experienced on the coast north of PYM. Every other spot immediately around JFK reported 16-18" of snow from yesterday morning's event while they only reported 10", and they in general have been lower to significantly lower than surrounding spots, even on the south shore. JFK also measures on a rooftop. I can tell you I've had way more than 37" so far and if anything I'm in an even more unfavorable area for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'd probably lean against a lakes cutter too, but they can happen with plenty of snow on the ground and cold air over the northeast...January 28, 1994...best example I can think of. How about jan 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 How about jan 96? Well we had wiped out the cold airmass by the time the first lakes cutter was forming on Jan 19, 1996. It had been in the 50s the few days leading up to it if you recall. We started melting that epic snow pack several days before the lakes cutter. This one would be more like Jan 28, 1994 if it became a lakes cutter I think because we are going to have a frigid airmass over us in the couple days leading up to it. Its probably going to be more of an overrunning event where sleet/ice is an issue if it tries to track west (sfc then reforms S of LI). But there's also a chance we never get ptype issues and we stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well we had wiped out the cold airmass by the time the first lakes cutter was forming on Jan 19, 1996. It had been in the 50s the few days leading up to it if you recall. We started melting that epic snow pack several days before the lakes cutter. This one would be more like Jan 28, 1994 if it became a lakes cutter I think because we are going to have a frigid airmass over us in the couple days leading up to it. Its probably going to be more of an overrunning event where sleet/ice is an issue if it tries to track west (sfc then reforms S of LI). But there's also a chance we never get ptype issues and we stay all snow. Yea I was going to say 96 was torched well before the rain storm. I agree with those who say this is a Miller B and cold. Again will come down to day of, wether this is huge QPF machine. Maybe just a SWFE but right now I would go with explosive cyclo over the Delmarva Jersey coast. Amazing as it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The 12z NAM at 84 hours has -45C 850 temps over northern Quebec. I'm not sure I've ever seen that before. I've seen maybe -40C to -42C before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The 12z NAM at 84 hours has -45C 850 temps over northern Quebec. I'm not sure I've ever seen that before. I've seen maybe -40C to -42C before. Can you imagine being under that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The 12z NAM at 84 hours has -45C 850 temps over northern Quebec. I'm not sure I've ever seen that before. I've seen maybe -40C to -42C before. Man with that type of ridging and cold..anything that even sniffs an attempt at a lake cut will get squashed south faster than Wiz can down a 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The 12z NAM at 84 hours has -45C 850 temps over northern Quebec. I'm not sure I've ever seen that before. I've seen maybe -40C to -42C before. Sounding fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The 12z NAM at 84 hours has -45C 850 temps over northern Quebec. I'm not sure I've ever seen that before. I've seen maybe -40C to -42C before. yeah i saw that. amazing stuff. plenty of time for the pattern to evolve i suppose...but i suspect this mid-week event is going to have a remarkably hard time doing anything other than moving out underneath SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Sounding fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Sounding fail The -45C temps actually form around 48h in NW Quebec and last until the end of the run as they slowly move E. I was hoping one of those hours in between would show a -48C contour, it looks like it might get close around 60 or 66h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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