dendrite Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Don't like the looks of this run. Looks a bit like the GGEM. Primary heading up toward the western Lakes and then transitioning eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Moderate snow event for NNE. Snow to rain for SNE and probably some ice for the interior with that exiting high trying to keep a nose in. Basically a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 FUGLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 FUGLY. GFS ens were better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'll take a SWFE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS ens were better. The fact that the GFS and it's esnembles are giving us a good hit at this range doesn't make me feel any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 UK is in the GEM\EURO camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 with tonights modeling trending towards a stronger phase out west, this thing would have gone too minnesota if it wasnt for the PV /and hi pressure in the plains ridging down, lol but its all messed up the way energy gets lagging in the west, other models are showing it too.....unlikely to play out that way i would think but who knows i guess. as Wiz said lots to be resolved of course at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 There's a nice banana hammock high stretching from the N Plains to NE ahead of the system. The low levels should stay fairly cold over the interior. You're close to all snow this run Ray....maybe a little taint if the warmest layer is above H85. It's still a handful of days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 that PV is really going to save the day with tonights modeling trending towards a stronger phase out west, this thing would have gone too minnesota if it wasnt for the PV, lol but its all messed up the way energy gets lagging in the west, other models are showing it too.....unlikely to play out that way i would think but who knows i guess. as Wiz said lots to be resolved of course at this range. I agree.....it will save us int the lower levels entirely in the interior and for the most part near the coast, but the mid levels maybe more difficult to salvage. N of the NH border looks to be mainly snow ont he EURO and I'd get a good 3" before the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 There's a nice banana hammock high stretching from the N Plains to NE ahead of the system. The low levels should stay fairly cold over the interior. You're close to all snow this run Ray....maybe a little taint if the warmest layer is above H85. It's still a handful of days away. I agree.....it will save us int the lower levels entirely in the interior and for the most part near the coast, but the mid levels maybe more difficult to salvage. N of the NH border looks to be mainly snow ont he EURO and I'd get a good 3" before the flip. Yea, I just closely examined the run....classic SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 if the euro's bias of holding energy too far back in the southwest is true in this case, then this will look like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Wasn't the euro at one point (or at least for one run) a cutter (or something similar) for this past system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 There's alot of potential here given the seasonal tendency for lower heights over Southeast Canada. It's literally been a parade of shortwave energy across that area. The last system just a day or two ago was helped considerably by the shortwave that came through a few days earlier (bringing a light snow to many areas), as it lowered the heights and suppressed the flow over Southeast Canada and New England. Whenever I see any type of significant southern stream trough over the Southwest United States in the upper air pattern we are in now...my eyes start to glimmer. A lot of this will come down to the northern stream interaction and exact intricacies of the mid and upper level flow, as you can see in the variance between the 12/18/00 z GFS runs from today. All of them had different solutions, owing to the timing and juxtaposition of southern and northern stream timing and interactions; but I think the PNA and EPO, as well as the PV positioned in East and Northeast Canada could really light this potential up, big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro is a classic snowstorm next week..as we get the primary into sw Ohio and a center jump to off Jersey shore..Classic Miller B for us next week. This one looks big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro is a classic snowstorm next week..as we get the primary into sw Ohio and a center jump to off Jersey shore..Classic Miller B for us next week. This one looks big 06z GFS is on board as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 They are removing snowbanks from Brookline Village and Coolidge Corner. Disaster. call in the weenie troops for a protest '60s style? "Hell no, we want snow!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS shifts north nicely for the midweek event and then drops an arctic high over NE Thu night/Fri morning. It gives me 2m temps of -30C. just when i thought the peach trees were safe! What does that translate to at the surface? Brian you going to gtg? i am driving and coming home not too late if you need a ride. It does look like a more north solution on this storm...thats been my feeling. blocking not strong to supress but plenty of cold to feed in. Perhaps this is the year when we in snh/cnh do wee with storms from the south and also those that go north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Alot will determine phasing likely, if the southern stream and the northern stream phase too early then we can certainly see a cutter like scenario, however, notice the series of high pressures back over the northern Plains and sliding down from Canada, whatever happens here could help and try to push this more eastward, disallowing a cutter like scenario. I could potentially see some sort of overrunning type thing but I think we would see something similar to this past event with that regards. Still plenty of time to work things out though! or redevelopment along the coast from a swfe. i believe 93-94 had this set up with storms runnning up to our west then being forced to redevelop along the coast...giving me a few inches of snow to ice and rain in philly while ttn north was getting snow and more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Moderate snow event for NNE. Snow to rain for SNE and probably some ice for the interior with that exiting high trying to keep a nose in. Basically a SWFE. hpc thinks euro went too far and likes its 12z ensemb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I agree.....it will save us int the lower levels entirely in the interior and for the most part near the coast, but the mid levels maybe more difficult to salvage. N of the NH border looks to be mainly snow ont he EURO and I'd get a good 3" before the flip. ending with a net gain or slight loss and great crust for the next round for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Extended Forecast: Snow,cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Extended Forecast: Snow,cold AWT BWIOCoTFTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro next week is pretty cold at the surface all the way to the BOS-PVD area. So verbatim it is snow to sleet. I suspect like this week's modeling last weekend on the Euro that the cold surface is signaling a cold overall solution. Another snow event on tap next week. Honestly we're out of space. I am probably taking a chance storing some in a corner of my deck. I'm going to look structurally underneath and consider moving snow over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 SWFE or Miller B does not matter as long as we get snow out of it...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ECMWF ensemble mean brings the D6 low up near Cincinnati and then redevelops it over NJ and goes just S of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ECMWF ensemble mean brings the D6 low up near Cincinnati and then redevelops it over NJ and goes just S of LI 1993-94 style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the epic winter for most of ct and nyc metro but does anyone else think its strange that kjfk has only 38 inches for the season and everyone else around them has fifty to sixty plus?? is there something going on with their measurements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ECMWF ensemble mean brings the D6 low up near Cincinnati and then redevelops it over NJ and goes just S of LI Gonna be some pingers with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i am still looking for thundersnow and rates over three inches an hr in an event here...i want all the fun ct and ny metro has been getting too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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