weatherMA Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Pike would be my guess. Agreed. I love those storms where 5 miles south are pinging and Im still getting 1"/hour snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The 1000-500 thicknesses never get all that warm either...maybe 546dm to the pike at 102h....and the sfc temps are nasty cold. The euro signaling a ton of cold air to overcome. This is what we kind of saw as a red flag last week too when the sfc was so cold and it was trying to drive the sleet line into CNE with that coastal. Its a bit of a different setup, but the very general theme isn't too different, we have a high in a decent location and a lot of confluence and gradient to overcome...so there's definitely some room for a colder look. At any rate, its a heck of a battle to watch unfold over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 QPF seems like maybe 1-1.5" or so?? You SV peeps pull out the weenie qpf maps if you could. Nice long duration event. I'm sure there would be lingering light snows after the appetizer leaves. It cut back from 00z. 1"+ MHT south for all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's interesting that the warmer air comes in a little quicker on the 12z run, but then slows right at the Pike and creeps to ASH. On 00z, it flew right into Dendrites fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Massive power outages? Oopsie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The 1000-500 thicknesses never get all that warm either...maybe 546dm to the pike at 102h....and the sfc temps are nasty cold. The euro signaling a ton of cold air to overcome. This is what we kind of saw as a red flag last week too when the sfc was so cold and it was trying to drive the sleet line into CNE with that coastal. Its a bit of a different setup, but the very general theme isn't too different, we have a high in a decent location and a lot of confluence and gradient to overcome...so there's definitely some room for a colder look. At any rate, its a heck of a battle to watch unfold over the next couple days. I thought about that as well. Look how the 850 temps just came to a halt near the Pike and then creeped north. A lot of arctic air here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Would the GFS/ECM be more of a ZR or IP threat in CT? Is the isothermal layer deep enough that we don't have to worry about freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's interesting that the warmer air comes in a little quicker on the 12z run, but then slows right at the Pike and creeps to ASH. On 00z, it flew right into Dendrites fanny. That air mass to the north and confluence isn't just your typical cold airmass....its serious business. When you have -40C 850 temps in Quebec and -20C just N the border, its got some punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Quick statement on the teleconnections: The well clustered PNA dive of recent CPC computations was suddenly mop-ended last night. That means there is some unrest evolving in the individual GFS members regarding what the PNA index will actually be nearing D10. This puts dent in the confidence for a warmup of Pac origin. This same mop-ended output took place with the previously well-agreed upon NAO - so too enters some uncertainty wrt to the actual phase state of the NAO. It was mentioned very early in this thread that the polar field indices have upon several occasions modeled to rise ...only to correct toward neutral and/or even negative - perhaps this disconcerted output last night is another correction taking place in the ensembles. Also, the EPO going negative also puts a monkey-wrench in the warm thinking.... I tell you what - if the EPO is negative and the PNA is closer to neutral (as well as the NAO), then finally we may get a La Nina icer - pure speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's interesting that the warmer air comes in a little quicker on the 12z run, but then slows right at the Pike and creeps to ASH. On 00z, it flew right into Dendrites fanny. Yeah...I'm fine with this run. I'd prefer not to flirt with pingers.QPF this run was less juicy past 96hr. Hopefully we see it pick up with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That air mass to the north and confluence isn't just your typical cold airmass....its serious business. When you have -40C 850 temps in Quebec and -20C just N the border, its got some punch. For sure. The whole source region near Maine is frigid too, which I like to see for my locale, before a big storm. It did look like the confluence from hr 54-78 or so was a little better on this run. That's why I posted that the PV was trying with all its might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You know its an awesome winter when people are hoping 1"+ qpf can trend juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 AWT folks..south, cold trend has begun. BTW plow came by again..and I had to shovel end of driveway again..so I'm just leaving now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 And oh yeah...it's snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WTF does the euro have at d7?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 AWT folks..south, cold trend has begun. BTW plow came by again..and I had to shovel end of driveway again..so I'm just leaving now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WTF does the euro have at d7?? Check the 6z DGEX. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Old skewl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Check the 6z DGEX. lol I missed that. Wow....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 WTF does the euro have at d7?? I wondered about that last night's run actually...now the 12z is trying to key in on it, and the GGEM hinted at this the other day, as well...if that were not enough, so too did the 00z NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 JMA goes kamikaze on me and drives the 0C line up to Lake Winni. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If the 0-8d Euro verifies my mom will be looking for property in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 dgex for next saturday and the beat goes on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 dgex for next saturday and the beat goes on... It crushes the Monads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It crushes the Monads. Yup, and I'm just 30 mi. SW of the there. This week could be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 LOl...the Euro is trying to partially phase the polar s/w with the PV and drive this west of us. Kevin frequently harps on the fact that things will trend NW. Suspect we hope that's not the case this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Another threat d10 on the EC. One at a time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lol. GFS ens has snow in the air in NE for like 60hrs this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sfc is damn cold this run....colder than 00z for down here which was already below frz. Sleet over zr???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Kevin frequently harps on the fact that things will trend NW. Suspect we hope that's not the case this time around. The max snow correction vector always points to Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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