dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like even areas like ORH ping for a time, but a very cold system. Close down there. Quite a drop off from H85 to H95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Will said ORH looks all snow and soundings confirm that, but it's damn close. The 850 temps are closer to the 750-800 temps down there. Up here the low level cold is deeper so there is more disparity between 850 and 750. I bet the mid level warming is a signal and that far north (well north of the H85 line for higher levels) is overdone. My own experience is that overrunning events where you still have stubborn llvl cold in an overall very cold regime end up verifying colder. One of the reasons I love them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 We might see a very tight cutoff in big snow like that one...one thing I've noticed on a lot of these analogs is that you see a distinct boundary setup as the overrunning occurs and then the boundary generally doesn't move too much further north. So if we see the snow/sleet line kind of stabilize for a bit to our south, it might just stay there for a lot of the event as the high is still try to ooze colder air down. A lot of times this is not modeled well until late in the game. It doesn't have to happen lke that but its something I noticed when looking at a lot of these setups with the banana high extending from the Canadian prairie. Same thing happened in the Jan 7-8, 1994 storm. At any rate its going to be an interesting system to follow because of the battle between the frigid airmass to the north and the juiced up system to our SW. I know what you mean. It moves steadily north, but then halts. Maybe it waffles 15 miles either way, but 30 miles in latitude could mean 5" or 15", hypothetically. I'm actually rooting for the overrunning appetizer. That weak low should help turn winds nrly after it departs. I love seeing that cold high, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Close down there. Quite a drop off from H85 to H95. Yeah it's like a three hour period where they get just over the 0c line. Mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Pretty strong agreement between Euro ensembles and GEFS means day 8 and 9. Looks like another threat coming up around the 7th-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It might barely ping here but its 95% snow on the GFS. The warmest level on both the 96h and 108h soundings seems to be 825mb down here. Yeah...102 is safe too. Big hit down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm actually liking my latitude possibly for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah...102 is safe too. Big hit down there. Just need the Euro to cool back off. Its a lot of ice here after maybe advisory snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm actually liking my latitude possibly for this one. Kev will be pealing paint while your ripping +sn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm actually liking my latitude possibly for this one. If 1993-94 is rockin' feel free to come a knockin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just need the Euro to cool back off. Its a lot of ice here after maybe advisory snow. You would love an inch of ice right about now...really encapsulate that snowpack of yours for safe keeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm actually liking my latitude possibly for this one. Nothing wrong with adding a little ice pellets to the snow pack. We actually had a couple events like that in 1994...the Jan 7-8, 1994 event included. We pinged a bit at the very height of it and contaminated the pack with a bit of ice...but it made it glacier-like. We still ended up with over a foot from the events though. I'm trying to remember if we briefly pinged in the 1/3/96 event too, but I think we barely hung onto all snow. I think BDL sleeted for a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I bet the mid level warming is a signal and that far north (well north of the H85 line for higher levels) is overdone. My own experience is that overrunning events where you still have stubborn llvl cold in an overall very cold regime end up verifying colder. One of the reasons I love them. Many events like this have the warm layers 850-700mb though. Sometimes it's not modeled that way well and when the event is unfolding everyone is wondering why they are turning to sleet so early. Then actual soundings show the warmest air streaming in at 800mb or something. Maybe I'm a negative nellie, but I'm still concerned about getting pingers up here given how far out we still are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nothing wrong with adding a little ice pellets to the snow pack. We actually had a couple events like that in 1994...the Jan 7-8, 1994 event included. We pinged a bit at the very height of it and contaminated the pack with a bit of ice...but it made it glacier-like. We still ended up with over a foot from the events though. I'm trying to remember if we briefly pinged in the 1/3/96 event too, but I think we barely hung onto all snow. I think BDL sleeted for a bit though. I don't mind a little either. I just posted that because it was the only real time where you pinged. It's a hair warmer in the mid levels for BOS, but not too far off from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You would love an inch of ice right about now...really encapsulate that snowpack of yours for safe keeping. I almost would like to see an inch of ice just out of pure morbid curiosity to see what it would do to the city infrastructure right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nothing wrong with adding a little ice pellets to the snow pack. We actually had a couple events like that in 1994...the Jan 7-8, 1994 event included. We pinged a bit at the very height of it and contaminated the pack with a bit of ice...but it made it glacier-like. We still ended up with over a foot from the events though. I'm trying to remember if we briefly pinged in the 1/3/96 event too, but I think we barely hung onto all snow. I think BDL sleeted for a bit though. I pinged in both, I'm pretty sure I remember that. I think I may have even mixed with rain in the '96 one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I almost would like to see an inch of ice just out of pure morbid curiosity to see what it would do to the city infrastructure right now. I want to see Kevin shovel 6" of sleet onto his Mt Everest snowbanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Many events like this have the warm layers 850-700mb though. Sometimes it's not modeled that way well and when the event is unfolding everyone is wondering why they are turning to sleet so early. Then actual soundings show the warmest air streaming in at 800mb or something. Maybe I'm a negative nellie, but I'm still concerned about getting pingers up here given how far out we still are. Sleet will roll in and out but my guess is it would be shocking (to me) for you not not to have >95% snow and for me not to have >75%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I pinged in both, I'm pretty sure I remember that. I think I may have even mixed with rain in the '96 one. Impressive especially since I think BOS came in with over a foot of snow anyway. That '96 storm had a ton of qpf. It just was a firehose from the SW for like 30 hours straight, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 If 1993-94 is rockin' feel free to come a knockin' I know you have been hammering 1993-1994 ... I think the differences here are a bit more demonstrative, though - Jerry. 1993-1994 was a year marked by an exceptionally positive NAO. So positive, as a matter of fact, that it really crossed over a threshold and induced our negative departures. The SPV became so mammoth in eastern Canada and the D-Straight/Greenland areas that it back-drilled the NW flow into the GL-OV-NE. Contrasting...a typical +NAO is more confined up N-NNE with the SPV, such that the prevailing westerlies can lock more Pacific air and swath it across said areas for the climo-expectation of warmth in more typical +NAO. This season is entirely different. This is a year marked by predominating negative NAO. Those entirely disparate total characteristics requires the breakdown of analog. In other words, this really isn't a 1993-1994 analog year. That said, this system in particular might take on some of that appeal, because indeed the SPV is strong N of us, and that is locking confluence in ... strong southern stream incurring on that would cause a pretty impressive overrunning signal regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I want to see Kevin shovel 6" of sleet onto his Mt Everest snowbanks. on the way out today I have to drive near his house, and I'm about to try to find it just to see what those things look like in person. The fact that he shovels them like that boggles my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Actually, it may have been the 1/8/94 storm, where I changed to rain. I think that storm was the famous gravity wave that came up from the MA and gave Logan a gust to 66mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What does Tuesday thru Thursday look like in terms of snow ice accums. in the Greater Waterbury area in Connecticut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Impressive especially since I think BOS came in with over a foot of snow anyway. That '96 storm had a ton of qpf. It just was a firehose from the SW for like 30 hours straight, lol. I was as sophomore in the Met program up at UML - I remember thinking, 'my god- it can't NOT snow this year' during that event - because already there was scuttlebutt in the Met community about the Meg Blizzard that was showing up on the AVN, we had 24" on the ground already, and it was 1/4 mile vis out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know you have been hammering 1993-1994 ... I think the differences here are a bit more demonstrative, though - Jerry. 1993-1994 was a year marked by an exceptionally positive NAO. So positive, as a matter of fact, that it really crossed over a threshold and induced our negative departures. The SPV became so mammoth in eastern Canada and the D-Straight/Greenland areas that it back-drilled the NW flow into the GL-OV-NE. Contrasting...a typical +NAO is more confined up N-NNE with the SPV, such that the prevailing westerlies can lock more Pacific air and swath it across said areas for the climo-expectation of warmth in more typical +NAO. This season is entirely different. This is a year marked by predominating negative NAO. Those entirely disparate total characteristics requires the breakdown of analog. In other words, this really isn't a 1993-1994 analog year. That said, this system in particular might take on some of that appeal, because indeed the SPV is strong N of us, and that is locking confluence in ... strong southern stream incurring on that would cause a pretty impressive overrunning signal regardless. John, The previous pattern this winter was not '93-'94-esque, you are def right about that, but this current one most certainly is. Its why like 3 different storms have popped up from that season on the CIPS analog site the past 2 or 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know you have been hammering 1993-1994 ... I think the differences here are a bit more demonstrative, though - Jerry. 1993-1994 was a year marked by an exceptionally positive NAO. So positive, as a matter of fact, that it really crossed over a threshold and induced our negative departures. The SPV became so mammoth in eastern Canada and the D-Straight/Greenland areas that it back-drilled the NW flow into the GL-OV-NE. Contrasting...a typical +NAO is more confined up N-NNE with the SPV, such that the prevailing westerlies can lock more Pacific air and swath it across said areas for the climo-expectation of warmth in more typical +NAO. This season is entirely different. This is a year marked by predominating negative NAO. Those entirely disparate total characteristics requires the breakdown of analog. In other words, this really isn't a 1993-1994 analog year. That said, this system in particular might take on some of that appeal, because indeed the SPV is strong N of us, and that is locking confluence in ... strong southern stream incurring on that would cause a pretty impressive overrunning signal regardless. I know that of course but the upcoming pattern sure resembles it's best moments...at least this week's pattern. It's like the teleconnections are handing off to ensure we stay cold and snowy somehow before a stronger NAO returns. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Actually, it may have been the 1/8/94 storm, where I changed to rain. I think that storm was the famous gravity wave that came up from the MA and gave Logan a gust to 66mph. My girlfiend broke up with me on the school bus during that storm. Kinda ruined it for me. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Actually, it may have been the 1/8/94 storm, where I changed to rain. I think that storm was the famous gravity wave that came up from the MA and gave Logan a gust to 66mph. January 4 1994. Check this out. This was wild. SPECI KBOS 041504Z 02038G57KT 1/4SM -SNPL -BLSN OVC/// OVC016 A//// RMK R04RVR06V14 SIPBS8 PRESFR WND 33V07 DRFTG SNW SLPNO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'll be up at Plymouth for this one, so I'm hoping this can hold on, or maybe tick north just a bit, but not too much -- I want to be seeing some epic snow depth pictures from Will and Kev! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 My girlfiend broke up with me on the school bus during that storm. Kinda ruined it for me. lol. Her loss...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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