Arnold214 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The MEkster Inc t-shirts had the slogan: SWFE: The snow comes sooner, but so does the sleet. lol. Except for 12/16/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Good weekend to clear around foundations and make river valleys away from houses Hope it gets colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like another 12-24 for SNE to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 A December 2008-esque ice storm would do wonders right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lol. Except for 12/16/07. Yeah no kidding, lol. It was pelting BBs up in Watertown NY and Glens Falls NY while it was ripping +SN over SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This run actually keeps me all snow....nice. Maybe 1 or pingers at the very height of it. GFS is pretty cold for the interior for 2m this many hours out. My 2m temp pretty much hangs in the mid-upper 10s. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Heavy heavy snow in NNE. Big hit. Huge. Snow up this way my friend, This is my favorite storm track SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 juicy Looking better. Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like an ice storm down here...perhaps a sleet fest...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS is pretty cold for the interior for 2m this many hours out. My 2m temp pretty much hangs in the mid-upper 10s. Not bad. What do you think for ratios, 12-15:1 or better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The concept of the initial low end warning event first seen ironically by the long term NAM for Tuesday now has legs. NAM cred growing by the event it seems in signals. Then, for me, I see snow to sleet to snow. That's per most of guidance. Net result. Big net gain and bad stuff for elderly shut ins. Lord forgive me but Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like an ice storm down here...perhaps a sleet fest...interesting. Kevin is going to look like Schwarzenegger after catapulting 6" of snow and 9" of sleet over his mountain range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like an ice storm down here...perhaps a sleet fest...interesting. Were you around here in 2007/08? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 One of the top analogs that keeps popping up for this one is 1/2/96...it actually mostly occurred on 1/3/96 for here http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1996/us0102.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1996/us0103.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Were you around here in 2007/08? nah...I've experienced a few significant/major icing events in BUF though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 wow looks like a very close call around the pike...lots of snow .....prob pingers at the height....... mobilize the national guard? 3-6 tuesday over running. then another 3-6... or 5-10 prior to a flip to IP wednesday People better clear their roofs this weekend!!!!! The gym i work at has a giant flat roof......perhaps i should suggest they shovel the shat off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 One of the top analogs that keeps popping up for this one is 1/2/96...it actually mostly occurred on 1/3/96 for here http://www.meteo.psu...1996/us0102.php http://www.meteo.psu...1996/us0103.php That was a great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Talk about perturbed flow at d7 on the Euro. Any number of scenarios there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 wow looks like a very close call around the pike...lots of snow .....prob pingers at the height....... mobilize the national guard? 3-6 tuesday over running. then another 3-6... or 5-10 prior to a flip to IP wednesday People better clear their roofs this weekend!!!!! The gym i work at has a giant flat roof......perhaps i should suggest they shovel the shat off. I would if i was you if you want to continue going there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What do you think for ratios, 12-15:1 or better? Way too early for that.Looking at soundings...the GFS is really warm at 750-800mb. Much warmer than 850mb. So wave the sleet flag further north of the 850 0C line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Big doings again....wow. We'll pick up 18Z at the GTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I like the low level cold signal on the GFS. All of Maine i.e the source region, is frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 One of the top analogs that keeps popping up for this one is 1/2/96...it actually mostly occurred on 1/3/96 for here http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1996/us0102.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1996/us0103.php Had 10" from that one here at gyx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 One of the top analogs that keeps popping up for this one is 1/2/96...it actually mostly occurred on 1/3/96 for here http://www.meteo.psu...1996/us0102.php http://www.meteo.psu...1996/us0103.php That gives strong support to my argument the 500mb pattern does not argue for a low in the TN Valley as deep as the NAM or GFS want to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That was a great storm. We might see a very tight cutoff in big snow like that one...one thing I've noticed on a lot of these analogs is that you see a distinct boundary setup as the overrunning occurs and then the boundary generally doesn't move too much further north. So if we see the snow/sleet line kind of stabilize for a bit to our south, it might just stay there for a lot of the event as the high is still try to ooze colder air down. A lot of times this is not modeled well until late in the game. It doesn't have to happen lke that but its something I noticed when looking at a lot of these setups with the banana high extending from the Canadian prairie. Same thing happened in the Jan 7-8, 1994 storm. At any rate its going to be an interesting system to follow because of the battle between the frigid airmass to the north and the juiced up system to our SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like even areas like ORH ping for a time, but a very cold system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Way too early for that. Looking at soundings...the GFS is really warm at 750-800mb. Much warmer than 850mb. So wave the sleet flag further north of the 850 0C line. Will said ORH looks all snow and soundings confirm that, but it's damn close. The 850 temps are closer to the 750-800 temps down there. Up here the low level cold is deeper so there is more disparity between 850 and 750. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Had 10" from that one here at gyx. I pretty much got as much snow from that one here as the blizzard a few days later. That storm was great, it was strung out over like 30-36 hours. Had 14" I think. Maybe an inch more in the blizzard. It had a ridiculous cutoff though. I don't think the south coast to NYC got much of any snow...it was a sleetfest/ZR event there after maybe a couple inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 major ice storm signal up through NW CT and SW MA too? I have to tell my parents they might wanna consider getting someone to shovel the roof if so, cause I'm at school and can't do it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Will said ORH looks all snow and soundings confirm that, but it's damn close. The 850 temps are closer to the 750-800 temps down there. Up here the low level cold is deeper so there is more disparity between 850 and 750. It might barely ping here but its 95% snow on the GFS. The warmest level on both the 96h and 108h soundings seems to be 825mb down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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