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Epic winter signal continues to beam


Typhoon Tip

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The concept of the initial low end warning event first seen ironically by the long term NAM for Tuesday now has legs. NAM cred growing by the event it seems in signals. Then, for me, I see snow to sleet to snow. That's per most of guidance. Net result. Big net gain and bad stuff for elderly shut ins. Lord forgive me but Bring it!

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wow looks like a very close call around the pike...lots of snow .....prob pingers at the height.......

mobilize the national guard?

3-6 tuesday over running.

then another 3-6... or 5-10 prior to a flip to IP wednesday

People better clear their roofs this weekend!!!!! The gym i work at has a giant flat roof......perhaps i should suggest they shovel the shat off.

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wow looks like a very close call around the pike...lots of snow .....prob pingers at the height.......

mobilize the national guard?

3-6 tuesday over running.

then another 3-6... or 5-10 prior to a flip to IP wednesday

People better clear their roofs this weekend!!!!! The gym i work at has a giant flat roof......perhaps i should suggest they shovel the shat off.

I would if i was you if you want to continue going there

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One of the top analogs that keeps popping up for this one is 1/2/96...it actually mostly occurred on 1/3/96 for here

http://www.meteo.psu...1996/us0102.php

http://www.meteo.psu...1996/us0103.php

That gives strong support to my argument the 500mb pattern does not argue for a low in the TN Valley as deep as the NAM or GFS want to show.

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That was a great storm.

We might see a very tight cutoff in big snow like that one...one thing I've noticed on a lot of these analogs is that you see a distinct boundary setup as the overrunning occurs and then the boundary generally doesn't move too much further north. So if we see the snow/sleet line kind of stabilize for a bit to our south, it might just stay there for a lot of the event as the high is still try to ooze colder air down.

A lot of times this is not modeled well until late in the game. It doesn't have to happen lke that but its something I noticed when looking at a lot of these setups with the banana high extending from the Canadian prairie.

Same thing happened in the Jan 7-8, 1994 storm.

At any rate its going to be an interesting system to follow because of the battle between the frigid airmass to the north and the juiced up system to our SW.

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Way too early for that.

Looking at soundings...the GFS is really warm at 750-800mb. Much warmer than 850mb. So wave the sleet flag further north of the 850 0C line.

Will said ORH looks all snow and soundings confirm that, but it's damn close. The 850 temps are closer to the 750-800 temps down there. Up here the low level cold is deeper so there is more disparity between 850 and 750.
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Had 10" from that one here at gyx.

I pretty much got as much snow from that one here as the blizzard a few days later. That storm was great, it was strung out over like 30-36 hours. Had 14" I think. Maybe an inch more in the blizzard.

It had a ridiculous cutoff though. I don't think the south coast to NYC got much of any snow...it was a sleetfest/ZR event there after maybe a couple inches of snow.

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Will said ORH looks all snow and soundings confirm that, but it's damn close. The 850 temps are closer to the 750-800 temps down there. Up here the low level cold is deeper so there is more disparity between 850 and 750.

It might barely ping here but its 95% snow on the GFS. The warmest level on both the 96h and 108h soundings seems to be 825mb down here.

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