dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Bufkit based on the 06z gfs had 18.9" for GYX........ 12z GFS may come a bit north from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 kevin would probably get a roof-caving 1-2" of rain at 32-34 degrees verbatim. I have this V-Day 07 fear that when all is said and done I get 10" of snow followed by 2" of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z GFS may come a bit north from 6z. Its looking like it may just based on wjat it looks like at hr75, Looks like a nice long duration event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Very first physically detectable difference in solar rad on the season taking place, as is typically the case nearing February 1. Every year, however, February 10 is the real magical date - so to speak - where a sunny day means a lot more radiation-wise than any date since the previous November 10. This is not formal science, no. It is just a little geek thing of mine I've noticed over the years: Parking a car - say - in a parking lot on February 10 onward is a good way to heat the inside of said car on an otherwise cold day. On Feb 10 and Nov 10 every spring and autumn, we cross over thresholds in sun angle - going positive in the former, negative in the latter. Like everything in nature there are no real boundaries, though - these dates of mine, too, suffer the same detection skewing. 'What is that, a tropical or extratropical cyclone out there?' These are demarcations we human's put on the fluid spectra of nature in an attempt to try and quantize order in the name science, rational thought, and logic...etc... This morning, it is sunny-like here in Ayer, and though we remain below freezing, the south side of my roof top, facing the sun, is currently rumbling down big slabs of snow - thank goodness, because I do not own a roof rake, and like most would otherwise need one heading into mid week . But, this is the first time a sunny day has had the radiative power to act on the blackness of the roof, to induce avalanches in an otherwise cold atmosphere. S,o that area of the electromagnetic intensity spectrum is upon us. 12 days from now that geek-door is already opening. For me, that is really when the cellar door opens and it gets harder and harder in eroding increments, everyday, until it is just simply May 1 and highly unlikely to happen until the ides of the following November. Last year, we had exceptionally ideal spring. I don't recall one backdoor cold front, and certainly not one interval lasting longer that a day or 2 when we suffered the more typical diarrhea month, April. I have since acquiring my own land taken up gardening with enthusiasm. This has provided a wonderful elixir for the horrible ennui that can otherwise be of the mud season in spring. April is now a month pleasantly distracted by the logistical planning, and even cultivating, as well as planting of the early hardier harvests. There is nothing like coming home from work after a stressful day at the office, donning in one's gardening belt, and slowly ambling up and down the aisles pruning and picking during mid summer's lingering vestigial evening daylight and heat. Throw in the distant rumble of thunder from a side-lit cumulonimbus, and it is gold. Who knows what this spring will hold? Last year, I firmly expected a belated warm season due to the presence of a -NAO persistently drilling vorticity maxima southeast toward out of eastern Quebec toward our Maritimes, sweeping mirth killing cold wedge after cold wedge across our area. Did not happen. The NAO seemed to just give up nearing March - really. Hence began the incredible 10 month above normal period. Whatever happens this go, I don't know about you folks, but I couldn't live in any other latitude. But I digress... hehe. Let's see. Based on everything I have looked at this morning this is a long duration light snow event slated for this week, with a couple of 6 hour periods where moderate snow would take place. This, notwithstanding any coastal headaches or climo on such events for lower CT-RI and SE MA. Quivel over that as we see fit - . There is lower probability in my mind for icing from this, even though at first glance that would appear to be so in the synoptic layout. The reason is that the magnitude of the arctic air; in this case just as in others in the past, the models will be too liberal in the amount that gets eroded, modifying lower tropospheric thickness some circa-100 miles or so too far on the N side of mean polar boundary. I'd take the mean of the 0C 850 placement and click it south 50 or so miles... I would also plan for icing between said boundary to points ~ 50 miles S of the 0C 850. Also, just because it is +1C at 850 doesn't mean icing, it doesn't mean you even have much IP. The fall velocity of frozen hydro-meteoroids is fast enough to pass through 1C intervening layer of warmth and survive that phase state. You really need it over 2C, and thick enough at that. Obviously this is all much to specific, but just some early thoughts. The governing look to this is that SPV up N of here is drilling a strong lateral confluence with the more southern stream, into the upper GL and Onterio areas. Nothing will penetrate that. Even the mightily west- biased GGEM is capitulating. More over, I have pretty much never - EVER - seen a warm solution win when such an aligning of deep layer streams had taken on that orientation. Cold, always.... If anything, I would be concerned that the whole package of events doesn't end up south, in which case we're watchers. Barring that, this appears that you got an interesting situation for SNE. Many areas ...really can't handle more snow. If the ground were bare, we probably would call it a low impact, long duration event. But because there is the antecedent issue with snow removal, not too mention navigating around in these 6-9' tall hallways we've created being difficult, having 4-12" of snow over 48 hours with perhaps (yes) a little ice thrown on top changes the stakes a bit. That converts this to higher impact. Tip, this gets my vote for post of the year! Excellent multi-faceted discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I have this V-Day 07 fear that when all is said and done I get 10" of snow followed by 2" of sleet. How'd GC do in that event? I was living in ME at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z GFS may come a bit north from 6z. and a bit juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I would think you are in an awfully good position there for this kind of event. While I'm due west of the NH/MA border...I always seem to get some mix with a lot of these sw flow deals. But I'm still hoping it's primarily snow. Andy is also looking golden in GLF imo. I have this V-Day 07 fear that when all is said and done I get 10" of snow followed by 2" of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Overrunning snows into SNE/CNE 78-84hr. 0C 850 up to NYC at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I have this V-Day 07 fear that when all is said and done I get 10" of snow followed by 2" of sleet. 2+" frozen? And this is bad? If my roof was flat, I'd hate this, but as a snow fiend, I'd love it - certainly take it over a miss, rain, or even 10" snow by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 and a bit juicier. Yes qpf is not lacking for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Would be interesting if that were to take place on the heels of the modest warning snows per the NAM. Although, like Rick said, the NAM looks like it's scouring out any of the cold air--at least below the MA/CT line prior to the Wednesday system. Just got in from some back woods snowshoeing. Good workout.. Nice warm day. 27.8 Might be going to Northfield Mtn Sunday to snowshoe... Icicles everywhere are huge. My neighbor had one that is at least 8 feet long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A December 2008-esque ice storm would do wonders right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 996mb into S OH at 96. 0C 850 along Mass Pike at 102 with the heavier snows into SNE/CNE. Looks like a big hit for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A December 2008-esque ice storm would do wonders right now. Certainly is on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A December 2008-esque ice storm would do wonders right now. No, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Overrunning snows into SNE/CNE 78-84hr. 0C 850 up to NYC at 84. Rule #1 of a SWFE, the precip always comes in faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Rule #1 of a SWFE, the precip always comes in faster than modeled. The MEkster Inc t-shirts had the slogan: SWFE: The snow comes sooner, but so does the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Rule #1 of a SWFE, the precip always comes in faster than modeled. Cold air on the backside is all the way down into southern texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Let's hope it trends south for our friends in CT. That's epic rains coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 man this could be a headache.. Snow, Ice, Sleet maybe rain then back to snow.. what a winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The MEkster Inc t-shirts had the slogan: SWFE: The snow comes sooner, but so does the sleet. Just a classic event on the 12z GFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Let's hope it trends south for our friends in CT. That's epic rains coming. we would honestly be screwed down here if that happened. Every drain is completely covered. Dump trucks have been working 48 hours straight on campus trying to get snow out of here. There's tunnels above everyone's heads down here and water will be forced to take a very specific direction. Combine that with melt...I don't even know what to imagine that would look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I urge everyone to remember the long duration MECS of early January 1994. Modeling was even warmer than this event. Many areas got 12-18+. The key issue was the duration. An initial push (on a Tuesday fwiw) followed by waves of snow/sleet that was mainly snow above the MA/RI/CT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 we would honestly be screwed down here if that happened. Every drain is completely covered. Dump trucks have been working 48 hours straight on campus trying to get snow out of here. There's tunnels above everyone's heads down here and water will be forced to take a very specific direction. Combine that with melt...I don't even know what to imagine that would look like It would be a big ice storm down in CT probably...not plain rain except for the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like another 12-24 for SNE to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This run actually keeps me all snow....nice. Maybe 1 or pingers at the very height of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like another 12-24 for SNE to me lock it up man snow from tuesday am thru thurs midday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Heavy heavy snow in NNE. Big hit. Huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like another 12-24 for SNE to me Kevin I think all this snow has gone to your head lol, that's major icing even for you. At best it looks like a 6 to 10 inch front end dump with lots of sleet and lots of freezing rain, but your temps probably don't get above 30F this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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